Every year in fantasy football I take some time to find defense and special team units that I can get late in the draft, very late.
Just like a 24-hour Whataburger, you can get these defenses whenever you want, preferably in the 19th or 20th round. I look for DSTs that are unlikely to be drafted at all because of their preseason ranking. Why? For one, a fair amount of the top defenses drafted early do not end up panning out.
Take a look at the 2021 season, for example. The top drafted defenses included Pittsburgh, Washington, and Baltimore. These defenses ended the year ranked 17th, 22nd, and 26th, respectively, with interceptions, fumble recoveries, safeties, and blocked kicks worth 2 points and sacks worth 1 point (DST touchdowns are 6 points of course). Why spend a 10th-round pick on a defense that is difficult to project because of so many moving parts and pieces and more exposure (11 guys) to unpredictable injuries when you have almost as much of a chance to get a top 5 defense in the 19th round?
The biggest reason to not take a defense in the middle rounds is you will be missing out on possible viable skill position players in those earlier rounds. If you take some time and look at all of the additions and subtractions for different defenses it is very likely you will find a productive defense, or two, at the very end of the draft. Additionally, even if your late DST doesn’t turn into a top 5 defense, there is often not a big difference between say the #6 and the #15 defenses. In 2021 for example, there was a 24 total point difference for the year between the #6 defense Tampa Bay and the #15 defense, Green Bay. That’s 1.4 points per week – and that’s if your late pick doesn’t become a top 5 defense. If your DST unit drafted late makes a jump and becomes a top 5 defense, you have just increased your chances of winning your league.
Possible players you missed on in 2021 by taking a defense early, in say the 10th round, might have included Leonard Fournette, Dallas Goedert, Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks, James Conner, Jaylen Waddle, Jalen Hurts, Tony Pollard, Darnell Mooney, and Devin Singletary —I could go on. These were all very useful fantasy players in 2021.
The bottom line: I’d much rather have Jaylen Waddle in the 10th and the Packers defense in the 19th than the Buccaneers defense in the 10th and Randall Cobb in the 19th. You are not always going to hit on those mid-round picks like the guys listed above, but you are way more likely to hit on a mid-round guy than a late, late guy. Fantasy football is a game of numbers — if you play the percentages enough you have a better chance to be successful. And like I said, I think it’s totally possible to get a top 5 defense at the very end of the draft – I’ve managed to do this more than a few times playing fantasy football in the last twenty years. Don’t be that owner locking in the “top” defense in the 9th round — you quite possibly just weakened your roster significantly.
Ok, now that I’ve convinced you to wait until the very end to draft a defense (I think), which defenses in 2022 can be drafted outside the top 12 and therefore be had at an incredible value?
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
As mentioned above, the Steelers finished 2021 as the 17th ranked DST based on the scoring system mentioned from above – that’s not what you are looking for. A big problem with the Steelers defense in 2021 was several major injuries, including defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt missing the entire year and Tyson Alualu missing almost the entire year. Both of these guys are excellent run defenders and their absences caused Pittsburgh to finish ranked 32nd (that would be dead last) in run defense at 144 yards allowed per game in 2021. At this point, both of these guys are projected to be back in 2022.
If your league possibly awards 2 points for a sack (one of my biggest leagues does) then Pittsburgh will likely be fantasy gold because as poor as the Steeler defense was in 2021, they somehow led the NFL in sacks with 55. With OLB JJ Watt (22.5 sacks), DT Cameron Heyward (10 sacks), OLB Alex Highsmith (6 sacks), backup DT Chris Wormley (8 sacks), and DT Stephon Tuitt (11 sacks in 2020) all productive pass rushers, the Steelers have an abundance in this area, including the all-time single-season record holder in Watt. The Steelers also have some depth up front with 2021 contributors Montravius Adams and Isaiahh Loudermilk in addition to 3rd round draft pick and productive collegian DeMarvin Leal out of Texas A&M.
At linebacker, the Steelers added free agent Myles Jack to take over for Joe Schobert, which is an upgrade, to play alongside Devin Bush (former 1st round draft pick) who has a good chance to bounce back after a rough 2021 since he will now be further removed from an ACL tear in week 5 of 2020.
