IN THE WEEKLY FANTASY UNIT, THERE ARE CRIMES COMMITTED THAT WOULD SHOCK AND APPALL YOU: NEGATIVE POINTS, UNDERWHELMING SUPERSTARS AND OUTRIGHT BUSTS. THESE ARE THE FINDINGS OF ONE MAN ON A MISSION TO EXPOSE THE NFL’S BIGGEST PERPETRATORS BEFORE THEY STRIKE AGAIN. THESE ARE … THE FANTASY FILES
Welcome everyone to Week 16 of the 2019 NFL Season! This past week saw the race for the NFC East (finally) heat up, a mammoth upset in Atlanta, and league history was made in the Big Easy.
With the fantasy finals set to go down this week (in most league’s), we want to extend our heartfelt thanks to everyone who has followed along with us during the 2019 season. We’ve had ups and downs, but ultimately, we aimed to do well by you, the readers, as often as possible.
This past week we steered you in the right direction and hopefully got some of you into the finals, let’s take a look at how last week’s suspects performed:
WHERE WE HIT:
- AARON RODGERS (14 points):
- Rodgers’ struggles in 2019 continued against a relentless Chicago Bears defense on Sunday. For the second time this year, Rodgers failed to throw for more than one TD against Chicago, and Green Bay was forced to rely on their rushing attack via Aaron Jones to get the victory. Amazingly, Rodgers threw for the EXACT same stat line in both Bears games this season (203 Pass yds/1 TD), good for a measly 14 fantasy points. The former fantasy juggernaut will look more like fool’s gold in a shaky matchup against the Vikings in Week 16. Start him at your own risk.
- Rodgers’ struggles in 2019 continued against a relentless Chicago Bears defense on Sunday. For the second time this year, Rodgers failed to throw for more than one TD against Chicago, and Green Bay was forced to rely on their rushing attack via Aaron Jones to get the victory. Amazingly, Rodgers threw for the EXACT same stat line in both Bears games this season (203 Pass yds/1 TD), good for a measly 14 fantasy points. The former fantasy juggernaut will look more like fool’s gold in a shaky matchup against the Vikings in Week 16. Start him at your own risk.
- DEVONTA FREEMAN (6 points):
- Freeman predictably took a nosedive this past week against a tough 49ers defense. Despite rising from the ashes and abusing the Panthers in Week 14, Freeman simply could not be trusted against even an above-average defense, let alone San Francisco. The former first-round fantasy pick saw his touch count cut by 5 (12 carries, down from 17 in Week 14), and rushed for just 39 yards on the day, adding 2 catches for only 16 yards. Despite all of this, Atlanta managed to shock the world and upset the 49ers at the last minute, and they’ll carry momentum from that victory into Week 16s game against the struggling Jaguars. Freeman is far from a lock for anything, but he’ll be on the RB2, strong FLEX radar against Jacksonville for the finals.
- Freeman predictably took a nosedive this past week against a tough 49ers defense. Despite rising from the ashes and abusing the Panthers in Week 14, Freeman simply could not be trusted against even an above-average defense, let alone San Francisco. The former first-round fantasy pick saw his touch count cut by 5 (12 carries, down from 17 in Week 14), and rushed for just 39 yards on the day, adding 2 catches for only 16 yards. Despite all of this, Atlanta managed to shock the world and upset the 49ers at the last minute, and they’ll carry momentum from that victory into Week 16s game against the struggling Jaguars. Freeman is far from a lock for anything, but he’ll be on the RB2, strong FLEX radar against Jacksonville for the finals.
- DIONTAE JOHNSON (6 points):
- Pittsburgh’s dynamic rookie came back to earth a bit in Week 15 against a tough Bills defense. We predicted that Buffalo would have a plan to neutralize the talent youngster, and that plan played out pretty much as expected. With Tre’Davious White shadowing him throughout the day, Johnson managed 5 catches for 62 yards and was held without a touchdown. James Washington wasn’t much luckier, catching 5 balls of his own for 83 yards. Owners can chalk this performance up to a touch match-up and turn back to Johnson/Washington as up-side FLEX options in Week 16 against a beaten-down Jets secondary.
- AMARI COOPER (2 points):
- If we had told you that the Dallas Cowboys would demolish the LA Rams and look the best they’ve looked all season, you would’ve told us that Cooper had an amazing game. Right? Wrong. Somehow, someway, in a game where Dallas scored 44 points, Cooper ended up with just a single reception for 19 yards. A match-up with Jalen Ramsey certainly didn’t help, but the fact that Cooper was so limited in a game where Dallas performed so well spoke volumes of where the true value of this Cowboys offense lies. A renewed focus on their rushing attack led to a dominant victory, and Cooper was left out in the cold. This game marked the 5th straight where he’s failed to eclipse 100 yards receiving, but he’ll have the ultimate “get right” spot in Week 16 against the Eagles secondary. Play him with confidence as a strong WR2 with WR1 potential for the finals.
