Continuing our early 2018 fantasy football PPR mock draft, we conclude with the fourth round. Which players offer the best value and which ones are potential busts? Keep reading to find out.
Note: This is the last round of a four-round mock draft. These rankings are not final and will change as the season draws closer. View the first round, second round, and third round.
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4.01. Derrius Guice – RB – Washington Redskins
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2018 NFL Draft was LSU running back Derrius Guice falling to the Washington Redskins at the end of the second round. Guice was seen as a late first- or early second-round prospect by most draft analysts, but alleged character concerns caused team after team to pass up Leonard Fournette’s successor.
In Washington, Guice falls into a great situation for a rookie running back behind one of the better offensive lines in the league. Pro Football Focus ranked the Redskins’ line 21st in the NFL in 2017, but Washington struggled with injuries all season long as 11 different linemen played at least 140 snaps in the trenches. Heading into 2018, both right guard Brandon Scherff and left tackle Trent Williams are fully healthy, meaning the line should return back to the heights it reached in 2016 when the unit ranked seventh in the league.
Furthermore, Guice is a top three running back prospect in the 2018 class, as his College Dominator and college yards per carry are both above the 70th percentile despite playing in the best conference in college football. Chris Thompson will steal passing down work, but he has struggled to stay on the field during his time in the NFL and it’s feasible that Guice assumes work on third downs by the end of the season; after all, he did play slot receiver in high school, so his lack of pass-catching pedigree in college is likely more due to LSU’s offensive scheme than it is Guice’s receiving ability. Due to Guice’s obvious talent and the strength of the Washington offensive line, the LSU product is a strong selection in the early fourth round of drafts.
4.02. Sony Michel – RB – New England Patriots
The Patriots shocked the NFL community when they selected Georgia running back Sony Michel with the 31st pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. Michel’s college dominator rating (27.5%) and target share (10.4%) were both above average for running back prospects despite the fact that he shared a backfield with second-round NFL Draft pick Nick Chubb at Georgia. The departure of Dion Lewis opens up 215 touches in the New England backfield and Michel is most likely to absorb those touches considering the draft capital the Patriots spent on him.
Michel profiles as one of the best pass-catching running backs in this year’s class and New England has ranked in the top twelve in total targets thrown to running backs in each of the last five seasons, including three seasons in the top six. Michel’s ability in the passing game gives him a stable floor in PPR leagues. Michel’s soft hands and crisp routes aren’t the best part of his ability in the passing game though. He also ranked 13th out of 60 draft-eligible backs in pass-blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus. Tom Brady is by far the most important piece of the New England offense, and Michel’s ability to keep the quarterback upright could help him get more playing time.
While Rex Burkhead and James White are still there to vulture touches, Michel is the most likely candidate to lead the backfield for a team that has been a top three scoring offense in each of the last seven seasons. Furthermore, according to Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros, rookie running backs selected in the first round of the NFL Draft in the last six seasons have finished as an RB1 80 percent of the time. While the sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions, it goes to show that an NFL franchise investing first-round draft capital in a running back typically means they plan on giving significant volume to said back in year one. While Michel may not see as much rushing volume as other running backs selected in the third or fourth round of drafts, his pass-catching ability and the explosiveness of the New England offense give him high upside for an RB2.
4.03. Adam Thielen – WR – Minnesota Vikings
While many would call Thielen’s 2017 a breakout season, he actually broke out during the second half of the 2016 season, a campaign in which he totaled 69 receptions and nearly 1,000 yards. Thielen didn’t stop there, as he continued his ascension to stardom by finishing as a WR1 in fantasy football and leading the Vikings in targets and yards in 2017.
However, fellow Vikings WR and projected third-round fantasy football pick Stefon Diggs outperformed Thielen in almost every efficiency metric available, including production premium (No. 12 vs. No. 35 among all WRs), target premium (No. 10 vs. No. 69), contested catch rate (No. 1 vs. No. 14), dominator rating (No. 14 vs. No. 27), and fantasy points per target (No. 7 vs. No. 41). Put simply, Diggs is a more efficient receiver than Thielen, and, if Diggs can put together a full season without injury, it would be surprising to see Thielen outperform Diggs in fantasy football.
Thielen’s target numbers are also likely to fall due to the return of running back Dalvin Cook from injury and a full offseason for Diggs to get back to full health. It would be shocking for Thielen to see 142 targets as he did last season in 2018. However, Thielen is a fairly safe pick because the Vikings have little talent on the wide receiver depth chart after Diggs and Thielen, meaning Thielen will be on the field in all 2WR sets. While it’s unrealistic to expect Thielen to replicate last year’s production, he can still provide stable WR2 production in 2018.
4.04. Tyreek Hill – WR – Kansas City Chiefs
While most ADP and ranking services have Tyreek Hill as a late second- or early third-round pick, our mock draft lands him an entire round later in the fourth round. Hill’s 2017 production was impressive, but his efficiency was likely unsustainable, and he won’t see enough volume to warrant being picked in the first three rounds of fantasy football drafts.
