We fantasy players are quick to forgive. Take Christian McCaffrey. He hasn’t played a full season since 2019. In fact, he hasn’t played a half-season since 2019, and right now he’s a top-3 pick in drafts according to FantasyPros ADP. We all know the reason why: when he’s healthy he’s a force to be reckoned with. He’s a league winner. Given his injury history, one can argue it’s worth the risk to draft him that high. Even during his injury-riddled season in 2020 he still finished RB1 in ppg (PPR) and RB5 in 2021 (PPR as well). He has proven that, while on the field, he is still effective.
I have to come clean, though. I lied. We fantasy players are not always the quickest to forgive, because there’s another dominant fantasy force out there who has not put out a league-winning season since 2019 and he is, in terms of ADP, being written off. That fantasy force is Ezekiel Elliott. Let me just list off his overall fantasy finishes since he came into the league (PPR scoring):
2016: RB2
2017: RB12 (this was the year he fought Goodell on the suspension and played only 10 games. He still finished as a RB1 that year, coming in 3rd overall ppg)
2018: RB5
2019: RB3
And this is where it starts to slip and why his draft capital has plummeted:
2020: RB12
2021: RB6
His 2021 performance did not feel like a strong RB1 finish. He struggled on the field and finished 6th overall mainly because the rest of the running backs in the league got hurt. His ppg average was RB15 (PPR), alongside the likes of Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery. This was not the Zeke of the past, and now he is being relegated to his 2021 ppg finish because, in the minds of drafters, that’s where they’re comfortable taking him.
Let me make the case that the old Ezekiel Elliott could come alive in 2022 and that where he’s going now, in the third round, could be a huge steal:
In 2020, Weeks 1-5, the Cowboys defense was a sieve. They were 27th in the league in points against, and it was during those first five weeks that Dak Prescott put up an insane 375 yards per game on 45 attempts every Sunday. They were constantly behind and had to generate comeback attempts against Seattle, Cleveland, Atlanta, and the Falcons. Any attempt to control the game with their rushing attack was out the window, and still, during this time Ezekiel Elliott was the RB5 overall during that time span. It was that game against the Giants that Dak suffered that horrific ankle injury, and after that injury no longer did opposing defenses respect the pass. They zeroed in on the main Cowboys’ offensive weapon, and Elliott could not overcome the stacked boxes.
The first five weeks in 2021 were telling for Zeke too. It was during this time he was the RB3 overall, and ahead of the matchup against the Giants, he was bothered by his knee. This issue never went away last season. He suffered a right knee contusion in Week 9 against Denver and had a grade-3 PCL tear against Kansas City. His output was basically shot at that point, and from Week 12 on, he finished as the RB32 during that time frame. Just like in 2020, his performance was derailed by an injury.
Unlike CMC though, Zeke never missed a game, and this is one of the reasons why he is buried in ADP. We fantasy players can forgive one bad season for an elite player, but it’s difficult for two. Let’s make an exception for Zeke. The offense is too good, and he has proven that while he and Dak are healthy, he is a difference-maker at the position.
