ONE MILLION HISTORY LESSONS: Thomas Jefferson once said, “I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past.” We all dream big. How is it that some people make dreams a reality? Is it desire, tenacity, or comprehension?
One thing in common is mentorship. To accomplish almost anything on a grand scale you must surround yourself with the knowledge and teachings of those who came before you. Let us look at those that came before us and conquered the million-dollar dream playing DraftKings.
The long arm of the law
Quarterbacks’ average spend on salary for the 2021 season was $6,572. Three QBs finished in the top lineup three times.
Take a second to think about this answer. Is it someone who can run for all those juicy rushing yards and rushing TDs? The GOAT Tom Brady? The future, Patrick Mahomes? The answer is Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen.
Now think, why them? What is the correlation? The answer is they consistently distribute the ball to affordable weapons with a previously proven high ceiling.
Week 1 – Joe Burrow ($5,700) was triple stacked with RB Joe Mixon ($6,200) and WR Tee Higgins ($4,700). Total spend of $16,600 – 33.2% of budget.
Week 3 – Josh Allen ($7,000) was triple stacked with WR Cole Beasley ($4,800) and WR Emmanuel Sanders ($4,200). Total spend of $16,000 – 32% of budget.
Week 12 – Matthew Stafford ($7,100) was triple stacked with Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,000) and RB Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,800). Total spend of $17,900 – 35.8% of budget.
You can begin to see the picture that is being painted. Being a contrarian doesn’t mean taking a cheap player who has been performing poorly. It’s about finding a cost-effective alternative if your QB goes off. You risk the downside with a contrarian pick, you also gain the opportunity for reward.
The heard thins out if you hit with a low ownership piece. In most cases, bettors paid up at QB and paired them with a WR that was 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart.
Defense doesn’t win championships
In fantasy football, that is. The defense on the winning team had an average cost of $3,061 and 7.41% ownership. So do they pick a cheap defense and let ‘er rip?! Of course not.
Let’s look at this like a Penn & Teller show. They are known for performing a magic trick and then reperforming it a second time showing you how it’s done. At the end of the second performance, they add a twist that surprises the audience showing their real sleight-of-hand capabilities. The simplicity of the trick is you think you know what’s coming but that’s when they catch you off guard.
Remember this golden rule: you want to hit four times the value of your selection. Defenses averaged 14.72 fantasy points for the winners, so spending less is more.
The ‘added twist’ pros use to predict D/ST scoring is defensive sack rate, defensive pressures on the quarterback, Vegas odds that are greater than -3, and points allowed. The savings at this position are crucial in the role of the next position we are going to talk about.
Tight ends are titans
If you want to dance, you’ve got to pay the fiddler. Where you save at D/ST, spend at TE.
Last season the average cost was $4,833 and only five lineups spent less than $4,000. There is a caveat though. TEs under $4,000 usually outperform WRs and RBs at the same cost. Maximize this when the high-ceiling players are on bye weeks and off the main slate.
What you want to look for are targets and red zone opportunities. Is a key WR not playing? Home-field advantage also offers a slight edge. Another area of focus is if the opposing defense blitzes a lot, TEs benefit greatly when QBs are forced to throw quickly.
Nobody’s perfect
We’ve all done it before, you scroll right past a player and don’t give him a second thought. You know he won’t hit. He only does it every fifth week anyways.
If you change your thought process, you will change your accountant. If you combined the average ownership of all positions it’s 11.12%. Dig deep. In some cases, you will never pick a player because they are the 3rd RB or 4th WR on the depth chart. That makes sense, they may hit but the probability is far lower.
If a team is playing against a strong defense with a premier CB covering an elite WR you can pivot here. Look at the next man up or a deeper WR that has a proven ceiling.
DeSean Jackson was the epitome of boom or bust. This kind of player will get you 2 catches for 28 yards or 2 catches for 128 yards and 2 TDs. You aren’t gambling, you are going with someone with known potential and using that against others.
Look at the basics but do not overlook them. Targets, red zone opportunity, snap%, air yards, aDot, and anything else that could allow a player to hit their potential.
“Creativity is seeing what others see and thinking what no one else ever thought.” – Albert Einstein
