We continue our 2019 NFL Draft preview by breaking down the best wide receivers expected to be available. Follow Dillon on Twitter at @DillJosephsen.
The 2019 NFL Draft features the deepest wide receiver class that we have seen since the 2014 class that featured Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Jarvis Landry and many other starters in the league. After breaking passing records as a league in 2018, it is exciting to see the strongest part of this draft class be able to impact the way the game is changing.
Analyzing this class the metrics I focused on to rank these guys were market share of team’s receiving, age-adjusted production, and athleticism.
[Also See: NFL Mock Draft 2019, 1.0]
Top 10 wide receivers in the 2019 NFL Draft
1. N’Keal Harry – Arizona State
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 228
N’Keal Harry is my top-rated wide receiver of this class and it really isn’t that close for me. Harry broke out at Arizona State as a true freshman collecting a 26% market share of his team’s receiving yards and touchdowns. Sophomore year he became a dominant force in the PAC-12 posting a 36% market share followed by a 40% market share in his final season.
Harry plays comfortably lined up in the slot or wide. I see a guy who flashes as a route runner but uses his physicality and athleticism to create separation because it works for him at this level. He has incredible hands reeling in catches in traffic and comes down with 50/50 balls way more often than someone should. Harry has proved himself as a threat in space with the ball in his hands, he is very elusive and incredible at breaking tackles after the catch.
A guy of Harry’s stature, athletic testing is incredibly important to determine his range of outcomes as a player. He ran a 4.53 40-yard dash which gives him an 89th-percentile size adjusted speed score, which bodes really well for him paired with his elite production.
[Also See: Top 10 running backs in the 2019 NFL Draft]
2. D.K. Metcalf – Ole Miss
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 228
D.K. Metcalf is buzzing more than anyone of this NFL draft class for his incredible combine performance and the viral photos of him without a shirt after a workout with teammate A.J. Brown (mentioned below). Contextualizing Metcalf’s market share is really important because much like running back Josh Jacobs of Alabama, Metcalf had competition for targets with A.J. Brown and Damarkus Lodge who all three could be selected in the first few rounds. In the games that Metcalf had played he had an above 30% market share with considering his competition is really impressive.
Metcalf is a special talent, he could wind up being by far the most talented guy from this draft regardless of position. When you watch his tape, he does not look like he should be playing with guys in college. Everything about his game shows that he can be elite, his only red flags to me are medical and the wrong team drafting him. Metcalf ran a 4.33 40-yard dash which makes him a 99th-percentile size-adjusted athlete, a true outlier.
Metcalf played limited games in his career at Ole Miss due to injuries. In 2016 he suffered a season ending foot injury after two games. In 2018 he suffered a neck injury halfway through the season forcing him to miss the remainder.
[Also See: NFL free agency winners and losers]
3. A.J. Brown – Ole Miss
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 226
Much like his teammate mentioned above, you need to contextualize A.J. Brown’s market share production. Your teammates being other future NFL players is going to make it tough to inflate those numbers. His market share numbers were similar to Metcalf’s at just over 32% but with many more games played.
Brown played primarily in the slot for Ole Miss and did most of his damage in the short and intermediate areas of the field as a big bodied receiver who isn’t afraid to make a catch in traffic. Brown has great ball skills and is a natural athlete to extend plays after the catch. He will have to prove that he can play as an outside receiver only because he never was asked to do it in college. He has the size to suggest he can but I wouldn’t consider him a vertical threat.
Brown ran a 4.49 40-yard dash which would make put him in the same bracket of athleticism as N’Keal Harry (above), 89th-percentile size adjusted athlete.
4. Parris Campbell – Ohio State
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 205
Parris Campbell is a phenomenal size-speed athlete out of Ohio State who was never truly dominant as a receiver. Ohio State has many talented offensive weapons that they rotated frequently.
He was used primarily out of the slot and in motion. His route tree consisted of screens, underneath crosses and going vertical. Campbell’s usage at Ohio State’s is similar to how Kansas City uses Tyreek Hill, get him moving before the snap and design ways for him to play in space. Campbell had a 23% market share for Ohio State which is below average number but makes sense considering the context of Ohio State’s rotations. The team that drafts him is going to use him in that role after the Chiefs success in 2018.
Parris Campbell ran a 4.31 40-yard dash making him a 96th-percentile size adjusted athlete.
