As the fantasy football season continues to roll on, player value will fluctuate week to week. Based on production from the first three weeks, here are some running backs and wide receivers who are trending up and some heading in the other direction.
Fantasy Football Risers — Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
After a confusing Week 1 where he didn’t receive a single target, Austin Ekeler has been getting the receiving work we expected out of him. He has 15 targets through Week 3 and he has caught every single one of them for 113 yards and a touchdown. He is also putting in the work on the ground with over 50 yards rushing every week so far.
Ekeler should continue to be a stellar option at running back for fantasy rosters as he offers the rare combination of consistent rushing totals with a heavy receiving workload.
Zack Moss (BUF)
This Buffalo backfield is always confusing and for a team that likes to pass the ball as much as the Bills, it is a little perplexing to see Zack Moss’ fantasy stock rising. Moss was a healthy scratch from their Week 1 matchup against the Steelers but since then, he has become a relevant option for fantasy rosters.
Some of this increased value can be attributed to positive game scripts for the Bills running backs as they have demolished Miami and Washington in back-to-back weeks. Keep that in mind when assessing the season-long value of Moss but as of now, his stock is moving upwards.
James Robinson (JAC)
It looked like James Robinson was going to have a rough season after the output that he produced in Week 1 where he was out-touched by Carlos Hyde of all people. Now Urban Meyer finally seems to realize that Robinson is a very good running back as he received a nice workload in Jacksonville’s Week 3 loss to the Cardinals.
This trend should continue as Robinson’s increased workload led to a more efficient Jaguars offense altogether. Maybe the Week 1 panic from the fantasy football community wasn’t warranted as Robinson has managed to regain the strong grasp on this backfield that he had for the majority of the 2020 season.
Melvin Gordon (DEN)
The Broncos have had undoubtedly the easiest schedule in the NFL through the first 3 weeks. Matchups against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets have led to some more favorable game scripts for the Broncos’ running backs as they manage to be ahead for the majority of them. Preseason evaluations saw this backfield turning over to Javonte Williams sooner rather than later but that doesn’t seem to be happening yet.
As of now, Melvin Gordon should be taking the majority of the snaps in this backfield and it wouldn’t really make much sense for them to move off of him so quickly. Gordon is in a contract year and the Broncos are paying him 8 million dollars so the possibility of him not being involved heavily going forward is unlikely. Expect Gordon’s stock to continue to rise as a decent starter/flex back while Javonte Williams will have to wait till 2022 to really inherit that workhorse role.
D’Andre Swift (DET)
Swift has jumped on the scene this season as the RB3 through 3 weeks. While most people could definitely see the talent in Swift, this outcome was a surprise to most. With Anthony Lynn as the offensive coordinator for the Lions, it looks like Swift has managed to gain an Austin Ekeler type role out of this backfield.
Despite the Lions being by far the worst team in the NFC North, they have managed to put together some impressive performances on the offensive side with Jared Goff relying on the backfield for the majority of their yardage. If the Lions’ early-season offensive game plan continues down the road, Swift should keep up the solid production he has put together through Week 3.
Fantasy Football Stock Down — Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
Christian McCaffrey looks like he might have caught the injury bug. After missing all but 3 games in 2020, McCaffrey has managed to have another injury after just 2 weeks of the 2021 season. The stud running back had an injury to his hamstring in the Panthers’ win against the Texans last Thursday.
This injury is particularly unfortunate as hamstring injuries tend to linger and it is looking unlikely that McCaffrey will be back at 100% when he returns considering a hamstring takes about 3-4 months to heal on average. That doesn’t mean that CMac won’t return, but when he does, the possibility for reinjury is there and he won’t be running at full strength.
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Jonathan Taylor has managed to disappoint throughout the first 3 weeks of this season. Taylor is currently tied for the league lead in carries inside the red zone with 13. You would think that this would lead to some sort of value with him right? Wrong. Taylor hasn’t managed to come up with a single touchdown despite that massive red zone carry total.
