The proposition goes as such: it’s good to be a new coach on an exceptionally poor team. To wit, the 2015 Tennessee Titans, who rostered some of the worst offensive talent in the late-Obama period NFL: Dorial Green-Beckham, a rookie Marcus Mariota, and Antonio Andrews.
The team was putrid, finishing in the bottom five in points scored, total yards, and turnovers. Not only were they unable to move the ball, but they were also unable to hold onto it — 16.2% of drives ended in a turnover. Generally, teams get 10-12 possessions in a game. When defenses played the Titans, they just knew they were going to get at least two interceptions or fumbles.
The team was so bad they fired HC Ken Wisenhunt in early November, as Halloween decorations still littered lawns. Leaves were still on the trees. They then gave the keys to Mike Mularkey, a move that was immediately dispatched by local media as “awful” and “an uninspiring settle,” which one couldn’t really argue with at the time.
But they didn’t know what just awaited Mularkey with that bottom-feeder team. See, when an offense-minded candidate becomes head coach—no matter who they are replacing—they are more than likely to score fewer points the next season.
Since 2013, there have been 33 new head coaches that come from an offensive background. Half of them take over an offense in the top two-thirds. That is, an offense ranked in the top 23 — half of them from the other third, those finishing No. 24 or worse. Those who take over an offense in the top 23 have a 13% success rate of scoring more points the next season. That, my friends, is a very low number.
The inverse is true when one takes over a bottom 5 offense. Those ranked 28th or worse, which is where the Titans had finished in 2015, had a 100% success rate in total points scored the next season — not that hard improving on rock bottom, sure. What’s shocking, though, is that those teams averaged a jump of 19 spots in total points scored the following season. That’s akin to going from no. 32 to no. 13. That’s going from last year’s Jacksonville Jaguars to last year’s Minnesota Vikings. And that’s on average.
Sean McVay went worst-to-first in 2017. Frank Reich went from 30th to 5th the year after. Matt Nagy—yes, the Matt Nagy—went from 29th to 9th in 2018. Mike Mularkey took that team of Dorial Green-Beckhams and Antonio Andrews and ended the next season at no.14 in points scored. Thus, his corollary: when an offensive coach takes over a bottom 5 team, expect the offense to make major strides the following year.
The good news is this year there are two coaches that fit this corollary, and neither goes by the name Adam Gase.
Brian Daboll is heading up the New York Giants, who ranked 31st in points scored last year. The worst offensive unit in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars, hired Doug Pederson, who by all accounts is still rocking the visor.
I should now bring up a principle that goes hand-in-hand with the Mike Mularkey corollary, and that is when you are piecing back together a broken offense, focus on your talent. Andy Reid did this with Jamaal Charles by just feeding him more targets in the passing game. Pat Shurmur had Eli Manning only throw to Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham. Matt Nagy looked to Vic Fangio for help, and with the snap of his fingers, Khalil Mack forced yet another turnover. Ride what you have. Hard. There aren’t a lot of good players on the team, so get them out of the way.
Also: spend a ton of money in the off-season. Make people seriously question your decisions. People should use such words to describe it as a “frenzy” and “a worrying trend for [the] franchise” and “you should never pay that much money for Christian Kirk.” Mike Mularkey took one look at his squad and determined that the owner is going to have to pay out the mouth for a running back in the open market to couple with the RB he picked in the 2nd round. Sometimes these guys have to be naked in their plans for the upcoming season. They have the worst team. They have no choice but to show their cards.
The Titans proceeded to run the hell out of the ball. They ran it 105 more times the previous year, finishing No.4 in the league in attempts and no.3 in rushing yards. DeMarco Murray paved the way with 1289 yards and 9 TDs and added another 53 receptions in the air. Let me add that he finished as the no.5 RB that year while going at the 4/5 turn in fantasy drafts. The cards are on the table for anyone to read.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Let’s apply the Mike Mularkey corollary with this principle to the worst team in the league last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let me refresh your memory here. Not only did they rank last in points scored, but they were also in the bottom 5 in the following categories: yards gained, turnovers, first downs, percentage of drives ending in a score, and defense.
Urban Meyer sallied about midwestern bars dancing with co-eds to kicking Josh Lambo when no one was looking. He was widely regarded as the worst coach in the league and a terrible human being. These are the ashes in which Doug Pederson is to build the phoenix.
Pederson followed in the footsteps of Coach Mularkey and spent a ton of money on one position and we can’t help but guess how he plans to improve the offense this year. The Jaguars are going to pass, pass, pass. I would too in a division with the secondaries of the Colts and Titans being the weak points of their defenses.
The main beneficiary, of course, will be Trevor Lawrence. You can just see his golden mane blowing in the wind after he completes his third touchdown in the game against the Texans, who he gets to play twice this year.
New York Giants
The other team that fits this bill is the New York Football Giants. Now, they did not go out and spend like Mularkey or Pederson, but there’s more than one way for a team to improve in this corollary.
Brian Daboll is following the path that Andy Reid, Frank Reich, and Sean McVay did, and that was to:
- Find a defensive coordinator that excelled in creating turnovers.
- Give your most talented player on offense as many touches as possible (see: Jamaal Charles, Andrew Luck, Todd Gurley).
With his top two wide receivers currently dealing with injuries lingering from last year and the departure of their top tight end, Daboll is going to demand that Daniel Jones gives the ball to Saquon. Pass or hand it off. Doesn’t matter. Just give him the rock.
Wink Martindale is going to be asked to dial up his defense to create turnovers and limit the opposing offense’s drives just like he did in Baltimore, and when the Giants get the ball back expect them to run, run, run. It will be a ton of Barkley, with Jones taking some designed runs himself just like Daboll did with Josh Allen.
What about the Broncos?
This is also to say not to expect huge things out of the Broncos, Vikings, Raiders, or Dolphins this year, which is hard because they have some shiny new toys. Perhaps one breaks through, and you have the outlier season that Bruce Arians had when he joined the Buccaneers in 2019.
The Bucs finished the previous year No.12 in points scored, but bear in mind they were No.3 overall in yards accumulated. This meant that the offense was inefficient, and this makes sense given they had the second-worst defense in the league. They were getting blown out and they had to find a way to catch up, but they had the talent to do that.
This is the same team that had skill-position players that would shortly help win a Super Bowl. Arians merely brought the point scored up to the level of total yards gained by the offense. Those four aforementioned teams are not at this level.
The best argument would be the Broncos for bringing in Russell Wilson. A talented quarterback addition can jump-start a failing offense, as we saw with Kyler Murray during his rookie year. There’s just so much newness in Denver. There’s a new quarterback to go with a new head coach who must find a way to fuse a new offensive scheme that must be unique enough to challenge defenses but conceptually simple enough for their players to grasp by Week 1. Even ownership is new.
The best you can hope for those squads is what Nick Sirianni did with the Eagles last year: bring them from No. 26 points scored up to No.12. Short of that, history is not on their side.
