The offseason — such a wonderfully chaotic time of year when we see some of our favorite players move to new teams. New hopes emerge, the grass gets greener, and new potential fantasy football stars are born.
At least that’s what happens in a perfect world.
The offseason, for all of its wonder, can also be a dark place for fantasy players. Dynasty and redraft players alike sit in absolute fear that their guy will end up going into a terrible situation. Players watch and pray as we see running backs take visits to fantasy dead zones like New England, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. Wide receivers take visits to truly terrifying places like, well, New England, New York (pick one), and Houston.
We watch with bated breath as our favorite players see new opportunities emerge, or see valuable touches potentially fade into the abyss as new players sign onto their teams. Sometimes, the grass is so much greener for players, for example, Stefon Diggs going to Buffalo. Other times, it is an absolute disaster that ruins a once-great player, wave hi to the people, Kenny Golladay.
This offseason has been unlike any I have ever seen in my time watching football. Huge names have moved around and huge dollar amounts have been given out. With so much going on there has to be a way to make sense of it, especially from a fantasy football perspective.
Fear not, I am here to help.
This article will focus on 3 players who saw their value do the equivalent of the rocket ship emoji and go way up, and 3 who saw their value faceplant.
3 Fantasy Players Who Have Gained Value
Amari Cooper – Traded from Dallas Cowboys to Cleveland Browns
Amari Cooper going from the Cowboys to the Browns at first looked like it was going to be a disaster for him. Baker Mayfield has never shown he can really thrive at the NFL level and a run-heavy scheme from head coach Kevin Stefanski spelled doom for the former first-round pick.
However, a light at the end of the tunnel emerged in the form of embattled QB Deshaun Watson. Now, there is still the status of Watson’s court cases to worry about, but should he avoid a season-long suspension a big year could be expected out of Cooper. We know Deshaun loves to feed his No. 1 guy (think DeAndre Hopkins) and with how much Cleveland shelled out for Watson I doubt a run-heavy approach is coming.
Look for Cleveland to open the playbook a bit more with the talent upgrades and let it fly. Cooper profiles as a high-end WR2, with WR1 upside now, but at a WR3/Flex cost. Dynasty players should be willing to part with that back end 1st for Cooper straight up.
Allen Lazard – Devante Adams traded from Green Bay Packers to Las Vegas Raiders
This is a case of addition by subtraction. Not necessarily for the Packers, but certainly for young receiver Allen Lazard. Rodgers remained in Green Bay, but Devante Adams did not, which means Lazard is the main guy by default as it stands right now. While the Packers did address the position in the draft, Lazard should still see a big uptick in production.
Lazard is a big and fast receiver who has a Hall of Fame QB throwing to him — Rodgers also has shown that he really values the time building relationships with his guys. Remember: Adams didn’t burst onto the scene right away, Jordy Nelson left (for the Raiders as well, for what that’s worth) and Adams ascended. Who says the same can’t happen to Lazard? He’s worth the flier in the later single-digit rounds in redraft and worth a 2nd in dynasty.
Allen Robinson – Traded from Chicago Bears to Los Angeles Rams
A-Rob fans everywhere, rejoice! We have finally seen Allen Robinson freed from the absolute mess of a playbook that was Matt Nagy’s system and now we see him assuming the Robert Woods role in the Rams offense, that being the primary recipient of the intermediate/deep passing attack from QB Matthew Stafford.
For years we the fans have prayed that Robinson would finally get the QB he deserves and now he has it. Allen Robinson is back in the elite WR2 conversation, with Cooper Kupp unlikely to repeat his historic season (I know 17 games and whatever). Add to that the very real talent jump from Woods to Robinson and the QB upgrade from Bortles, Foles, and a rookie Fields to Stafford, A-Rob is back in our hearts as a fantasy stud!
3 Fantasy Players Who Have Lost Value
Tyreek Hill- Traded from Kansas City Chiefs to Miami Dolphins
This is not a Tyreek Hill post, this is a Tua post. The drop-off in talent at the QB position for Hill this year is huge. I mean massive. Just a real pothole to the tire kind of hit to our hearts with this one.
Typically the first or second WR off the board in most fantasy drafts, Tyreek is facing uncertainty for the first time in years. The premier deep threat in the NFL he goes from gunslinger Mahomes, to check down, throwing screens in his own endzone Tua Tagovailoa. If you are wondering why I am so worried, look no further than Hill’s new teammate Jaylen Waddle.
An elite deep threat in college, he had an aDot average depth of target) of 7.1 yards. That was the 2nd worst mark in the NFL among receivers with 100 targets (per CBS Sports). The only thing Tyreek Hill will be throwing up deuces to from now on will be his WR1 status, he’s now an over-priced WR2 in an offense we have no idea what it will look like. I’m staying away at this point.
Darren Waller- Devante Adams traded from Green Bay Packers to Las Vegas Raiders
While Allen Lazard benefitted from addition by subtraction, Darren Waller is seeing a subtraction by addition. Adams opened up 150+ targets for Lazard to try and take, but he is now going to command those targets in Las Vegas. That means that Darren Waller, a stalwart of the top 3 at tight end, will be seeing a significant decrease in targets.
I am saying this now, and I am holding to it, Waller is no longer a top 5 tight end in fantasy football. I would take Andrews, Kelce, Pitts, Kittle, and Goedert over him right now, and there are a few I would consider as well. Waller didn’t look totally right last year, and now being the second, or potentially third option for Vegas just doesn’t fill me with excitement. Don’t spend the capital on him, take a different guy and maybe take a later tight end in the draft.
DK Metcalf – Russell Wilson was traded from Seattle Seahawks to Denver Broncos
As far as stars who saw a decrease in their value I don’t know if anyone took the hit DK Metcalf did. The drop-off in talent from Russ to Geno/Drew is staggering. If you wonder why you aren’t seeing Tyler Lockett here as well, that’s because his route running and skill set is built to be pretty QB proof and keep him in the WR2/Flex territory which is where he thrives anyway. DK is a top 10 guy when Russ was cooking, but now could see a finish outside of the top 20 due to the reduction in talent.
Look for Seattle to go back to the Marshawn Lynch kind of days where they ran on first, second, and third down with regularity. Unless a significant QB upgrade comes along I am not taking Metcalf at his price, I’ll take a much more sure thing like Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, or Keenan Allen.
