2023 fantasy football preview: AFC South

This series will analyze every NFL team by division to forecast key fantasy football performances and overall team outlooks with futures bets in mind.

Divisional fantasy analysis:
AFC North | AFC South | AFC East | AFC West
NFC North | NFC South | NFC East | NFC West

Jacksonville Jaguars 

2022 Record: 9-8 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 9.5 Wins (Over) 

Team Outlook: The Jacksonville Jaguars had a breakthrough season with new head coach Doug Pederson. The Jaguars started off 3-7 before heading into their week 11 bye but completely turned it around. The Jaguars went on to win 6 of their last 7 games and finish 7th in point differential, which shows they were not just beating teams, they were stomping them. They even won their first playoff game in a spectacular comeback against the Chargers after being down 27-0 to start the game. They have a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, and elite offensive weapons with the addition of Calvin Ridley. While the offensive line and defense could be a bit shaky, the AFC South does not offer much resistance and they deserve to be division favorites (-155). 

Quarterback 

Trevor Lawrence

Average Draft Position 56.0, QB8 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If you have read my previous articles, you know that I have put in a bet for Lawrence to win NFL MVP. He is a long shot at +1800, but the Jaguars should win the division and could surprise some people with the addition of Ridley. We saw the Bills and Eagles explode after the addition of an alpha wide receiver and Lawrence and the Jaguars can do the same.

As a passer, Lawrence was solid last year throwing for 4,113 yards (9th) and 25 touchdowns (10th). While Lawrence isn’t a terrific runner, he finished 10th in rushing yards with 291 but 5th in rushing touchdowns with 5. At 6’6” he should continue to vulture some touchdowns this year. Lawrence finished as the QB8 last year without Ridley and is currently being drafted there now. He could be a league winner in fantasy football this season. 

Running Back 

Travis Etienne

Average Draft Position 29.3, RB12 (FantasyPros ADP)

Travis Etienne is entering his 3rd season in the NFL, but what really feels like his second after his rookie year was taken away with a foot injury. Etienne had a solid year last season, finishing as the RB17. He finished 16th in touches with 255, averaging 15 touches per game. While that is not amazing volume, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry (4th in the NFL) and 9.1 yards per reception which ranked 5th amongst running backs.

The Jaguars took running back Tank Bigsby in round 3 which states that they aren’t entirely thrilled with Etienne. The gamble this year in fantasy is predicting how much Bigsby will be involved (Etienne played 77% of the snaps with starters in preseason Week 1). At 24 years old, Etienne has elite RB1 upside if he grows in the passing game and has better touchdown luck. If Bigby takes on a big role though, he could bomb in fantasy football. He’s actually my RB10 and someone I would take in late round 3 of fantasy football drafts. 

Tank Bigsby, Average Draft Position 161.7, RB61 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Another solid handcuff this year in fantasy football. Bigsby was a beast at Auburn for the past three years racking up 2,903 yards and 25 touchdowns averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Camp reports have been strong and the Jaguars clearly see Bigsby having a role after spending a 3rd round pick on him. In round 13, Bigsby is the type of no-risk, high-upside pick you want to make in your drafts. 

Wide Receiver 

Calvin Ridley

Average Draft Position 43.0, WR18 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The hype is growing and will continue to grow for Ridley the closer we get to Week 1. He started in round 5 and is starting to creep up into round 3. There’s a strong reason why, Ridley was a MONSTER with the Falcons posting 1374 yards and 9 touchdowns which led to a WR4 finish in 2020. However, it has been a year since he played football and that same level of productivity may not be there anymore. At WR18 and in round 4, I have no problem drafting Ridley as a potential high-upside receiver who can finish in the top 5 if all goes great. However, if he creeps into round 3, I’ll be out on Ridley. 

Christian Kirk

Average Draft Position 75.3, WR30 (FantasyPros ADP) 

When Jacksonville offered Christian Kirk a 4-year, 2-million-dollar contract, they were mocked everywhere. However, Kirk had a fantastic season and really helped Lawrence develop into what he is today. Kirk finished as the WR11 and was a huge value for fantasy football owners. In 2023, Kirk is being drafted as a WR3 in round 8. While he won’t be on many of my teams because I tend to lean more toward wide receiver early on, Kirk could be a great addition to your roster if Ridley isn’t who we think he is in 2023. I have Kirk ranked as the WR28. 

