Here is my selection of Brilliant, Bold, and Bonkers picks for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway.
Brilliant – These NASCAR drivers have the best shot to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway
All four Championship drivers have an equal opportunity to win this final race at Phoenix Raceway, thus they are all listed under the Brilliant Category this week. Some, however, have a better chance than others. Here’s the breakdown.
Denny Hamlin
He’s one of two drivers in the final four without a Championship win. The experts don’t put him at the best odds, but Denny Hamlin wants this win more than anyone else racing for it on Sunday. He and his team need to execute perfectly for it all to come together—and that means no tape on the grill, no pit-road penalties, and no temper flare-ups. Only then might the No. 11 have the chance at this crowning glory he’s waited so long for.
Phoenix Wins: 2
Top-5 finishes: 15
Top-10 finishes: 19
Kyle Larson
It might seem like Kyle Larson has this season wrapped up—and he might. But he might not. It’s his first season racing for Mr. H and though he’s been amazing, there’s a lot of pressure riding on this No. 5 team. And he’s racing against a veteran who wants this more than anyone on the list. But Larson is Larson, and it’s likely that he’ll get this win if the No. 11 doesn’t.
Phoenix Wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 5
Top-10 finishes: 8
Chase Elliot
Chase Elliot can pull it out of his ass at the last minute—we’ve all seen it. Outside of road courses, the reigning champion has not been as impressive this season as everyone assumed after such a win. But he’s kicked it into high gear since the playoffs began and you know he’s going to push it all day. We know he’ll have the car, but he, too, must run clean in order to get a repeat Championship because sometimes it’s the little things that can make or break an outcome.
Phoenix Wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 4
Top-10 finishes: 7
Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. kinda snuck into this top-four at the last minute, and it could have gone either way for him in the end. But he’s here, and he’s not going to squander an opportunity to grab another championship title. His car must be solid and his pit crew must be spot-on, though, in order for him to have a chance.
Phoenix Wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 5
Top-10 finishes: 13
Bold – These are my NASCAR sleeper picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
These three drivers have a great opportunity to play spoiler this week, though it’s unlikely that anyone other than a Championship driver will win this race. It seems to be part of the Cup Series etiquette in recent years to let the final four duke it out with no interference. However, these guys don’t seem to follow the rules when it comes to making a statement or getting a win. They’re all great at this track, Harvick exponentially so, and they all feel like they have a lot to prove. I hedge my bets on Harvick, though, because Kyle might hang back if it looks like one of his JGR teammates has a better shot.
Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick has the best numbers here out of all the current drivers and it’s probably his best track ever. Most laps led (1,662), best average finish (8th), and zero DNFs. Don’t count out the No. 4 on Sunday.
Phoenix Wins: 9
Top-5 finishes: 18
Top-10 finishes: 26
Kyle Busch
Ole Rowdy and Kes had a bit of a toss up after Martinsville, and then Rowdy gave an unsavory interview. I’ll skip the details, but he’s now required to take sensitivity training before 2022. I’m sure Kyle Busch would like to cap this wild season with a win and call it a day.
Phoenix Wins: 3
Top-5 finishes: 12
Top-10 finishes: 22
Joey Logano
Joey Logano’s four DNFs here worry me, but otherwise, he has been top-three in the last three races. I just hope he won’t knock championship contenders out of the way for a win.
Phoenix Wins: 2
Top-5 finishes: 7
Top-10 finishes: 14
Bonkers – Stay away from these NASCAR drivers in your fantasy lineup at Phoenix Raceway
Regardless of who wins the NASCAR Championship Race this weekend, it won’t be one of these not-great-at-Phoenix-Raceway drivers. Better luck next year.
Ryan Blaney
He didn’t make the final four, and maybe it’s just as well. Ryan Blaney’s numbers here aren’t great and it would have been a tough sell in a season like this. Time for the No. 12 team to regroup and plan for next year.
Phoenix Wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 2
Top-10 finishes: 6
Alex Bowman
If you think that Alex Bowman is going to race anywhere near the front of this group, you’ve got another thing coming. After last week’s win and subsequent drama, I’m counting on the No. 48 to hang in the middle and stay out of everyone’s way in Phoenix. Besides, his numbers here are thumbs-down and he has three DNFs. Boo.
Phoenix Wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 0
Top-10 finishes: 1
Brad Keselowski
Without a Championship in his sights, Brad Keselowski is looking ahead to his amazing new driver/part-owner adventures in 2022. That probably doesn’t include a win on Sunday.
Phoenix Wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 8
Top-10 finishes: 12