5. Andy Isabella – UMASS
Height: 5’9″
Weight: 188
Small school, smaller guy playing at UMASS, Andy Isabella was just absurdly dominant. In his final season he accounted for a 48% market share of his team’s receiving production. If level of talent that he played against is a concern for you, he racked up 15 receptions for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns against SEC’s Georgia.
Isabella is a smaller player but attacked teams all over the field. He is an incredible short to intermediate route runner. One of his worst traits is not being strong with his hands, relying too often to use his body to bring the ball in. Isabella is never going to be a physical receiver and will struggle with contested catches in the NFL. He plays with a high motor and a lot of energy. I really believe Isabella is going to be an incredible receiver at the NFL level with a team that uses him in the slot with spread-vertical concepts.
Isabella has elite speed, running a 4.31 40-yard dash after errors with the combine’s clock initially. Adjusting for size, this is a 77th-percentile score but alone is a 100th-percentile 40 time.
6. Deebo Samuel – South Carolina
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 214
Deebo Samuel is a versatile receiver who lined up wide and in the slot. He was used in the return game. He has even excelled when given carries throughout his career. Samuel has an average receiving market share at 27% but I am drawn towards players with a wider skill set.
In his sophomore season he had 6 rushing touchdowns off of 15 carries. In that season he averaged almost 27 yards on kick returns with 1 touchdown. Before his junior season came to an end (broken fibula) he returned only 2 kicks, each for a touchdown. This tells you that Samuel can be special. He profiles as a prototypical possession receiver with upside to create after the catch.
Samuel ran a 4.48 which would make him a 78th-percentile size adjusted athlete.
7. Kelvin Harmon – NC State
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 221
Kelvin Harmon was one of my biggest losers from the NFL Combine with poor testing. Harmon’s game was predicated on his ability to win with size and strength, he never beat anyone with speed. Harmon is a big receiver with great hands who was excellent at coming down with contested catches. He carried a 31% market share of NC State’s receiving production which is a pretty average number for an alpha receiver. His speed is a red flag on tape and it became confirmation at the NFL Combine.
Harmon ran a 4.60 40-yard dash which gives him 68th-percentile size adjusted speed but his testing in agility and broad jump were very poor making him a bottom tier athlete.
8. Emanuel Hall – Missouri
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 201
Another winner from the NFL Combine was Emanuel Hall. Emanuel Hall blew it up running a 4.39 40-yard dash which gives him 89th-percentile size adjusted speed. His broad jump was the second best ever in NFL Combine history at 11’ 9”. Emanuel Hall is explosive. His market share while at Missouri was 35%, an above average number. His yards per reception over his final two seasons: 24.8 and 22.4. Emanuel Hall is an elite deep threat.
Hall’s numbers and testing really paint his picture well. A major concern of his game is his inconsistency at the catch point, he has a major issue with dropped passes. Dropped passes have proven to be an inconsistent metric to consider year to year, but his tape really enhances this aspect of his game. Hall battled non-serious injuries over his career with groin and hamstring injuries.
9. Hakeem Butler – Iowa State
Height: 6’5″
Weight: 227
Hakeem Butler is someone who continues to drop in my rankings. Butler was incredibly productive in his senior season but it is confusing to me why it would have taken someone this good so long to develop as such. Butler’s final season market share was above 43% which is a remarkable number to have. A guy of his size you don’t expect to be an impressive short to intermediate route runner. He also averaged 22 yards per reception which is a testament to his huge frame and speed. Dominating as an older prospect is discouraging. There wasn’t a significant amount of competition for targets at Iowa State but it took him until his senior season. Butler profiles as an X-receiver based on his size and speed, I’m just concerned with his production history to pull the early trigger.
Hakeem Butler ran a 4.48 and at his huge size this would translate to 97th-percentile size adjusted speed.
10. KeeSean Johnson – Fresno State
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 201
Someone I believe not being talked about enough is KeeSean Johnson out of Fresno State. Johnson has a 35% market share and broke out as a sophomore. Johnson is the best route runner of this class, which makes up for his below average athleticism. He was used in the slot or lined up out wide and can run the full route tree. He has incredibly strong hands where he can comes down with contested balls or can make a highlight reception from an awful through. He profiles as a true possession receiver that will have an immediate impact.
KeeSean Johnson ran a 4.6 which would make him a 34th-percentile size adjusted athlete.
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