Zay Jones

Average Draft Position 172.7, WR62 (FantasyPros ADP) 

A piece that helps the Jaguars and Lawrence more than he helps your fantasy football team. He’s an interesting waiver add if Kirk or Ridley go down. 

Tight End 

Evan Engram

Average Draft Position 81.7, TE8 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Again, I think this is another piece that helps the Jaguars and Lawrence perform more than it helps your fantasy team. Evan Engram was a great pick last year, finishing as the TE6 and reviving his career. The problem is he was 3rd on the team in targets behind Kirk and Zay Jones. Now the Jaguars have added Ridley and it looks like Engram will finish 4th in targets. I’m out on Engram in fantasy football in 2023.

Tennessee Titans 

2022 Record: 7-10 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 7.5 Wins (Over) 

Team Outlook: Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Every year as an Indianapolis Colts fan, I don’t think much of the Titans and every year they do better than I think. They’re never a sexy team to watch, but they find a way to win games and beat high-quality opponents. While many think the Titans may be rebuilding, their acquisition of Deandre Hopkins tells me they still think they have a strong chance to win the AFC South. With Ryan Tannehill back for a full season, Deandre Hopkins, and Derrick Henry, the Titans are an interesting bet at +310 to win the division. From a fantasy football perspective, there are some valuable pieces. 

Quarterback 

Ryan Tannehill

Average Draft Position 197.5, QB30 (FantasyPros ADP) 

You don’t need to draft Tannehill in 1-QB leagues. However, in 2 QB leagues, Tannehill can be a nice value. In 2020 and 2021, when Tannehill had A.J. Brown as an elite wide receiver, he finished as the QB7 and the QB12 in four-point per passing touchdown leagues. Brown is of course out, but Hopkins is in, who showed he still has plenty of juice left last season. He adds a better-rushing floor than you think, averaging 268 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2020 and 2021. In 1-QB leagues, he could be a nice streaming option if you decide to punt on QB in your drafts. 

Running Back 

Derrick Henry

Average Draft Position 16.7, RB7 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The king. Since 2018, Henry has finished as RB19, RB2, RB4, RB1 (Before injury), and RB3. However, there are some concerns. Henry has of course handled a monster workload in all of those years, his efficiency has declined each year, the offensive line is bad, and he turns 30 this season. However, Henry has been doubted for years because of his age and workload and has continued to prove the doubters wrong.

This year, the risk is baked in a bit as he typically goes in the second round of fantasy football drafts. This could be the year that Henry breaks down and is a shell of his former self, but if he’s still Henry, and you can draft him in round 2, you are on your way to winning your fantasy league. If Henry survives to late round 2, it will be very hard for me to not draft him. 

Tyjae Spears

Average Draft Position 166.0, RB63 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Henry can overcome age and a horrific offensive line because he is Henry. While Henry is at high risk for injury because of the workload, I am not necessarily rushing to grab Tyjae Spears. At 5’11” and 201 pounds, he will not be able to handle a big workload, and he is not the most athletic after running a 4.54 40-yard dash.

The Titans drafted him in round 3 after an electric career at Tulane, and he should be the Titans’ backup with Hassan Haskin’s legal situation, but I am not using a fantasy pick on him. He’ll be a waiver add if Henry gets hurt but I’m not sure if I would use 10% of my FAAB budget on him if it happened. 

Wide Receiver 

DeAndre Hopkins

Average Draft Position 50.7, WR20 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Playing for the Arizona Cardinals last year after a six-game suspension, Hopkins showed he still has some gas left in the tank. He finished as the WR10 on a points-per-game basis in half ppr. Tannehill has supported a WR1 in fantasy football before in Brown and should be able to do it again. The Titans needed an alpha wide receiver and he should get a large percentage of the targets on this team. He has shown that he still has the ability and at WR20 though injuries have been catching up. Still, he’s a solid value in round 4/5 turn. 

