What do you get when you take fantasy projections, mix them with intangibles like home field and past history, then add things like my general mood and regional bias? You get the world’s first “Fantasy Abacus”, and it’s what I’ll be using for the Week 1 NFL Vegas line picks. Enjoy.
Thursday 8:20 PM EST
Bills at Rams (+2.5)
Let’s start the 2022 season with a rematch of Super Bowl LVl! Wait, the Bills didn’t make it to the championship? Has anyone seen this year’s fantasy rankings? The Bengals? The Cincinnati Bengals? I’ll be damned. Regardless, this should be a fantastic game. How often do NFL champions open the next season as underdogs?
For the Bills, Josh Allen begins the year as a fantasy king. For the Rams, Cooper Kupp wants another triple crown. He’ll need one if the Rams continue to struggle in the run game. Last year, the Rams rushed for 99.9 yards per game compared to Buffalo’s 129.9. Buffalo has looked sharp in the preseason, and you wonder if the Rams will have a Super Bowl hangover.
Fantasy Abacus says: The Bills get points for a 10-5-1 record against the spread last year. The Rams lose points for failing to cover the spread 9 times. They also lose points for Stafford’s elbow and for uncertainty in their backfield. The Bills win and cover.
Sunday 1:00 PM EST
49ers at Bears (+6.5)
Each team enters the game with a 2nd year QB under center, but that’s where the similarities end. With 10 NFL starts under his belt, Justin Fields hopes his new coaching staff can help him build upon lessons learned in a brutal 2021 season.
Meanwhile, Niners QB Trey Lance made only 2 starts in 2021, twice as many games as he played in his final year of college. Fortunately for Lance, his talented roster makes him a popular breakout candidate. If Fields can’t help Darnell Mooney build on last season’s numbers (81 catches/1,085 yards/ 4 TDs) he’ll never get that hype, or the first home win against the Niners since 2016.
Fantasy Abacus says: Chicago loses points for failing to cover only 2 games as an underdog last year. They gain a point if you can name a Bears receiver other than Mooney. Take the Niners and the points.
Saints at Falcons (+5.5)
Jameis Winston was the first pick in the 2015 draft, and Marcus Mariota was second. Now both QBs must save their careers with different teams. Winston tore his ACL as a Saint last year while Mariota threw a total of two passes for the Raiders in 2021. Offensive trends mean little between a Brees-less Saints squad and the Ryan-free Falcons, so look for defense here.
Nobody beat the Saints against the run last year. Atlanta’s best rusher is a 31-year-old wide receiver. Their best receiver is a 21-year-old tight end. The Saints have their own problems with Alvin Kamara coming off his worst statistical season ever, posting career lows in average rush (3.7), touchdowns (4), and receptions (47) despite a career-high in attempts (240). Still, look for Kamara to avoid the 29th-ranked defense like he avoids suspensions.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take points from the Falcons for their dismal home record against the spread last year (1-6). Give the Saints points for a healthy Thomas and Winston and for what should be several Mariota interceptions. Saints win and cover.
Browns at Panthers (-1.5)
Do you think Baker Mayfield will wake up feeling angry when he plays the team that traded him in favor of Deshaun Watson? Is a jilted Mayfield enough to cover the spread? Mayfield’s starting record is a mediocre 30-30, but much better than his 39% success rate against the spread. For the Panthers, that would be an improvement as they covered a mere 29% of the time.
On the other hand, the Browns only managed two road wins last year, both with Baker as their starter. If the Panthers can get Christian McCaffrey to his projected 20 fantasy points, Mayfield should have no problem outperforming Jacoby Brissett, whose 28-32 record has him ranked as QB 31.
Fantasy Abacus says: Points to the Browns for a head coach not on the hot seat. Points to the Panthers for McCaffrey while he’s upright. Points to the Panthers for opening as a dog and becoming the favorite. Take the Panthers to cover at home.
Ravens at Jets (+6.5)
Wait, there’s another QB castoff playing against his former team? Deja vu. At this point in his career, Joe Flacco was supposed to back up Zach Wilson and sell peanuts during timeouts. But with Wilson injured in the first preseason game, the Automaton from Audubon will try to outperform Lamar Jackson, who has outperformed his own contract by winning an MVP already.
The Jets haven’t opened the season with a home win since 2015. With projections showing 26 more fantasy points for Ravens starters, it’s unlikely they’ll get one here.