WHERE WE MISSED:
- JONNU SMITH (11 points):
- Smith’s day as a whole was honestly a pretty solid one: he caught all 5 balls thrown his way for 60 yards but was unable to find the end zone. It was (shockingly) a 57-yard RUSHING play that saved Smith was the bust label in Week 15. The big man shocked the Texans’ defense (any everyone watching) with his speed to the outside and produced one of the trademark moments of the game. The knock we had on Smith was that Tennessee’s offense under Tannehill had too many mouths to feed for him to get any consistent work, and that nearly came true (if that run had not occurred). We still don’t trust Smith as far as we can throw him (not far at all), and we certainly don’t recommend trusting him in your fantasy finals against an upper-tier Saints defense.
- GIANTS D/ST (8 points):
- The G Men saved themselves from the bust label in Week 15 by beating back Fitzmagic and casting a spell of their own on a few of his errant passes. As a whole, this was one of the more complete efforts shown by this unit all year. They gave up 20 points (their 3rd lowest total of 2019), and they registered 3 sacks, a fumble recovery and a safety. They will be a sneaky streaming pickup (with risk) in a Week 16 match-up against Washington.
Now, with that taken care of, let’s see who made the list for this final week of fantasy for 2019!
QUARTERBACK: JARED GOFF (L.A. Rams)
Jared Goff fantasy points (by season):
2018: 322 Total Points
2019: 217 Total Points (w/2 weeks to go)
While fantasy-point values certainly aren’t the end-all, be-all measure of a player’s worth, Jared Goff’s steep decline from 2018 has been a troubling one to watch.
The Rams offense has been one of the more sporadic units in the league just one year removed from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, and that trend continued in Week 15. L.A. was decimated by a Dallas team that many saw as lesser than them, and Goff looked nervous all night long. His stat line (284 Yards/2 TD/INT) was almost entirely padded by garbage-time yardage after the game was already well out of hand.
The stat sheets don’t tell the full story here. Goff is struggling right now, and LA is struggling to pull together cohesive victories on a weekly basis. That formula won’t hold up against a 49ers defense that limited Goff to just ONE fantasy point back in Week 6. Sit the Rams QB with confidence in this one.
RUNNING BACK: CARLOS HYDE (Houston Texans)
Carlos Hyde has been one of the biggest waiver wire surprises of the 2019 NFL season. After being passed from team to team for most of his career in the league he’s proven himself to be a valuable part of the Houston Texans offensive attack this season.
His 5 TDs on the year and 136 total fantasy points have far exceeded his 2018 totals, and he’s coming off of a 104 yard/TD showing against a tough Titans defense in Week 15. These accolades are impressive, but they threaten to cloud the judgment of fantasy owners during finals week, and that’s something we just can’t allow to happen.
It’s important to remember that Hyde is still a touchdown-dependent rusher. He’s posted single-digit fantasy finishes in 3 of his last 4 outings and he gets Tampa Bay’s Top 5 run defense in Week 16. We expect Houston to attack Tampa’s soft secondary early and often in this one, and that should leave little for Hyde to do on the ground. He’s best looked at as a risky RB2/FLEX option if you have to start him.
WIDE RECEIVER: JOHN BROWN (Buffalo Bills)
We’ve sung the praises of the Buffalo Bills all year long. Their resilience, youth, and available spending money have made them one of the more intriguing teams in the league in 2019 and beyond.
This week will be their biggest test to date. With a chance at the AFC East crown on the line, this team will travel to Foxboro and look to unseat their hated rival, the New England Patriots. This game is almost guaranteed to be a defensive slog with both teams leaning on their run games to establish dominance. This game script (and a nightmare match-up with Stephon Gilmore) spells doom for the fantasy value of John Brown.
The speedster has been a welcome addition to the Bills offense this year, giving them someone who can stretch the field, but against Gilmore he stands little to no chance of making an impact. Brown can be safely left on the bench for the fantasy finals.
TIGHT END: KYLE RUDOLPH (Minnesota Vikings)
Look who came back!? An old friend decided to show his face again just in time for our year-end wrap party.
Kyle Rudolph had been a stranger for far too long this year. In fact, there was a stretch of time (from weeks 9-13) where we didn’t recognize him at all! With Adam Thielen sidelined due to a hamstring injury, Rudolph seized his opportunity and became the Vikings go-to guy in the red zone during that stretch.
Unfortunately for Rudolph, Thielen came back. Since the return of Thielen, Rudolph’s fantasy value has plummeted back to where we’re used to finding him. With 5 receptions for a combined 59 yards and 5 targets over the past two weeks, it’s safe to assume that his days of dominance are long gone. Add to that equation the fact that his opponent in Week 16 (Green Bay) held Rudolph to just 2 fantasy points in Week 2, and you have a recipe for an instant fantasy bust. Steer clear of the Vikings big man in the fantasy finals.
DEFENSE: CINCINNATI D/ST
As the old adage goes, if at first, you don’t succeed, try, try again. This is our version of that saying, and it includes shaming defenses that are going to play the Miami Dolphins.
As stunning as it is to say, the Dolphins are the better team in this match-up, and Ryan Fitzpatrick should have a field day against this Bengals secondary. On the year, Cincinnati has allowed 402 yards of offense per game to opposing teams (4th highest in the league), and they’re reaching the tail end of a season that’s been lost since about Week 5.
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