Talladega is hilarious. And maddening! It’s a neverending exercise of half-off-the-seat excitement, fully slouched disappointment, confusion at how your driver can go from first to worst in a matter of minutes, frustration that your driver can get a pit road speeding penalty, and a mix of horror and happiness (depending on how it affects your driver) when someone accidentally takes out half the field in a wreck. Like Kyle Busch the week prior, Ross Chastain snuck in at the last minute after a last-lap bump, grind, and wreck. And it was equal parts frustrating and fun.
Don’t expect that kind of a sneak attack this week at Dover. The Monster Mile is a bit tamer, though still wild in its own way, and many of these drivers are fully capable of completing the course without an issue in the final half lap. I’m going old-school this week with the drivers who are ready to pull on their fire suits and do some serious racing—some for their first win of the season.
Behold my NASCAR fantasy picks for the race this week at Dover Motor Speedway.
Brilliant – These expert fantasy picks for NASCAR have the best shot at a win this weekend
Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. is back in the comfortable seat at Dover. I was surprised at his fine performance at Talladega, usually a tough spot for the No 19, but it shows promise for the future. I think he’s warming up again, and that makes him a smart expert pick for NASCAR fantasy this week.
Dover Wins: 3
Top 5 finishes: 9
Top 10 finishes: 18
Kyle Larson
I think most people expected to see Kyle Larson in the top five every week after last year’s amazing comeback. Though he has one win and has been in the top-five for the last two weeks in a row, he ran into a freezing-cold streak that started after Vegas. Larson has really good numbers at The Monster Mile and coupled with his recent warm-up, I’m looking at a possible win for the Number 5 on Sunday.
Dover Wins: 1
Top 5 finishes: 7
Top 10 finishes: 10
Kevin Harvick
One of the few times you’ll see Kevin Harvick on the Brilliant list. But, come on, he really needs a win. I think he has one in him, but it’s been such a crazy season. Whether Happy Harvick actually tops this race or not, I can almost guarantee that he’ll end up with a single-digit finish and a bunch of stage points—as he has done eight out of the last nine times he’s hit this track.
Dover Wins: 3
Top 5 finishes: 10
Top 10 finishes: 22
Bold – Here’s my NASCAR fantasy advice on this week’s sleeper picks
Alex Bowman
The last driver of the No 48 car was amazing at Dover Motor Speedway, and the current driver isn’t too bad, either. His last four out of five finishes here have fallen in the top five and his last four out of five finishes this season have fallen inside the top-10. Watch out for NASCAR’s Alex Bowman this week: he’s an expert fantasy pick.
Dover Wins: 1
Top 5 finishes: 4
Top 10 finishes: 4
Chase Elliott
When I looked at Chase Elliott’s numbers this season, I was kind of surprised at how good they are. He seems to fall quietly under the radar each week; can you believe that he’s only finished outside the top-10 three times? He’s been great at Dover over the years, and his poor finishes usually came from accidents or engine failures. I think the number 9 might surprise everyone with his first win of the season when he hits The Monster Mile on Sunday.
Dover Wins: 1
Top 5 finishes: 8
Top 10 finishes: 8
Cole Custer
My fantasy sleeper pick, Cole Custer, has finished 10th twice and 11th once in his three NASCAR Cup Series races at Dover. Though his season has been a bit of a mess, there’s no reason why this SHR driver can’t get his first 2022 trip to Victory Lane on Sunday.
Dover Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 0
Top 10 finishes: 2
Bonkers – Stay away from these drivers in your NASCAR fantasy racing lineup this week
Chris Beuscher
It’s been a so-so season for Chris Beuscher that’s cock full of ups and downs. Things may look up as the summer gets hotter, but right now the number 17 is so cool, it’s best to leave him out of your NASCAR fantasy lineup this week.
Dover Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 0
Top 10 finishes: 0
Austin Dillon
Despite Austin Dillon’s good runs this season, and potential warm streak, I don’t think he’s up for the task in Dover. He has had a couple of decent finishes here, but nothing to write home about.
Dover Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 0
Top 10 finishes: 3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
A typical winner on the superspeedways, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. hasn’t been able to do much even there yet this season. I’m gonna say it’s a hard no on the number 47 this week.
Dover Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 0
Top 10 finishes: 3