In the secondary, the Steelers only recorded 13 interceptions in 2021, but they replaced cornerback Joe Haden with Levi Wallace (Bills) in free agency which projects to be another upgrade. They also re-signed 5th-year safety Terrell Edmunds to play alongside playmaker Minkah Fitzpatrick. Solid corner depth returns with Cam Sutton and Ahkello Witherspoon (76 PFF grade). Tuitt, Alualu, Jack, Bush, and Wallace all appear to be upgrades over who was playing their position last year (2022 Bush being better than 2021 Bush), which is a significant number. More importantly, the Steelers have major playmakers in Watt, Heyward, Tuitt, and Fitzpatrick to rack up those stats. Some concerns are age (Heyward and Tuitt) and injuries (Watt, Tuitt, Alualu), but good luck finding a defense without age and injury concerns — it’s the NFL, and sadly someone gets hurt seemingly every other play.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Because of off-season additions and improved health, I see Philadelphia making a big jump defensively from the middle of the pack to top 10 – and maybe better. You have to look at sacks and interceptions as the primary defensive scoring drivers, depending on your league’s scoring system – fumble recoveries are more random in my opinion. One of the Eagles’ leaders in sacks for several years before last year was Brandon Graham, and he was lost for the season in game one of 2021. Assuming a return to health (he says he back to 100%) you can probably pencil in 8-9 sacks for him based on his career numbers.
The Eagles also added Hasaan Redick in free agency this year. This is a significant signing based on the $45 million contract they gave him and the fact that he has had double-digit sacks each of the last two years. The Eagles also added solid players in linebacker Kyzir White (67 PFF) and corner James Bradberry (63 PFF) in free agency.
Now, take a look at the draft, where the Eagles picked up mountainous Jordan Davis (6’6” 340 lbs) from Georgia in the first round who ran a 4.78 40 before the draft – this is an absurd size/speed combination. They also drafted highly productive linebacker, Nakobe Dean, from the same ferocious Georgia defense in the third round. That’s a total of six new pieces to the defense that should all contribute positively. Consider also quality players in returners Fletcher Cox (8 sacks in 2020), Javon Hargrave (8 sacks in 2021), Josh Sweat (7 sacks in 2021), linebacker TJ Edwards (76 pff grade 2021), corner Darius Slay (81 pff), corner Avonte Maddox (73 pff) and you have a defense full of plus players, including five legitimate pass rushers.
Additionally, the Eagles’ schedule looks like fantasy greatness when you see the number of teams with shaky offenses – Giants and Redskins twice (although I see the Giants as a sneaky breakout candidate), Detroit, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh (another possible breakout), Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Chicago, and New Orleans – “fantasy greatness” doesn’t do justice to this level offensive ineptitude. I am seeing Philadelphia ranked around #16 in preseason DST for 2022 – this team should take a big positive jump with all of these quality additions and puny offensive adversaries.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
As pointed out with the Eagles, the schedule is important with DSTs. Considering this, the Bengals would be an excellent late draft choice, but would not be good late in the season. In Weeks 13-17, opponents for the Bengals are Chiefs, Browns, Buccaneers, Patriots, and Bills – that is not a recipe for a bunch of sacks and interceptions. However, Weeks 1-12 opponents include the Steelers twice, Jets, Dolphins (possible offensive breakout), Ravens twice, Saints, Falcons, and Panthers (possible breakout) — that’s a lot of fantasy goodness facing those offensively challenged teams. So as long as you don’t mind picking up another defense late in the season, the Bengals DST should be a productive, late choice.
Start with the pass rushers – DE Trey Hendrickson (14 sacks in 2021), DE Sam Hubbard (7.5 sacks), and DT BJ Hill (5.5 sacks) will likely continue to give better than average production. Throw in second-year DE Joseph Ossai who had seven pressures in 38 snaps, including a sack of Tom Brady, in his one preseason game in 2021 before a season-ending injury, and that’s four guys capable of rushing the passer effectively. To get four interceptions out of LB Logan Wilson in 2021 is a definite bonus from that position, in addition to solid play.
In the secondary, Chidobie Awuzie (83 pff), Vonn Bell (74 pff), solid safety Jesse Bates, and two high 2022 secondary draft picks: Daxton Hill (1st round) and Cam Taylor-Britt (2nd round) should continue the upward trajectory of the defense, as evidenced by the Bengals allowing 27 points/game in 2020 and 22 points/game in 2021. An added bonus to all of this will likely be the high-scoring Bengals offense. Having the lead late in games often leads to telegraphed late passing attempts, which oftentimes leads to additional sacks and interceptions, and even better, those huge DST touchdowns at times.
