For those of you still drafting, you might be wondering how to approach the quarterback and tight end positions. Should you wait on the bigger names, there are plenty of quality options in the later rounds.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Prior to last season, Drew Brees had been a top 6 fantasy quarterback for eleven consecutive seasons. That streak ended last season, but he still managed the best efficiency of his career, posting a 72.0 percent completion percentage, 1.5 percent interception rate, and his highest yards per attempt since 2011. His touchdown rate dropped to only 4.3 percent, well below his career average of 5.3 percent, but touchdown rate is the second-least predictable stat for quarterbacks.
The Saints were the only team in the NFL last year with more rushing touchdowns than passing; in today’s pass-happy environment, that’s quite the feat. Expect Brees’ touchdown rate to regress to the mean this year – especially since the Saints schedule is much more difficult – and he is likely to return top 6 QB value at his current ADP. Brees is going in the eighth or ninth round of most fantasy football drafts, and he’s a value at that price.
Marcus Mariota,Tennessee Titans
Similar to Brees, Marcus Mariota’s touchdown rate dropped off drastically last year, as he threw a touchdown on only 2.7 percent of his throws. Again, touchdown rate is unpredictable on a yearly basis, and that means we want to target players with uncharacteristically low touchdown rates in the previous year.
With an improved wide receiving corps – Corey Davis is back to full health with an offseason under his belt, Tennessee signed Dion Lewis in free agency, and Taywan Taylor is garnering hype as a breakout candidate – Mariota looks like a bounceback candidate. Mariota isn’t being drafted in some leagues, as his QB17 Expert Consensus Ranking lands him outside of QB1 territory in most formats. Mariota’s rushing ability gives him an underrated floor and impending efficiency regression will make him a value at his current cost.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan’s touchdown rate dropped off dramatically last year, which was expected following the 7.1 percent rate he posted in 2016 (Sensing a theme?). Still, most people did not expect him to fall so far, as his 3.8 percent rate was well below league average. In year two of the Steve Sarkisian regime, expect Ryan to rebound with a plethora of weapons available to him. Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Calvin Ridley is one of the best trios in the league, and running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are both adequate receivers out of the backfield. We want to buy players who posted uncharacteristically poor efficiency in the previous season, and Ryan fits the bill perfectly.
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
For pass-catchers in fantasy football, we want to chase the targets. Jack Doyle finished fifth among tight ends in targets last year, and now he gets a big upgrade at the quarterback position with Andrew Luck returning from injury. In PPR formats, Doyle is as safe as they come – in fact, he has the highest catch rate among tight ends all-time. The former Western Kentucky Hilltopper acts as the security blanket in the Indianapolis offense, as illustrated by his 2017 average depth of target of 5.10, which was near the bottom of the league among tight ends.
While the signing of Eric Ebron will diminish Doyle’s target share a little, the two can operate simultaneously by playing different roles in the Colts offense: Doyle as the checkdown option, Ebron as the athletic field-stretcher down the middle. Luck has supported two fantasy-relevant tight ends before: both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen had eight touchdowns in 2014. The Colts lack options at wide receiver behind TY Hilton, so there is room for both Doyle and Ebron to play significant roles in the Colts offense. Look for Doyle to build off last year’s top 10 finish and cement himself as a mid-tier TE1 with Luck at the helm in 2018.
Benjamin Watson, New Orleans Saints
At his current ADP of TE21, New Orleans Saints tight end Benjamin Watson won’t be drafted in most leagues even though he sneakily finished as a top 12 tight end in fantasy football last year.
Watson rejoined the Saints this offseason after spending one year in Baltimore. As a member of the Saints in 2016, Watson finished as the TE7 and topped 100 targets on the season. The Saints have no other tight ends of consequence on the roster, so Watson will assume the starting role immediately in one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.
The Saints have a lot of mouths to feed – Michael Thomas, Cameron Meredith, Ted Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith, and the running backs duo – and only so many targets to go around, but Watson is worth a gamble at his low-end TE2 ADP due to touchdown upside and the amount of targets he received the last time he was in New Orleans. With back-to-back top 12 finishes and an improved situation, Watson’s ADP makes little sense. While he won’t be drafted in most leagues, keep an eye on his usage in the beginning of the season. If he shows flashes of his 2015 self, he’s worth a speculative add for tight end-needy teams.
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