After introducing himself to the world during the second half of the 2016 NFL season through highlight reel punt returns and go routes, Hill picked up right where he left off in 2017 en route to finishing as a top ten wide receiver in fantasy football. In fact, Hill was the only receiver since 2000 to finish as a WR1 in fantasy despite seeing fewer than 20 percent of his team’s targets and fewer than 10 percent of targets in the red zone.
While Hill’s insane efficiency propelled him to a WR1 finish in 2017, it’s unlikely that he sustains that efficiency over an entire season for a second time considering no other player this century has performed so well in fantasy football with such little volume. The addition of Sammy Watkins will provide Hill with a level of target competition that he never had when Albert Wilson and Chris Conley were the only other receivers in town.
Furthermore, Patrick Mahomes is now the starting quarterback in Kansas City, and, while Mahomes’ college production and arm strength bode well for the future, he likely won’t light the world on fire as he learns the ropes of being an NFL quarterback in his first season as a starter. The Texas Tech product’s reckless style of play meshes better with Hill than Alex Smith’s game management philosophy, but it’s unrealistic to expect a first-year starter to put together a better season than Smith had in his MVP-caliber 2017 campaign. Due to increased target competition and a downgrade at quarterback, Hill is a fade at his current average draft position and should not be selected until the fourth round of drafts.
4.05. Josh Gordon – WR – Cleveland Browns
After a year of waiting, Roger Goodell and the NFL granted the fantasy football community’s wish by reinstating Josh Gordon after he was suspended indefinitely following a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. Gordon looked good as new in his return to the NFL, tallying 18 catches for 335 yards and a touchdown in five games (57.6 catches for 1,072 yards and 3.2 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games). Gordon was clearly a big part of Hue Jackson’s gameplan, as he averaged 8.2 targets per game and 134.8 air yards per game in 2017, which was third among WRs with at least five games played last season behind only Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Air yards are an almost perfect measure of quarterback and coaching intent. The coach and quarterback want the receiver to secure those yards, and, as such, they are a window into their thinking and mindset. We can use air yards to help us unearth which receivers the quarterback and coaches would like to see get the ball—knowing that has predictive value.
Given that Gordon ranked near the top of the league in air yards per game, it’s safe to assume that the Cleveland coaching staff wants to get Gordon involved, and for good reason, as Gordon had more than 1,600 yards the last time he played more than five games in a season – with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. Now, with Tyrod Taylor and/or Baker Mayfield at quarterback and a full offseason to readjust to the rigors of NFL gameplay, Gordon’s upside is off the charts.
However, he has a lot of competition for targets between Jarvis Landry, Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, and David Njoku. Landry specifically has made a living as the NFL’s best volume slot receiver and he has seen an average of 142.5 targets during his four years in Miami. Duke Johnson is one of the league’s most talented receivers out of the backfield and David Njoku was a first-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Furthermore, Johnson and Landry were both recently given hefty extensions by Cleveland’s front office.
Clearly, the Browns value all of the aforementioned players given the capital they have invested in each of them, and they’ll want to get all of them involved. While Gordon is likely the most talented of the group, he won’t come close to the 11.4 targets per game number he recorded in his breakout 2013 campaign. The sky’s the limit for Gordon, but it won’t be easy for him to get back to the WR1 heights he reached five years ago.
4.06. Allen Robinson – WR – Chicago Bears
This offseason, the Chicago Bears signed wideout Allen Robinson to a three-year, $42 million contract. Robinson missed all of last season after tearing his ACL in week one, but will be good to go for the 2018 campaign. While many are skeptical of the Penn State product after two consecutive disappointing seasons, he still projects to be the No. 1 WR in an improved Chicago passing attack.
While it’s normally difficult for wide receivers to adapt to new teams due to the quarterback already having chemistry with incumbent receivers, the Bears have completely overhauled their receiving corps this offseason, meaning Mitchell Trubisky doesn’t have preexisting chemistry with any of Chicago’s wideouts. Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel pose no threat to Robinson as the top dog in Chicago’s passing offense, so he is in line for a large workload on a team that will likely throw the ball much more than last year after the hiring of the aforementioned Nagy. While Robinson has burned fantasy owners in years past, his role as the No. 1 wide receiver in Chicago gives him a steady floor in the fourth round of drafts.
4.07. Randall Cobb – WR – Green Bay Packers
For whatever reason, Randall Cobb’s average draft position on FantasyPros is outside the top 80, while I have him ranked as a top 48 player. In the three seasons in which both Cobb and Aaron Rodgers have been healthy, Cobb has finished as the WR6, WR19, and WR31. Now, Jordy Nelson is off to Oakland, leaving Cobb as the No. 2 wide receiver in Green Bay.