Fantasy Abacus says: Points to Lamar Jackson for holding out for “stupid money”. Points to the Ravens for actually having a healthy team to start the year. No points to the Jets, in this column, or in the actual game. Take Baltimore to win and cover.
Jaguars at Commanders (-3)
Washington leads the all-time series 6-1 against the Jaguars, with Jacksonville’s last win coming against an ill-prepared Steve Spurrier in 2002. The Jags sputtered with their own college legend last year until finally cutting Urban Meyer in week 14. The Jags had three wins last year, but new coach Doug Pederson brings a championship pedigree and a .750 win percentage against Washington to the matchup. Pederson opened three of his last five seasons against Washington, winning twice and losing to Washington in the 2020 opener.
The Commanders will start Carson Wentz, the QB “hot potato” of the NFL, and Pederson’s old pal. Had Wentz not choked against the Jags while a member of the Colts in last year, Indy would have made the playoffs, and the “Wentz Wagon” would still be parked in Naptown.
Fantasy Abacus says: The Jags get a point for having an adult head coach. The Commanders get points for a better receiving group but lose them all for having the worst owner in football. That said, look for Washington to cover the spread like they cover a scandal.
Eagles at Lions (+3.5)
You’d never know from this pithy article, but I’m a Philly guy. But even I’m getting uncomfortable with how many people are picking the Birds to win the division. We don’t handle positivity well. It’s our Kryptonite. Do people realize Philadelphia only beat one winning team last year? Sure, they led the league in rushing last year, but 10 rushing scores came from the quarterback. Miles Sanders didn’t have a single touchdown despite being the RB1.
However, Detroit’s defense is atrocious and you wonder how much Aidan Hutchinson can help a team that just gave up the second most points in the NFL (44 of them in a home loss to the Eagles). Philly finished 2021 strong, but went 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Lions are 1-4 in their last five openers, but covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 contests, slightly less than a Lions fan covers his eyes during a typical game.
Fantasy Abacus says: The Eagles get all the points. I’m a homer. They win and cover in Motown.
Patriots at Dolphins (-3)
The Patriots have lost 4 of their last five games to the Dolphins and have a 38% chance of winning this one. Still no word on who will call plays for the Patriots, but if you’re looking for a dark horse candidate, keep your eyes on that guy waving the giant orange gloves on the sideline.
Miami looks to have more talent, but the fantasy spread between the teams is razor thin, with Miami projected to score .03 more points than New England. The Dolphins were 8-8 against the spread last year while the Patriots were 10-6. The Dolphins have a bunch of new toys this year and they’ll look to make a splash against their division rivals.
Fantasy Abacus Says: Despite being a 5-point home underdog in their last meeting, Miami beat New England by 9. Give the Dolphins points for home field, momentum, and knowing the name of their OC…it’s Frank Smith. Take the Dolphins to cover.
Colts at Texans (+8)
What’s a Texan? Aside from a mailing address, what distinguishes a Texan from people from Dallas or Waco? Demographic research shows that the average (Houston) Texan is likely an unmarried 33.3-year-old customer service representative named Olivia. That’s about as intimidating as a 37-year-old QB from Exton Pennsylvania.
Good thing Matty Ice has Jonathan Taylor who projects more fantasy points than the entire Houston Backfield. Fantasy projections aren’t close, but if the Texans can keep the score close, Dameon Pierce should have a big day. If they can’t, Olivia can always watch Red Zone.
Fantasy Abacus says: The Colts have won their last five meetings against the Texans, including a 31-0 road beatdown against a 10-point spread in the last game. Points to the Colts for the QB upgrade and for having the top players at all positions. Points to the Texans for starting the season drama free, but it won’t be enough. Colts win and cover.
Steelers at Bengals (-6)
Joe Shiesty seems feisty after losing a useless organ, and the Pittsburgh offense looks pretty good without Big Ben. Pittsburgh has won 67 out of 105 games against Cincinnati, but the Bengals beat the Steelers twice last year. Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris led the league with 381 touches and 74 receptions last year and he’ll need more of the same to keep up with the Bengals 8th ranked pass game.
Fantasy Abacus says: Points to the Bengals for their winning record against the spread, points away from Pittsburgh for their losing record. Points to Joe Burrow’s surgeon and points away from the Steelers for not starting their best QB. Take the Steelers anyway.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST
Raiders at Chargers (-3.5)
Think there will be a few L.A. Raiders fans in the stands for this one? It should be the happiest reunion since Davante Adams joined his old college quarterback in the silver and black. No points for home-field advantage here. The Chargers ended last season with a 3-point road loss to the Raiders despite being a 3-point favorite. The AFC West should be a dogfight all year, and this game will be no different. Fantasy projections are fairly close here, so to paraphrase the late Al Davis, “Just cover Baby!”
