As we look ahead to Week 1 of the NFL season, most of us are drafting our final fantasy teams and making lineup decisions based on minimal pre-season information and the words of beat reporters at every training camp.
There is so much variance on a year-to-year basis in the NFL that it can be hard to handicap players’ performances in the first couple of weeks but I believe I have identified some great spots for a handful of players who should surpass expectations on pure volume alone.
Using the sportsbooks betting lines on individual players is a great way to get an idea of their expected output on any given week. This can be a great tool when looking to handicap your own fantasy team and make the tough decisions needed to win your league.
We all want the trophy for winning our respective leagues but let’s be honest, the cash prize is always extra motivating, so why not stuff our pockets all year long?
Matt Gay (LAR) o6.5 kicking points – Thu 8:20 pm EST
We start with the opening game of the 2022 season and you may be reading this scratching your head but a deeper dive into the game shows that this isn’t as far out of left field as you may think.
The total for this game has been set at 52.5 points, which is the second highest on the entire Week 1 slate and is expected to be a high-scoring affair between two of the best teams in the NFL. We can expect both teams to move the ball and have lots of possessions, not to mention that the game is a kicker-friendly environment at Sofi stadium in Los Angeles.
Going back to last season Matt Gay surpassed this number in 17/24 games (including the postseason) with two of those misses coming on the road. He was tremendously efficient last season with the 2nd best field goal percentage, finishing the year at 94.1%, and also 2nd in total points with 144.
With the Rams expected to put up 24+ points, we may only need 1 field goal to get past this number. Their potent offense should be able to get into field goal range multiple times in this game and allow Gay to easily surpass this number.
Jameis Winston (NO) o1.5 passing td – Sun 1 pm EST
Coming into this season as the number one quarterback for the New Orleans Saints, Jameis Winston looks to prove he is still the same guy that threw for over 5,100 yards back in 2019 with the Buccaneers.
He gets a cupcake matchup to open the year as the Saints visit the lowly Atlanta Falcons and their 29th-ranked passing defense (DVOA) along with the return of his number one wide receiver, Michael Thomas, who should be ready to go after missing the majority of 2021 due to multiple injuries. Winston threw for 14 touchdowns in 7 starts last season and hit this over in 3/6 games (injured in the other)
Thomas, along with star running back Alvin Kamara and newly drafted first-round pick Chris Olave, should give Winston the weapons to carve up the Falcons through the air and get over this number to make a statement right out of the gate.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) o56.5 receiving yards – Mon 8:20 pm EST
In the final game of Week 1, we have the return of Russell Wilson to Seattle in what should be an emotional game for both sides. Having spent his entire 10-year career playing for the Seahawks, I expect Russell to come out firing and Courtland Sutton should be the beneficiary.
Sutton finished the 2021 season seventh in air yards and second in aDOT, both of which fit Russell Wilson’s style of quarterbacking to this point in his career as he finished last season number one overall in air yards thrown. The Broncos are expected to be a high-octane offense this year and with Wilson looking for that elusive first MVP award, he will be looking to pass early and often vs a Seahawks defense that finished second last in passing yards against.
Courtland should stretch the field for the Broncos and have no problem against the Seahawks’ secondary. This number will be well into the 60–70-yard range by as early as Week 2, let’s jump on it now.
