So…how did the Fantasy Abacus do last week.? Well, let’s just say it fell somewhere between Cam Aker’s ground game and the Bills’ efficiency on third downs. In my defense, the abacus got no preseason reps. Let’s see how it does for Week 2
Sunday 1:00 PM EST
Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5)
Shockingly, Lamar Jackson has played well despite making only $23 million this year. Can we just accept that Kirk Cousins is his spirit animal and move on to the actual games? The Ravens beat the Jets last week with Jackson running for only 17 yards. No one ran well for Baltimore, but it didn’t matter against the Jets. Facing a better defense and with their own offensive line injured, Jackson should have more yardage this week. The Dolphin’s run game was even worse last week with 65 yards. Luckily, it seems like Hill and Waddle will get enough looks to keep them both happy and the team competitive. The Dolphins beat the Ravens as an 8-point underdog in Miami last year. They’ll stay close in Baltimore.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take the Dolphins.
Panthers at Giants (-2.5)
With 194 yards of total offense, reports of Saquon’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. But did we underestimate new Giants coach Brian Daboll? Granted, Daniel Jones hasn’t become Josh Allen yet, but there’s something to be said for a coach simply giving the ball to his best player and getting out of the way. Expect more of the same at home against the Panthers, who’ve failed to meet the spread in 5 straight games. Robbie Anderson’s 102-yard performance against the Browns was nice, but not sustainable. Perhaps Carolina’s Matt Rhule will take a page from Daboll’s playbook and give McCaffrey more than 10 carries. At least a “Baker’s Dozen”?
Fantasy Abacus says: Giants win and cover.
Buccaneers at Saints (+3)
In his first game since the pandemic, the Plague of Athens, Michael Thomas scored twice. Jarvis Landry had a sick game as well, dusting himself off with 7 catches for 114 yards. Taysom Hill led the team in rushing, which is probably why they struggled on third down, and barely beat the Atlanta Mariotas. The 4 sacks didn’t help either. Tampa looked efficient in their win against the Cowboys. Fournette shed tacklers like excess pounds for 127 yards, and Julio Jones managed to piss off his previous fantasy owners with 23 yards per catch. The Saints have owned the Bucs over the years, winning four out of the last five games, but their defense needs to get well against Tampa’s shaky O-line. If they get their first sack (and more) on Brady, they should be alright.
Fantasy abacus says: Saints cover.
Colts at Jaguars (-4)
What’s more exciting than watching two winless AFC South teams? There’s not enough time. The Colts didn’t have time to win (or lose) last week and tied Houston for a share of first place in the division. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 175 yards, Matt Ryan threw for 352 yards and Michael Pittman had 121 yards receiving. If the Colts can repeat these numbers, they should win easily. Jacksonville destroyed Indianapolis last year as a heavy underdog, keeping the Colts out of the playoffs. Sounds like a revenge game to me. Taylor should run wild in this one and Matt Ryan should throw his age (37) rather than the 50 pass attempts he had against the Texans.
Fantasy Abacus says: Colts win big.
Patriots at Steelers (+2)
This seems like a steal. How is a team that scored one touchdown a road favorite against a team that just beat the defending AFC champions? Is New England’s resident Sith Lord using some Jedi mind trick? We still don’t know who’s calling plays. Is it Kylo Judge? Darth Patricia? The Patriots looked awful and their quarterback is having back spasms. Give me Master Tomlin’s team all day. They’ll be without Watt, but Najee Harris should somehow be ready to go. I just hope he’s not forcing it. The Pats beat the Steelers 33-3 in their last meeting but had Brady under center. Trubisky is no G.O.A.T, but he’s not baaaaad…I’m sorry.
Fantasy abacus says: Steelers win.
Commanders at Lions (-2,5)
The Lions stay home after losing a close one to Philly. Their backfield looks good so far with D’Andre Swift averaging nearly 10 yards per carry and Jamaal Williams scoring twice. Five Lions receivers had double-digit yardage against the Birds as Amon-Ra St. Brown continued to impress. For the Commanders, Carson Wentz dropped a big F.U. on Colts and Eagles fans by throwing for 4 touchdowns against the Jags. Likewise, Antonio Gibson upset the Brian Robinson Fan Club with 130 total yards. Mix in the resurgence of Curtis Samuel and something good might actually come out of Washington. These teams split their last two meetings, but I’m counting on “Old Carson” to show up on the road before “Old Goff” shows up at home
Fantasy Abacus says: Take the Lions.
Jets at Browns (-6)
“Just get me to the 40.” No, Zach Wilson didn’t say it. It was Cleveland kicker Cade York before his game-winning field goal against Carolina. York accounted for nearly half of the Browns’ points. Amari Cooper was the team’s 5th best receiver last week, so Cleveland must hope Nick Chubb and Hunt can remain effective. Chubb could easily match the 144 yards he had against the Panthers on Sunday. The Jets out-gained the Ravens on the ground and through the air last week but went 2-14 on third downs. These teams have split their last four meetings with New York winning last. Flacco has a 17-3 record against the Browns, but he wears green now, not purple.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take the Browns.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST
Seahawks at 49ers (+8.5)
The good news for Niners fans is they won’t face Saquon Barkley this week. The bad news is it looks like they traded 4 draft picks, some nuclear codes and John Lynch’s hairline for a subpar Jimmy G. Deebo looks very “runner-ish” so far, and should get even more carries with Elijah Mitchell out. Trends for a Wilson-less Seahawks team can be misleading, but the Hawks have beaten the Niners in five straight games, three times as an underdog. Can the Geno-ssance be real? Seattle did nothing in the second half on Monday. They wanted to beat Russ so badly, they may have peaked too soon. They will struggle against an angry San Fran squad looking to make a point against a team that’s probably still celebrating.