Inside the 20, Taylor has 43 rushing yards, which is fine. But then when you take a look at his totals inside the 10 and the 5, it gets pretty ugly. Inside the 10 he has managed to come up with -1 yards and inside the 5 he has managed to come up with 0. Very unfortunate numbers from a running back with loads of potential. Add in the recent news that Quenton Nelson is dealing with a sprained right ankle and it isn’t hard to see why Taylor is watching his fantasy stock fall going into Week 4.
Damien Harris (NE)
With a nice Week 1 rushing total, Damien Harris has seen his rushing opportunities go down from 23 to 16 and now to 6 in Week 3. The Patriot’s offense is not looking great with a mostly conservative game plan as Mac Jones mans the helm. The Patriots definitely like to use pass-catching running backs, à la James White.
But unfortunately, White suffered a season-ending injury that left the pass-catching duties up to another running back, and no it wasn’t Damien Harris. Harris is apparently not seen as a skillful pass-catcher at all by the Patriots, to the point where they’d rather use 9-year veteran running back, Brandon Bolden, over him.
James White being out might’ve seemed like a good thing for Harris’ value at the time, but now it looks like the Patriots are going to be giving even more backs a shot at the receiving work with J.J. Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson joining the mix. This could take even more rushing opportunities away from Harris as the Patriots could be using a combination of these backs more often which will certainly muddy the waters.
Ty’Son Williams (BAL)
Ty’Son Williams looked like the value of the century after that 34-yard touchdown run against the Raiders in Week 1. Since then, he has been somewhat of a disappointment for fantasy rosters. Williams is certainly a talented rusher but his effectiveness at blocking seems to have the Ravens worried. This has led them to use a strange combination of Latavius Murray and Devonte Freeman along with Ty’Son which has led to some ineffective rushing totals.
Nobody looks like they have a strong grasp on this backfield so there may be a new face coming in, possibly Marlon Mack? Either that or the backfield will continue to be a mystery. Whichever option occurs though, you aren’t starting Ty’Son Williams anytime soon.
Elijah Mitchell (SF)
Elijah Mitchell showed out in Week 1 after the season-ending injury to Raheem Mostert which made him a hot name on the waivers leading into Week 2. After large percentages of FAAB budgets were spent, Mitchell has been underwhelming at best for those that won the sweepstakes for him. A disappointing performance in Week 2 and a shoulder injury that kept him out of Week 3 have his fantasy value plummeting as this 49ers backfield continues to get muddier with the signings of countless running backs.
Then turn to midseason when the return of Jeff Wilson Jr. is expected to happen and we could see Mitchell’s value completely dissipate from where it was after Week 1. With all the factors playing against Elijah Mitchell, the future opportunity is looking pretty murky.
Fantasy Football Stock Up — Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp (LAR)
What else can you say other than wow with Cooper Kupp’s production through Week 3? In three games, Kupp has the league lead in touchdown receptions with 5, the league lead in receiving yards with 367, and is tied with Davante Adams for the league lead in receptions with 25.
At his current pace, Kupp is set to end the season with 2,079 receiving yards, which would break the record of 1,964 yards set by Calvin Johnson in 2012. Expect the production to slow down a bit throughout the season, but at this point, Kupp’s value belongs within the top 5 wide receivers in fantasy.
D.J. Moore (CAR)
D.J. Moore looks like he solidified his role as the WR1 in this Carolina offense throughout the first three weeks of the season. Moore has a 30% total target share in this offense and he looks like the only offensive player that Sam Darnold truly trusts outside of Christian McCaffrey.
With Darnold’s play elevating week to week and McCaffrey being out for the next few games, D.J. Moore could handle an even larger receiving total than what we have grown accustomed to in these first three weeks.
Mike Williams (LAC)
Mike Williams has been playing like the receiver we expected him to be coming out of Clemson as the 7th overall pick in 2017. So far this season, Williams is only two targets behind Keenan Allen and is outplaying him as far as yardage and touchdown numbers go. If he keeps up this current pace he’s on, he should be considered a WR1 for the rest of the 2021 season.
