“Seven hours of commercial-free football… start now!” Words we have yearned for while waiting for the 2022 season to begin.
First, Scott Henson serenades you with his intro, and now you wait for the outcome of the fantasy gods. I want to help you make selections giving yourself clarity as to why you made that decision.
The process is crucial to successful results. Toyota is known for one of the world’s best processes, The Toyota Way. It is a deeply entrenched cultural and management philosophy that focuses on continuously improving how work is carried out, looking for faults in the system/process rather than the people.
You must understand how to determine games and stacks to target along with high-ceiling individuals to fill the gaps in your roster. What will help you drastically is to write every game on a piece of paper or in excel. Note the home team, over/under, total, and spread. Now write every player that you like in the matchup. Do not worry about salary yet; the point of the exercise is to see all the games and find opportunities. For example:
ATL +10.5 @ LAR -10.5 O/U 46.5
QB Matthew Stafford LAR
QB Marcus Mariota ATL
RB Darrell Henderson Jr LAR
RB Corderrelle Patterson ATL
WR Cooper Kupp LAR
WR Allen Robinson LAR
WR Drake London ATL
TE Kyle Pitts ATL
Rams DST
Let’s say these are the picks that you feel have value. The Rams are predicted to win by a large margin. Now ask yourself this, knowing the ceiling is high with the home team, can the Falcons force the Rams to score more points to win? Once you do this with every team, you will notice trends and lean into certain games. The games you have marked with minimal picks will help you fill the other roster spots out of your stacks.
“I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.” – Confucius
Here are the results from last week’s selections.
1) Lamar Jackson QB, BAL $7,300 – Lamar had 10.8% ownership and scored 21.22 fantasy points. This was meant to be a safe pick, and we got it.
2) Najee Harris RB, PIT $6,400 – Injuries are unforeseen, and it’s unfortunate we lost Harris late in the game. Especially in one that was full of bizarre outcomes. 10.6 fantasy points with 11.7% ownership.
3) Mike Williams WR, LAC $6,600 – I had to google if Williams was still on the Chargers in the 3rd quarter. 8.2% ownership and an abysmal 3.00 fantasy points. If you have him in season-long, DO NOT panic, it was just one of those weeks.
4) George Kittle TE, SF $5,900 – Was ruled out of the game with a groin injury after the article was posted.
5) Dameon Pierce RB, HOU $4,800 – 9.5% of owners felt the shock of getting work stolen by Rex Burkhead. As a result, just 4.9 fantasy points were earned on the day.
6) Vikings DST, MIN $2,200 – 3.7% ownership, and donated 12 fantasy points to the cause. Low ownership of a cost-effective piece is what we seek; Vikings delivered.
Now let’s look at my selections for this weekend.
Week 2 DraftKings picks
1) Derek Carr QB, LV $6,200
Just like the Ikea commercial with the lady running and screaming at her husband, “start the Carr!” A home game with an O/U of 51.5 and a plethora of weapons in a position for payout. The Cardinals were lit up at home last week, and there should be no reason Derek Carr won’t repeat the onslaught. A 100% passing completion percentage on play-action shows the run game their run game is effective. Ball protection was a concern, but that was a fearsome defense they faced on the road. Don’t sweat it this week; let him drive.
2) Chase Edmonds RB, MIA $5,200
The Ravens allowed 28.1 fantasy points to RBs last week against the Jets. Speed kills, and Miami is littered with it. Chase Edmonds caught 4 passes for 40 yards and 12 rushing attempts for 25 yards. He’s a TD away from hitting the numbers you want at this price. Save here and spend up at TE to run it back.
3) Allen Robinson WR, LAR $5,500
“The cheaper the stock, the better the outlook for future returns.” – Robert Haugen. Unfortunately, Allen Robinson didn’t bring the week one stats that most fans expected. However, the attractive price tag is what I am looking at. HC McVay was vocal about getting him more involved. Another game with high totals and playing at home. Strong pivot play from the hordes of people selecting Cooper Kupp this weekend.
4) Courtland Sutton WR, DEN $6,100
Jerry Judy has some hype from last week, but Sutton is WR1 and held a higher snap count. Another home team with a high-scoring line at -10 makes this even more intriguing. On 3rd down, Sutton had 3 receptions for 65 yards. Both RBs fumbled at the goal line, so now we know who Russ trusts.
5) Mark Andrews TE, BAL $6,800
This is the most expensive TE for the week. Picking the #1 TE doesn’t seem like a hot take. However, consistency is critical, and that’s what we will get. Many bettors will pivot, and we have already built quality selections at a bargain price to afford Mark Andrews. As Lamar’s most trusted receiver, he is at home in a game with a -3.5 spread.
6) Lions DST, DET $2,600
This is the first since 2020 that the Lions are favored to win, which means it’s a first for Dan ‘Motor City’ Campbell. The defense was solid against the Eagles last week, finishing 10th against the pass, but the running game broke them. Commanders QB Carson Wentz threw for 313 yards and 4 TDs but turned the ball over twice.
The Lions’ run game is what will keep this DST off the field. We know when they are on, it’s against a turnover-prone QB. The chalk this week will be the Cincinnati Bengals. For only $2,200, you will get a premiere defense against a Cowboys team without Dak Prescott. High ownership will come with it, allowing you to have different roster constructions.
