In this series, we’ll dig into the numbers and examine offseason moves to assess whether some of fantasy football’s top names and most intriguing players are worth their current ADP.
Quick hits on Christian McCaffrey heading into 2023
Pros:
- Elite talent
- High-powered offense committed to the run game
- Remains an excellent receiving threat
- No competition at the running back position
- Offensive guru at head coach
- Coming off a healthy season
Cons:
- Weak offensive line
- Injury-prone
- Presumed number 1 overall pick
- Lots of other elite skill position players to choose from
Christian McCaffrey’s 2023 fantasy overview
Christian McCaffrey is arguably the most talented player in the running back position in the entire league, and it’s worth remembering just how good he’s been when healthy.
In just his second season as a Carolina Panther, he had over 1,000 rushing yards and almost 900 receiving yards, on 107 catches. In his next season, he had almost 1,400 rushing yards and broke over 1,000 receiving yards off of 116 catches. Those stats are absolutely crazy if you stop and think about them. To have 1,387 yards of rushing in a season already puts you in the elite tier of just purely runners. To then have over 1,000 receiving yards makes him essentially a receiver.
But three years have passed since that epic 2019 season. He missed a lot of time over the next two seasons due to injury, but in this last season, which was mainly as a 49er, he had a fully healthy season and came away with 1,139 yards of rushing and over 700 yards of receiving, showing that he certainly can be a great asset to your fantasy football team.
He will soon be coming off of a full offseason with the 49ers and with a greater understanding of the playbook. The team’s been very committed to running the ball and has had great success doing that with backs like Matt Bredia, Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and Elijah Mitchell. These are decent players but nowhere near the class of McCaffrey.
CMC will also be running under arguably the most innovative play caller in the league in Kyle Shanahan, who may have best exhibited this when his creative play designs helped Deebo Samuel have that phenomenal 2021 season.
With all this said, the injury concerns are hard to overlook. He missed the bulk of the 2020-2021 seasons and though he stayed on the field last season, the risk is still high, especially when you’re likely spending your top overall pick on him. Just that fact alone is a bit of a red flag personally, as in my experience, whoever is the obvious number one overall pick almost rarely meets those lofty expectations.
There’s also the 49ers’ weak offensive line to note, though this is far less of a concern than the health issues. Even though the only really good offensive lineman is Trent Williams, this is largely the same offensive line that McCaffrey ran behind last season where he put up plenty of big numbers.
While there is not a running back who can challenge him for touches, there is a tight end and two receivers who can take away plenty of targets, which if you are in a PPR league, could be detrimental to his production. The flip side to that, though, is fewer touches could help him avoid potential injuries.
How to play Christian McCaffrey in 2023 fantasy football
Personally, even though I am a 49ers fan, I will be very cautious with McCaffrey in 2023. The best ability is availability, and even though he is no doubt still an elite player, the injury risk is quite high for a likely top-overall pick.
Still, if you have the number one overall pick, you might want to consider drafting him, letting him play really well over the first three weeks of the season, and then try flipping him via a trade to fill a position of need. This all depends too on how competitive your league is and how active your league mates are in making deals.
Ultimately, if you are going to take McCaffrey, definitely think about picking up another running back in the second round and trying to land Elijah Mitchell or even Jordan Mason if you are competing in a deeper league.
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