Treylon Burks

Average Draft Position 99.3, WR39 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Treylon Burks suffered an LCL sprain in training camp which could cause him to miss the first couple of weeks in the regular season. As long as Tannehill/Henry has been in town in Tennessee, the only wide receiver two that was relevant was Corey Davis in 2020 who finished as the WR31. Other than that, they really have not been able to make a difference on fantasy rosters. Burks has talent and was the WR21 through weeks 11-13 last year, but I just don’t see a major upside other than WR3. I’ll pass on Burks in favor of other wide receivers with more upside. 

Tight End 

Chigoziem Okonkwo

Average Draft Position 127.0, TE11 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I mean, the name alone should almost make you consider taking him. However, Chigoziem Okonkwo actually showed some promise last year within this Tennessee offense. Through Weeks 13-18, Okonkwo was the TE8 in fantasy football.

Most tight ends do nothing during their rookie seasons, so it is very impressive that he had that stretch. That being said, I don’t know how much Okonkwo can do now that Hopkins is in town. But, with Burks potentially missing the first couple of weeks, he could establish himself as the number two in Tennessee. He’s my TE14 and worth a dart throw.

Indianapolis Colts 

2022 Record: 4-12-1 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 6.5 Wins (Under) 

Team Outlook: As an Indianapolis Colts fan, the past 5 seasons have been tough with a different quarterback every single season. The offense has been bland and boring but things seem to be changing. Say what you want about Anthony Richardson, but I don’t think boring is the word to describe him. At 6’4” and apparently 255 pounds now running a 4.43 40-yard dash, Anthony Richardson is the most athletic quarterback in NFL history. The question is can Shane Steichen develop him as an NFL passer and can he do it quick enough to support other players in this offense for fantasy football? Other than Richardson, the Colts just aren’t very good. Chris Ballard has drafted good players in the past but they’re older and injured now and aren’t in valuable positions. I lean under on my Colts again this season. 

Quarterback 

Anthony Richardson

Average Draft Position 116.3, QB15 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Fantasy football quarterback strategy is changing before our very years. For years the strategy was to wait on a quarterback, however, that strategy means you missed out on some nuclear performances from quarterbacks.

My fantasy strategy is to still pass on the top 3 in Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen. I want Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Lawrence, or Joe Burrow, but if I miss, I want all the Richardson I can get.

Do I think he will be a great real-life quarterback from the start? No. However, in fantasy football, Richardson’s rushing ability just gives him such a high floor and if he can pass the ball, he’s a league-winning type pick. On top of that, he is going in the 10th round so you can pair him with an “Ok” fantasy quarterback if you’re afraid he won’t start. I’m targeting Richardson in fantasy football drafts. 

Running Back 

Jonathan Taylor

Average Draft Position 13.7, RB6 (FantasyPros ADP) 

What a mess. Jonathan Taylor is sitting out of training camp because he wants a new contract and doesn’t seem to be coming back soon. He may get traded. As a Colts fan, why not sign and pay Taylor? We’re not good and a good run game could be helpful for Richardson.

From a fantasy perspective, Taylor started the offseason as a top 6 pick but has slipped into round 2. In mock drafts, I have even seen him fall to round 3. Similar to Henry but for different reasons, Taylor in round 2 is risky, but can also win you fantasy football leagues. If he falls to the back of round 2 or early round 3, I will take Taylor just because of his league-winning upside and the value that he becomes. Remember, you’re not playing fantasy football to get second place. 

Deon Jackson/Incoming Free Agent Running Back, Average Draft Position 229.0, RB74 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Obviously, if Taylor misses time or is traded, someone will have value. Right now with Zack Moss breaking his arm, Deon Jackson holds the reins but the free-agent running back just visited but did not sign. It’s a situation to monitor as we get closer to the start of the season but the 8th/9th round for any incoming free agent, Jackson, or Moss is the highest I will go if Taylor is traded. This offense still might not be great and Richardson could steal a lot from the goalline. There are other running backs with higher upside. 

Wide Receiver 

Michael Pittman Jr.

Average Draft Position 76.3, WR31 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Michael Pittman was hyped up to finally have his year three breakout season this past year and let a lot of fantasy managers down. It wasn’t really his fault, Pittman is talented but Matt Ryan couldn’t get him the football because of his poor play and bad offensive line. This year, Pittman is really hard for me to figure out because his outcomes are very wide. If Minshew starts and plays a lot, Pittman could be a really solid value after still finishing as the WR23 last season despite the horrendous quarterback play.

