No matter what league you play in, the running back position often dictates the success of your fantasy team. Finding the breakout running backs for the season can carry you to fantasy glory.
If you drafted Jonathan Taylor last season, who was expected to be good, not great, then you no doubt were happy you did. There were all kinds of questions about how successful Taylor could be, especially with the uncertain health of his offensive line.
Taylor was being drafted in the back end of the first round, or somewhere in the second round in many cases. Who knew that he would be the number one running back in fantasy by a wide margin? He exploded last season and is now the number one projected draft pick on most if not all fantasy platforms.
There are certain guys that we know are going to be great for fantasy if they stay healthy. That’s why we draft them in the first round. Then there are the Taylor’s of last season. These are the guys who have some questions surrounding them, or the team, that makes us hesitant to draft them.
Let’s get rid of that hesitation, and make sure you draft these breakout running backs in the 2022-23 season. None of the guys mentioned below are currently going in the first round according to FantasyPros ADP. If they hit their upside this season, they will carry your fantasy team to playoff, and possibly championship, heights.
Javonte Williams (RB, Broncos)
Let’s be honest, there is no surprise here. Before the signing of Melvin Gordon this offseason, Javonte Williams was being touted as a first-round pick.
The talent is undeniable. According to PFF, Williams had a broken tackle rate of 0.48 broken tackles per attempt last season. That broke a PFF record. In addition, Williams finished with a total of 1,219 yards from scrimmage. Those 1,219 yards made him 20th overall out of all skill position players in the NFL. Those numbers would also be 12th amongst all running backs last season.
Taking all of this into consideration, we have not even mentioned the elephant in the room which is Gordon. Williams put up these numbers while seemingly playing a secondary role to Gordon in the offense. Gordon only produced 1,131 yards from scrimmage last season. With Gordon being a year older, and Williams being a year more experienced, the numbers will once again speak for themselves.
Regardless of the signing of Gordon in the off-season, Williams is prime to be a Top 12 overall running back this coming season. Gordon will limit Williams’ overall upside, but feel confident drafting Williams as a second round pick with massive upside if Gordon gets injured.
Breece Hall (RB, Jets)
Kathrine Switzer once said, “Talent is everywhere, it only needs the opportunity.” Breece Hall has both.
He was the first running back drafted in this year’s NFL draft for good reason. Just look at Hall’s measurements in the NFL Combine. According to Player Profiler, Hall finished 97th percentile in his 40 yard dash, 98th percentile in his speed score, and 94th percentile in his burst score. Not to mention he’s listed at 5-foot-11 and 217 pounds.
Compare those numbers to last year’s fantasy RB1. Taylor finished 97th percentile in 40 yard dash, 99th percentile in speed score, and 73rd percentile in burst score. So, based on the numbers, Hall is potentially comparable to Taylor with more burst. That combination of size and speed will have him running all over NFL defenses, and racking up points for your fantasy team this coming season.
Expect a breakout for Hall in his rookie year. It will be tough for him to break into the RB1 range but expect him to be a quality RB2 with upside this season.
AJ Dillon (RB, Packers)
The “Quad Father” is back and most assuredly will be better than ever. AJ Dillon has already shown his rushing prowess over his first two seasons in the league. This is a behemoth of a man weighing in at 247 pounds. His size and strength make him dangerous in the open field, and especially at the goal line.
Look to see an increase in Dillon’s work this season with the Packers losing star wide receiver Devante Adams. Aaron Rodgers will need players to target in the offense. Therefore, Aaron Jones should see an increase in work as well. Both players will be fantasy-viable this season, but Dillon should take the bulk of the ground game with a few targets sprinkled in.
Last season Dillon finished with a total of 803 rushing yards, and 313 receiving yards. His opportunities will most certainly increase this season. A 1,000-yard rushing season is not out of the question for Dillon. With an increase in his receiving work, a nearly 500 yard receiving season is not out of the question either. Look to see Dillon close to, if not over a total of 1,500 yards from scrimmage this season.
Also, something that should not be overlooked is Jones’ ability to play a full season. He tends to miss a few games each season, and has an 87% chance of injury this coming season according to Draft Sharks. If Jones misses any time, Dillon will immediately vault to an RB1 for that stretch of time.
Travis Etienne (RB, Jaguars)
Travis Etienne was drafted with a first-round NFL pedigree. Therefore he’s expected to produce as a first-rounder by NFL standards. We did not get to see his skill set last season due to injury, but expect to see it all over the field this year.
Etienne’s college production proves to be very promising for fantasy purposes. He has a skill set that can win all over the field. In his four years at Clemson he produced 6,107 yards from scrimmage and 78 total touchdowns. That averages out to over 1,500 yards per season, and nearly 20 touchdowns per season. Those numbers are ridiculous.
He has great hands as well, and in his senior season finished with 588 receiving yards. This Jacksonville team will need to pass in order to stay afloat in games. Their current number one receiver is Christian Kirk who has yet to have a 1,000-yard receiving season. Etienne will definitely get volume in the passing game.
Oh, and did I mention he’s catching passes from his college quarterback? Trevor Lawrence will trust Etienne in every situation on the field just as he did in college. Look to see Etienne have a very productive year even if James Robinson returns to health at some point. For now, this is Etienne’s backfield and he will take full advantage of it.
Tyler Allgeier (RB, Falcons)
Tyler Allgeier was drafted in the 5th round by Atlanta this season. Usually, there is not much expectation for a 5th round rookie. However, Allgeier has an amazing opportunity to win the starting job in the backfield.
His workout metrics at the combine are not impressive, but his statistics in his final season at BYU are. In 2021 Allgeier finished with a total of 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 23 total touchdowns. He will face much stiffer competition in the pros, but he already may be the best running back on his team.
His backfield mates are the 30-year-old Damien Williams who barely played the last two seasons and the 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson who will for sure be needed in the passing game. That gives Allgeier an immediate opportunity to be the top running back for this team. Allgeier will be serviceable if he gets the starting job. He will not have RB1 upside, but he should be drafted and he will return on value.
Draft him with the expectation of a flex play, or bye week fill-in. A depth piece like Allgeier can carry you through a long season of surprises.
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