Two’s a company, three’s a crowd. One of the more challenging pieces to competing weekly in Draft Kings is finding your third WR to complete your lineup.
To further complicate the matter, the flex role usually garners a higher return on WR selections at cheaper pricing over RBs and TEs. Yet, RBs make excellent flex plays if the RB is guaranteed a high volume amount of touches. I will show you how to find value in players to better your decision-making. To find a player’s value on paper, you divide their projected fantasy points by their salary.
High Price WR Week 4 = Devante Adams, LV
Projected Fantasy Points = 18.2
Salary = $8,300
Value (18.2 ÷ $8,300) = 2.192
Low Price/High-Value WR = Romeo Doubs, GB
Points = 12.0
Salary = $4,500
Value (12.0 ÷ $4,500) = 2.667
You can see that Doubs is far less expensive than Adams, but his value is greater. If you were to draft one of the two for your franchise, sure, you’d pick Adams because we know he consistently outperforms his counterpart. However, all this does is help you gather data when selecting to save and buy up for the major players. On the flip side, when choosing your workhorse in your line, these numbers can help you determine who may have a better day. If metrics and projections are similar, look at their value.
Last week’s selections review:
1) Joe Burrow QB, CIN $6,600 – 8.5% of us got 23.00 fantasy points out of Smokin’ Joe with a fire symbol beside his column.
2) Josh Jacobs RB, LV $5,400 – 14.70 fantasy points and decent ownership of 14.70%. The 2nd place winner in the millionaire maker rostered Jacobs.
3) David Montgomery RB, CHI $5,900 – 32.6% of owners fell to injury and high ownership. Khalil Herbert entered the game and did precisely what I thought the potential for the game was, putting up a 20-157-2 stat line that should have been Monty’s.
4) Stefon Diggs WR, BUF $7,700 – 26.6% and 14.4 fantasy points. This one fell short in considerable value, but the numbers weren’t terrible. We did see a guy get a ball punted up his rear, so at least we got a laugh while Diggs’s came in and out of the 4th quarter.
5) Tyler Higbee TE, LAR $4,500 – 10.10 fantasy points and a 13.6% ownership. Again, this was an average play we didn’t overpay for, and with some other decent pieces, it could have taken you over the top.
6) Eagles DST, PHI $2,900 – #1 DST of the week with 18 fantasy points and 8.1% ownership. Perfection.
Now let’s have a look at this week’s selection:
Week 4 DraftKings Plays
1) Kyler Murray QB, ARI $7,600
This is an excellent pivot play from the BAL vs. BUF game projected to be the O.K. Corral. Even in a projected low-scoring game with an O/U of 43.5, Kyler Murray can do damage with his legs. The Panthers are ranked 12th vs. QBs this year and have faced a relatively weak trio of Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Jameis Winston. So do yourself a favor and watch any toddler running away from parents’ video, and that’s how Kyler runs. You won’t be able to unsee it.
2) Damien Harris RB, NE $5,300
If you immediately wanted to close the internet window after seeing this pick, I understand. Here’s the thing though the Pats aren’t just good with their run game, they have the best-adjusted line yards in the NFL right now. Do you know who has the worst adjusted line yards? The Green Bay Packers. The Packers are excellent at getting to the QB and RB pass catchers, but not so much for ball carriers.
Let’s also look at who is in the top 5 for red zone work. Damien Harris has entered the chat. Inside the 5-yard line, Harris ranks 20th in the NFL and 7th for RBs. If Harris gets 15 carries, he could hit 100 rushing yards and a TD. Do not forget that you get 3 bonus points if your RB hits 100 yards in DraftKings.
3) Rashaad Penny RB, SEA $4,900
Rashaad Penny is my recommended flex play. If you can find a relatively inexpensive RB for flex that can get 15+ carries, you must smash that play. The Detroit Lions have the worst Adjusted Points Allowed against RBs currently. I currently have Jamaal Williams at 27% ownership. Travis Homer went on the IR, and Kenneth Walker III only has seven carries and five receptions on the season. Geno Smith is the most accurate QB in the NFL right now. They will get the ball down the field, and Penny should have value in all four quarters.
4) Diontae Johnson WR, LV $6,000
You are at a fair, and your significant other says, “I want you to win me one of those big teddy bears.” So naturally, you would want to play the games where you get the most opportunities. Diontae Johnson is 6th in receptions on the season and averaging 11 targets a game. Johnson has been holding an average of 14.2 fantasy points without a TD. So let’s get us a teddy bear this week against the Jets.
5) Robert Tonyan TE, GB $3,500
This week’s TE option is a tricky pick. I like David Njoku, Kyle Pitts, and Tyler Conklin (2nd in receptions for TEs). So Tonyan is more of an educated decision against the Patriots, who do a great job living by the mantra give nothing cheap and nothing deep. Tonyan will be a safety option for Rodgers, who faces a defense that gives up the 4th highest amount of TE fantasy points. In a game of wildly guessing who Rodgers will throw to, given the trust issues, I will take the cheaper TE he trusts and is still in the top 10 for receptions for his position.
6) Giants DST, NYG $3,100
The Bears have the least amount of total yards on the season. QB Justin Fields has 23 completions on 45 attempts for the season. That’s a regular day for some QBs. With RB Montgomery out and Herbert being a high chalk play this week, this is a solid pivot to pay up. Even if Herbert runs for 150 yards and 2 TDs again, there are plenty of turnover and sack opportunities with minor yard damage and scores against you.
