“Many great opportunities are not cheap, but some cheap opportunities are so great.” – Iveta Cherneva.
Before we review last week’s picks and fantasy totals, I want to let you in on a little secret about sports betting. Most betting sites place players into different success tiers at certain milestones. This season I discussed playing the beginner and casual contest on DraftKings, so you play with others near your skill level.
The same applies to the average fantasy player. Most people are not pumping $20,000+ into NFL lineups in a week. Continue to give yourself a realistic chance by playing in small-field $5 games. Why? Because players that play fantasy for a living or as an extensive hobby cannot enter these tournaments. GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) are a great way to take advantage of players at your level. It may not be as sexy as the Millionaire Maker but creating a realistic chance of making a couple of hundred dollars is far greater by going down this road. This is from personal experience and discussions I have had with pros.
Week 11 Review:
1) Josh Allen QB, BUF $8,500 – 12.58 fantasy points. This one hurts as I rarely recommend paying up at a highly-priced QB; this is why. Allen has the chance to smash, but an average game at this price puts you immediately behind in your cost investment.
2) Brian Robinson Jr. RB, WAS $5,300 – An abysmal 5.7 fantasy points. Gibson is taking most of the carries, and the offense is not struggling as much under Heinicke.
3) Darnel Mooney WR, CHI $5,400 – Mooney only finished the day with 12.9 fantasy points, even with the TD.
4) Garrett Wilson WR, NYJ $4,900 – 3.2 fantasy points. Last week was one of the most bizarre finishes for fantasy as a low-scoring week.
5) Tanner Hudson TE, NYG $2,900 – 0 fantasy points.
6) Rams DST, LAR $2,900 – I’ve learned my lesson. Stop picking on the Saints, as the Rams could only scrounge 4 fantasy points.
Week 12 ‘Pick-Six’ Pics:
1) Geno Smith QB, SEA $6,000 – The Seahawks have an implied total of 25.75, and the Raiders are projected at 21.75, making this the second-highest scoring game of the week with two lesser defenses.
2) Jeff Wilson RB, MIA $5,900 – Wilson has emerged as a clear chalk pick in a backfield with only him as the healthy runner. The Dolphins are projected to have the highest scoring implied total at 30.5. Wilson will be a workhorse behind the best offensive line in the NFL right now.
3) Mike Evans WR, TB $6,700 – Touchdown regression is here. Evans has been held out, and that finally stops today.
4) Mark Andrews TE, BAL $6,500 – The only target for the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s go. JAX allows half the top fantasy points to TE, but they have not had a challenge like Andrews yet. TE Likely has also been ruled out.
5) Mack Hollins WR, LV $4,400 – Adams is projected to crush today, and Hollins makes for an excellent pivot play. For Gino to thrive, we need the Raider’s offense to fire on all cylinders. For these reasons, I like this flex play/
6) Chiefs DST, KC $2,800 – Almost no recognizable names will be starting for the Rams this week. Darrell Henderson is gone, and Stafford, Kupp, and Robinson are all out in today’s matchup.
