The Green Bay Packers know how they want to win. In the past three years since Matt LaFleur took the helm, they have finished 7th in average drive time (2019), 1st (2020), and again 1st (2021) in the league. This has correlated to finishing 1st in average drive points in 2020 and 5th in that category in 2021. They want to take their time going down the field and not turn the ball over.
That’s it. How simple! This is the key to their success as they have finished first in the league the past three years in turnovers allowed. No wonder they’ve gone 39-10 in that stretch in the regular season. No wonder only 6 touchdowns were scored from outside the red zone last year, whereas 24 were scored inside the five. This is how they collect wins, and this is not going to change in 2022, even with the departure of (arguably) the best receiver in the game. They pride themselves on this stat, and this pride is reflected in the defense, where DC Joe Barry seeks to limit the opponent’s average drive time by doing “everything humanly possible to take the ball away.”
There are fantasy implications here. Aaron Rodgers will seek to limit his interceptions (hovering around a respectable 0.83% the past three years) and put the ball in the hands of those he trusts. With Devante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling gone, this begs the question of who will benefit, and given Green Bay’s prolific offense there are fantasy points to be had.
Consider the seven games Adams missed the past three years. In those games, the Packers went 7-0 and Rodgers spread the ball around the field. There was a major change to note though: a significant chunk went to the running backs. See below:
2021, Week 8: 22 passing attempts, 11 targets to RBs.
2020, Week 3: 32 passing attempts, 5 targets to RBs.*
2020, Week 4: 33 passing attempts, 13 targets to RBs.
2019, Week 5, 34 passing attempts, 11 targets to RBs.
2019, Week 6, 39 passing attempts, 12 targets to RBs.
2019, Week 7, 31 passing attempts, 9 targets to RBs.
2019, Week 8, 33 passing attempts, 11 targets to RBs.
* Let me just quickly address the 16% target share to the RBs in 2020, Week 3. This was against the stingy Saints defense that, as of that week in late-September, went 45 straight weeks without allowing a single 100-yd rusher. This was (and is) an outstanding defense, and with Adams gone, they were able to zero in on number 33. Aaron Jones was still able to do his part and finish RB13 overall (half-PPR). Take a bow, Mr. Jones.
For reference, Aaron Jones averaged 4.36 targets/game 2019-2021, but it was with Adams out that the RB room saw their targets skyrocket to 10.40 targets/game! By far the best pass-catcher out of the backfield—and the most explosive one—he made hay with Adams on the sideline. Averaging 17.10 points/game (DKPt) with an active Adams, his points/game shot up to 26.67 those seven games without the star receiver. This is a very good number. Stellar, in fact.
Last season’s league-setter-on-fire Jonathan Taylor averaged 24.01 points/game. Go ahead and read that again. There is statistical evidence Aaron Jones could outperform Jonathan Taylor’s 2021 season. This isn’t fantasy value—this is a potential fantasy winner. These are sacred grounds we speak of.
Now, I am not the first person to argue that Jones will see an uptick in fantasy points this season, nor will I be the last. But let me be the one to give you permission to draft him as high as you want this year. The ceiling is there, and it is those ceilings that win fantasy leagues. The Packers know what they need to do to win, and Jones is there to execute their game plan.