Fantasy Abacus Says: Niners win and cover.
Falcons at Rams (+10.5)
How many calls do you think the Rams made to Andrew Whitworth this week? Matt Stafford was sacked seven times and threw three interceptions. Cam Akers had three more carries than my mom, yet rushed for the same amount of yards. Was this the lingering effects of a Super Bowl hangover? Was it rust from a group of starters that sat out the preseason? Or were the Bills just that much better than the Rams? Coach McVay somehow took full responsibility while simultaneously scapegoating Akers. Fortunately for the Rams, their Kupp still runneth over. He could easily have another 128 at home against the Falcons. Atlanta had four sacks of their own last week while “early season” Cordarrelle Patterson chewed up 120 yards on the ground. Three scores is just too much to give a team so early in the year, even a defending champion.
Fantasy Abacus says: Rams win, Falcons cover.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST
Cardinals at Raiders (-5.5)
Ironically, the last time these teams met was also on September 18th, but in 2018. Back then, a plucky young Raider named Derek Carr went 19 for 31, while David Johnson dashed for 137 yards with the Cardinals. Luckily for Vegas, Carr’s passing numbers are much better these days and should get better if Davante Adams can repeat last week’s 10/141/1 line. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, their rushing numbers aren’t so Johnsonesque lately. When your leading rusher gets 29 yards, you’re in trouble. When the leading rusher is your quarterback, you’re in bigger trouble. Arizona’s record against the spread isn’t good and neither is their chance of covering a 5-point spread.
Fantasy Abacus says: Raiders win and cover.
Texans at Broncos (-10)
Note to Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett: Timeouts are not like sick days; you cannot roll them over. Side note to Mr. Hackett; 64 yards is still 64 yards. There is no “shrinkflation” in the NFL. They should probably shrink that point spread though. Sure, Russ just threw for over 300 yards to a talented group of wide receivers. But can a team that just made Geno Smith look like Joe Namath be trusted, even at home? The Texans aren’t great, but at least they didn’t lose last week. Surely the football gods will punish a team that opened their season with a tie, right? It won’t be the Colts, so Denver must strike down upon thee Texans with great vengeance and furious anger (as long as they’re in field goal range)
Fantasy Abacus says: Broncos win and cover.
Bengals at Cowboys (+7)
Let the Cooper Rush era begin. Give him 7 points. Give him 10. It doesn’t matter. The Cowboys couldn’t find the endzone last week, and they’ll find little to no offense in this one. Cee Dee Lamb was quiet as his namesake last week while Noah Brown was the WR1 with WR3 numbers. No one expects Joe Burrow to throw 4 interceptions again, but Joe Mixon should have another solid day on the ground and in the air. Dallas last beat the Bengals by 23 two years ago, but given the state of both rosters, expect the opposite here.
Fantasy Abacus says: Bengals win and cover.
Sunday 8:20 PM EST
Bears at Packers (-10)
The only thing uglier than Aaron’s new man bun was the weather at Soldier Field as the Bears upset the 49ers. It’s impossible to get a read on Chicago given the playing conditions. Chicago fell short in every statistical category but the final score. This game should tell us more. The Bears haven’t beaten the Pack since 2018. In their last meeting, the Bears covered an 11-point spread, losing by 10 at Lambeau. Until Green Bay receivers stop treating the football like a virus, expect Rodgers to remedy the situation with alternative pass catchers like Dillon, Jones, and Tonyan. It wasn’t enough against the Vikings, but it should be enough to win a close one at home against Chicago.
Fantasy Abacus says: Packers win, Bears cover.
Monday 7:15 PM EST
Titans at Bills (-10)
Believe the Hype. With almost 300 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and a win over last year’s champions, Josh Allen looks like an MVP front-runner. The Jared Cook hype is dead, but Gabriel Davis lives. Titan’s Derrick Henry averaged four yards per carry but failed to reach the end zone. Their loss to the Giants has to sting, but can it inspire their performance against a Buffalo team coming home to entertain the Bills Mafia? Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, but 10 points could be too much against Tennessee’s ground game in a potential letdown situation.
Fantasy Abacus says: Bills win, Titans cover
Monday 8:30 PM EST
Vikings at Eagles (-1.5)
Book it: Jalen will score three times Monday night. Reagor, not Hurts. Philly fans just know this will happen. He’ll probably throw for two scores and kick an extra point in his return to the Linc. But seriously, Jalen (Hurts) can’t lead the team in rushes this week, and he’ll need to find more receivers than just A.J. Brown. Defensively, rookie Jordan Davis needs more than 22 snaps or Dalvin Cook will run all day. The Vikings had a solid, Cousins-style game on Sunday. Jefferson might not see 155 yards again, but Adam Thielen is due to find the endzone. Philly hasn’t beaten Minnesota since 2018 and they’ve failed to cover as a home favorite in two out of their last three games. The Eagles have a better Monday night record, but the Vikings should keep it close.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take Minnesota
Enjoy Week 2. I have snacks @fantasybruce.
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