If Richardson plays the majority of the season, we have no idea what he can do as a passer and it’s safe to assume he’ll be worse than Minshew passing the football which could really hurt Pittman. Not only is accuracy a concern if Richardson plays but the play calling is too. There will be far more rushing if Richardson plays. At the current cost, at the beginning of the 7th, I will probably pass on Pittman. 

Alec Pierce

Average Draft Position 177.0, QB69 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Alec Pierce is a waiver wire adds if you suffer some injuries at the receiver position. He’s a solid deep threat that can catch a long touchdown at any moment. With Richrdson’s arm talent, he could have some blow-up weeks but the consistency won’t be there to be a reliable fantasy option.

Tight End 

Jelani Woods

Average Draft Position 253.5, TE34 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Massive human being at 6’7” and 253 pounds, but nothing more than a potential streamer this season.

Houston Texans 

2022 Record: 3-13-1 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 6.5 Wins (Under) 

Team Outlook: The Houston Texans won the last game of the 2022 season against the Indianapolis Colts causing them to lose the 1st overall pick and Bryce Young. Still, C.J. Stroud is a pretty good consolation prize. Stroud dominated at Ohio State and in the semi-final playoff game, showed that he could show out against one of the best defenses in college football history in Georgia. The Texans do not project to be a good team at all and could be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes next year if they get the top overall pick. Stroud should be an upgrade over Davis Mills and have a chance to create some prominent fantasy options in Houston. 

Quarterback 

C.J. Stroud

Average Draft Position 163.7, QB23 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Stroud’s strength as a prospect was his ball placement and accuracy. In the college football playoffs, Stroud showed some ability to be mobile but most of the time he liked to remain in the pocket and deliver accurate and well-timed passes.

In one quarterback league, I am not interested in Stroud late. He does not have that many passing weapons and he has a weak offensive line although maybe you could argue the Texans could pass a lot this year because they’ll be trailing. In any case, I think Stroud boosts the value of other weapons in Houston but I’m not sure he’ll be valuable himself in one quarterback leagues. 

Running Back 

Dameon Pierce

Average Draft Position 44.7, RB18 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Dameon Pierce had an impressive rookie year finishing as the RB22 on a points-per-game basis. This season, I would be in on Pierce as a young running back who has shown promise, but in round 4 I am not thrilled to take him. The Texans added Devin Singletary who should compete for touches with Pierce and the Texans’ offensive line still is being put together. Pierce is my RB21 because of his ability as a runner, but his upside is capped because of the offense he plays in.

Devin Singletary, Average Draft Position 143.3, RB46 (FantasyPros ADP) 

After spending the last four years in Buffalo, Devin Singletary arrives in Houston to play with Pierce in the backfield. Singletary is still only 25 years old and has been a decent runner averaging 4.7 yards per carry in his career. If Pierce went down, Singletary would have some low-end RB2 value based on volume alone. However, this offense would hold him back from being anything more. 

Wide Receiver 

Nico Collins

Average Draft Position 164.3, WR59 (FantasyPros ADP) 

One of my favorite wide receiver values of the 2023 fantasy football season, Nico Collins was taken in the 3rd round in the 2021 draft out of Michigan and is a big-bodied receiver at 6’4” 216 pounds. He was the number two receiver on the Texans last year and showed some promise. Now Brandin Cooks is gone and there are 93 targets that leave town. Collins should fill that number one spot and could receive a large target share. As your 5th wide receiver, he costs nothing and has WR2/3 upside. 

Tight End 

Dalton Schultz

Average Draft Position 128.7, TE13 (FantasyPros ADP) 

To be a top 5 tight end, it really is about being able to consume a lot of targets for your team. Those that are top two in targets on their team really see a boost in overall performance. This year Dalton Schultz has a chance to do that. While Tank Dell just put up an epic preseason performance, Schultz has been a solid TE before finishing as the TE5 on a ppg basis in 2021.

While he will not be playing the Dallas Cowboys high-powered offense, Schultz could be a streaming tight end who delivers decent yardage and catches, rather than just hoping for a touchdown. I am grabbing Mark Andrews a lot in round 3, but if I do not get him, I like Schultz as a late-round guy.

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