Fantasy Abacus says: Points for the Raiders for winning 3 of the last five matchups against the Chargers. Points to Josh McDaniels starting a “Belichickian” run with a second team. Add two points for Justin Herbert’s flow, but take them away for the lack of fan base. Take the Raiders to cover.
Chiefs at Cardinals (+3)
The Chiefs receiver group isn’t exactly a “Who’s Who” of “Whose That?” but they sure have a “Coulda Woulda Shoulda” feel to them. Tyreek Hill now has a “more accurate quarterback” in Miami, so the Chiefs must rely on free agents like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu needs to find the 1,426-yard MoJo he had in 2018. That’s 86 fewer yards than he’s totaled since then.
Arizona hopes Kyler Murray can target his Oklahoma teammate Hollywood Brown as often as Andy Reid wins openers. Reid is 15-8 on opening day, 7-1 since joining the Chiefs and he should win here.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take a point from the Cardinals every week until Hopkins returns and take a point for their 2-6 home record against the spread last year. Add a point for the Chiefs for having a much better coach and a QB that does his homework. Chiefs win and cover.
Giants at Titans (-5.5)
Giants and Titans… a battle of synonyms? The New York “Large Fellas” have a QB likely playing his final year with the team, as do the Tennessee “Big Guys”, especially if Malik Willis gets on the field for any reason. Both have running backs with quads bigger than my water heater, but neither has receivers that scare anyone. A.J. Brown left for Philadelphia and talent has apparently left Kenny Golladay’s body.
Fantasy projections skew heavily towards the Titans who had a 10-6 record against the spread last year. Flip those numbers and you have New York’s record against the spread.
Fantasy Abacus says: Give points to the Giants for the return of Saquon Barkley and the removal of Joe Judge. The Titans get points for home-field, consistent coaching, and a healthy Derrick Henry in a contract year. Titans cover.
Packers at Vikings (+1.5)
Remember the 38-3 beatdown the Packers took against the Saints to open the 2021 season? Maybe it’s the mushrooms talking, but I’m feeling another Green Bay letdown this week. Rodgers is obviously the best player on the field, but in Minnesota, I’ll take Cousins, Cook, and Jefferson over Rodgers, Jones, and TBD.
Both teams had winning records against the spread last year with the Vikings beating a 1 point spread at home against the Packers. Former Rams OC, Kevin O’Connell should be an upgrade for the Vikings, and somebody should check Aaron Rodgers water bottle.
Fantasy Abacus says: Fantasy projections are nearly identical across all position groups. Give the Vikings points for home field and the enthusiasm of a new regime. The Vikings should cover and may even win.
Sunday 8:20 PM EST
Buccaneers at Cowboys (+1.5)
No team is expected to score more fantasy points than Tampa Bay this week. No team manages to disappoint its fans more than the Dallas Cowboys. Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith has a long stay on the IR ahead of him, while Tampa Tom is back from his mini-vacation.
Tampa had a 3-6 road record against the spread last year, while Dallas went 5-3 against the spread at home. The Cowboys covered the spread 75% of the time as an underdog. One of these days, Tom Brady is going to act his age. Maybe it starts in Dallas.
Fantasy Abacus says: Give Dallas a point for home field but take one away for Zeke’s stupid belly button. Tampa loses points for Brady’s agitated mindset and for a running back that’s less “Beast Mode” than “Pie a la Mode” these days. The Cowboys (unfortunately) cover.
Monday 8:15 PM EST
Broncos at Seahawks (+5.5)
Here comes Russell Wilson into a city for which he once won a Super Bowl. Make no mistake, Seattle is on the road to next year’s top draft pick, and Wilson will gladly give them a ride. Mix in a second-year RB like Javonte Williams and a former Green Bay OC as head coach and you have the ingredients for a Monday night blowout. Maybe Geno Smith can find D.K. Metcalf enough to keep it close, but the projections say otherwise.
Fantasy abacus says: Give a handful of points to Wilson as the game’s top QB. Take some away as soon as he says something corny. Give no points for any trends with such upheaval on both teams. Give C.J. Stroud a plane ticket to Seattle. The Broncos win and cover.
Good luck everyone. I’ll be accepting congratulations on Twitter @fantasybruce.
