Consider these three phases to Jalen Hurts’s 2021 season:
- Pass-heavy attack (Weeks 1-7)
- Pivot to a run-centric offense (Weeks 8-12)
- Injury recovery (Weeks 13-18)
By the pass-heavy first half of the season, I am referencing the fact that in all but one game, the Eagles attempted more passes and rushing attempts. This was a Week 2 meeting against the 49ers in South Philly, one of those ugly 11-17 games that, at the end of the first quarter, one immediately knew it would not augur fantasy value for anyone involved.
These first few weeks were intermittent with exhausted Philly fans holding up signs during the game demanding Sirianni to “Run the F*cking Ball,” and in Week 6 against the Brady-led Bucs, the fans actually rose from their seats and applauded when back-to-back running back draw plays were executed. It wasn’t so much the fact they couldn’t run the ball (they averaged 4.98 yards per carry) but it was suspected that the coaching staff preferred that Hurts lead the offense with his arm.
There are multiple theories on why this happened. The new coach may have wanted to see what they had in a starting quarterback given the plethora of picks he had in the upcoming draft. Another theory is that this is the offense they wanted to run (pun not intended) and tried to shove a round block into a square hole. More than likely it is a combination of the two.
This all changed after a 22-33 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, the final score of which betrays just how out-of-hand this game was, and if you have to use the phrase out-of-hand when you’re losing to the Raiders, yeah, you reconsider everything.
By Week 8 the Eagles were 2-5 and staring down five divisional games on their horizon. So, they did what any good coach would do at this point: pivot your entire offense as you’re going against the hapless Detroit Lions, which is exactly what they did in Week 8, marching right into Ford Field and ramming 236 rushing yards on 46 attempts down their kitty throats.
They followed this up with a surprisingly close match against the Bolts in which they attempted another 39 rushing attempts, and again with the same number in a steady win over the Broncos who, give them credit, had a much better run defense than the Lions and the Chargers. From there they took their newfound identity against the visiting New Orleans who at the end of the season posted the best rush defense in terms of yards per attempt, and the Eagles ran roughshod for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. After the Saints walked off the field Philadelphia was 3-1 in their last four weeks, and back in playoff contention.
I say all this not to merely walk down memory lane. There was an indelible switch after that Raiders game that led the Eagles to start winning, and it is after this switch Jalen Hurts’s fantasy output dropped significantly. See here:
Weeks 1-7: 26.0 points per game (DKPt)
Weeks 8-12: 17.6 points per game (DKPt)
This is a drop of 8.4 points/game (DKPt), a 32 percent free fall.
The final phase of the season featured Hurts playing through a Grade 1 high ankle sprain, and credit him for making it back onto the football field. Credit him again with finishing the season 4-1 in the final five games and leading the team into the playoffs. An injured running quarterback on a run-focused offense posted the low fantasy totals you’d expect.
Looking back at 2021 it’d be easy to pinpoint the downturn in Hurts’s fantasy production due to the injury. However, this is betraying the fact that it was not the injury, but rather the change of offensive identity that torpedoed Hurts’s output in your line-up. And, most importantly, it was after they made this switch they went 7-3 and made the playoffs.
The Eagles found that Hurts the passer was not winning them games. Running the f*cking ball was, and one can only take a guess what offensive vision they’d like to take into the upcoming football season.