The current state of the Chargers should suggest that Williams will continue to be an elite contributor as Justin Herbert emerges into superstar status.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
Finally, Brandon Aiyuk saw some form of usage that reminded the fantasy community of the potential he showed during his rookie season. After barely seeing the field for the 49er’s first two games, Aiyuk found his way into receiving 6 targets. He caught 4 of them for 37 yards while also receiving a touchdown.
While his stat line isn’t mind-boggling, it does provide comfort for Aiyuk owners who spent significant draft capital on him during draft season. Based on the uptick in usage, Aiyuk should be seeing an increase in value as the season progresses.
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)
OBJ is back and he should be looking great from here on out. Beckham sat the first two weeks of the season which frustrated fantasy owners but it looks like that precaution was only to make sure he was 100% upon his return to action. In his first game back, OBJ managed to gather 5 receptions on 9 targets for 77 yards. That target total adds up to a 31% target share of the Browns’ total targets.
That type of usage should be consistent for Beckham as he continues to build a report with Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry continues to recover from his MCL sprain.
Fantasy Football Stock Down — Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (TEN)
A.J. Brown has been a disappointing asset to fantasy rosters thus far. While he has led the Titans in targets through Week 3, he hasn’t been very efficient with his opportunities as he has only caught 7 out of the 19 that have come his way. Add in the fact that he has recently been diagnosed with a hamstring injury and will miss the Titan’s Week 4 matchup against the Jets, Brown’s value should continue to fall.
A.J. could be considered a tremendous buy-low target for teams that can handle his absence, but until he returns to form, he will continue to be a huge disappointment for teams that drafted him.
Calvin Ridley (ATL)
Expected to be a top-5 option at wide receiver, Ridley has been beyond disappointing for fantasy rosters. He is dominating the target share on the Falcons with 29 through 3 weeks but that hasn’t translated into solid production so far. A lot of his struggles can be attributed to the ineptitude of the Falcons as a whole and the dwindling skillset that Matt Ryan has to offer.
Better days should be ahead for Ridley as this Falcons team is expected to be relying on the passing game while playing from behind in most of their matchups. Calvin Ridley is another great buy-low candidate while the Falcons continue to try and find themselves on offense.
Robert Woods (LAR)
On the opposite side of a fantastic receiving campaign in Los Angeles is one that is a confusing letdown. Robert Woods has seen his value fall incredibly far while part of this surging Rams offense. For Woods managers, watching the Rams offense couldn’t be more frustrating as the newcomer Matthew Stafford doesn’t even look toward the 29-year-old playmaker.
It would’ve been nice to hear about Stafford and Cooper Kupp having coffee dates throughout the offseason so we had a firm grasp on who the real number 1 in this offense would be but those reports didn’t seem to get released to the public until it was too late. One would expect Woods to start garnering a few more opportunities per game as the season rolls on but until then, Woods is no more than a WR3 option with some flex appeal.
Allen Robinson II
With receiving yardage totals of 35, 24, and 27, it is hard to not be disappointed with how the early season has fared for Allen Robinson. Expected to be a clear fantasy WR1, Robinson has fallen victim to some awful game-planning from a coach who doesn’t seem like he wants to work in the NFL anymore.
Robinson’s lack of success is most likely a result of Matt Nagy overthinking every situation he is put in control of and some less than stellar cornerback matchups. Hopefully, this Bears offense starts to play into their strengths while also playing into Justin Fields’ skillset. If that manages to occur, better opportunities should arise for Allen Robinson and the rest of the Chicago Bears offensive playmakers.
Tee Higgins (CLE)
Tee Higgins had a productive start to the season in the Bengal’s first two games. He managed to have 4 receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 then 6 receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. He looks like he is going to be a big part of this up-and-coming offense going forward but he, unfortunately, has been dealing with a sore shoulder that put him out of Week 3 and now Week 4.
His fantasy stock wouldn’t be falling if he were healthy but that is just the nature of the game sometimes. Expect Higgins to be available for the Bengals around Week 5.