In the six games Rodgers started and finished last season, Cobb averaged eight targets, 5.5 receptions, 55 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game. Extrapolated over an entire season, those numbers would have placed Cobb at WR21 in 2017. In the eight seasons in which Rodgers has played at least 15 games, his WR2 has finished as a top 30 receiver seven times and a top 24 receiver six times with an average finish of WR21.3. Nelson’s release means Cobb could be in line for even more targets. While the signing of Jimmy Graham puts a damper on Cobb’s red zone upside, his rapport with Rodgers should prove lucrative this season. Cobb’s current ADP means you can wait another round or two to grab him while still feeling confident you’re getting a value.
4.08. Chris Hogan – WR – New England Patriots
Similar to Randall Cobb, Chris Hogan is a starting wide receiver on a prolific offense; in fact, the Patriots have finished in the top three in scoring for seven consecutive seasons. With Julian Edelman suspended for the first four games of the season, Hogan is Tom Brady’s No. 1 target for a quarter of the season. Hogan was a top ten receiver before his injury last season despite competing with Brandin Cooks for deep targets. While Edelman will almost certainly command a significant target share once he returns from his suspension, the two can operate concurrently, as Hogan’s 2017 average depth of target was over 13 while Edelman’s career aDOT is 7.80. Hogan had to compete with Cooks for deep targets last year. With Cooks gone, Hogan now is the lone deep threat for one of the best aerial attacks in the league. Hogan’s current average draft position is in the sixth round, but he should be going in the late fourth.
4.09. Aaron Rodgers – QB – Green Bay Packers
At this point, it’s clear that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in fantasy football when he’s healthy. Rodgers broke his collarbone early in the 2017 season and missed the majority of the fantasy season, but he is fully healthy now and ready to go for the 2018 season. While the loss of Jordy Nelson may concern some, Davante Adams was the far more efficient wide receiver in 2017 and opposing teams often put their No. 1 cornerback on Adams instead of Nelson. Rodgers and Nelson have had a special connection in the red zone for the past few years, but Adams is simply better than Nelson at this point in their respective careers.
The Packers also brought in former Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham to nullify the loss of Nelson. Graham caught ten touchdowns in 2017 and led all tight ends in contested catch rate (77.3%). Put simply, Rodgers is the best quarterback in fantasy football and is a solid investment in the fourth round of drafts despite the relative lack of value at quarterback compared to other positions.
4.10. Ronald Jones – RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted Ronald Jones in the early second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Jones was a prolific rusher at USC, but his college target share was in the 16th percentile, which is concerning given that he is a smaller back at only 205 pounds. Additionally, Jones injured himself at the combine so there is minimal athletic testing data available for him. Despite the concerns, Jones finds himself in an optimal situation with little competition for touches in Tampa Bay. Peyton Barber, Charles Sims, and Jacquizz Rodgers are the only other running backs of consequence on the roster, and none of them pose a threat to Jones considering how much draft capital the Buccaneers invested in the young speedster.
At the moment, it’s not clear if Jones’ lack of pass-catching numbers stemmed from USC’s scheme or his lack of talent as a receiver, so Jones is a risky pick in the fourth round. It’s rare that running backs under 210 pounds succeed between the tackles in the NFL, but the lack of competition in the Tampa Bay backfield gives Jones a lot of upside in the late fourth round of drafts.
4.11. Royce Freeman – RB – Denver Broncos
In the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected Oregon running back Royce Freeman. Freeman was a workhorse at Oregon from the day he stepped on campus, totaling 947 carries and 79 catches over four seasons. In Denver, Freeman’s only competition for touches comes from Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Henderson, meaning he should assume a workhorse role in his first year in the NFL just as he did in college.
Freeman is a jack of all trades, master of none type running back whose contributions in the rushing and passing game are both above average but not stellar. Freeman’s College Dominator, college yards per carry, and college target share all rank above the 57th percentile, but none of them are above the 72nd. Despite not having a true niche, Freeman’s projected volume as the only running back of consequence in Denver makes him a viable fantasy option in the fourth round of drafts.
4.12. Michael Crabtree – WR – Baltimore Ravens
Although Michael Crabtree disappointed fantasy owners who paid a premium for him last season, he has finished as a top-30 wide receiver in three consecutive seasons and is now the No. 1 WR in Baltimore. A Baltimore wide receiver has never finished higher than WR16 during the Joe Flacco era, but the volume Crabtree will receive in 2018 gives him a steady floor relative to the options around him. The Ravens have finished in the top twelve in pass attempts in each of the last three years – including the most in the league in 2016 – and Crabtree has little-to-no competition for targets, as the only other veteran wideouts on the team are John Brown and Willie Snead. While the Baltimore offense likely won’t generate enough scoring attempts for Crabtree to score eight or more touchdowns like he did in Oakland, projected volume makes him a fine pick at the end of the fourth round.
View the first round, second round, and third round.
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