2023 fantasy football preview: NFC South

This series will analyze every NFL team by division to forecast key fantasy football performances and overall team outlooks with futures bets in mind.

Divisional fantasy analysis:
AFC North | AFC South | AFC East | AFC West
NFC North | NFC South | NFC East | NFC West

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

2022 Record: 8-9 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 6.5 (Under) 

Team Outlook: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone from the greatest player of all time at quarterback in Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask. As a player, Tom Brady of course is a massive upgrade over those two even at his age, but from a leadership perspective, it’s even worse. If the Buccaneers do start losing games, will players in the locker have the same faith in Baker Mayfield as they did with Tom Brady? In fairness to Mayfield/Trask, this team and roster are not as good as the one Brady had. This team will struggle to find wins and will be one of the worst teams in the NFL. 

Quarterback 

Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask, Average Draft Position 227.5, QB32 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The ADP above is for Baker Mayfield who is the projected starter at this point. In fantasy football, I would recommend completely staying away from the quarterback room in Tampa Bay which you probably are already. 

Running Back 

Rachaad White, Average Draft Position 64.5, RB26 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Rachaad White with the 91st pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. White sat behind Leonard Fournette last season but still finished with 179 total touches and an impressive 50 catches. Leonard Fournette has left town leaving 262 touches behind. I don’t usually like to draft players based on volume alone, but Chase Edmunds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are the only backs behind them. The offense won’t be great, and Rachaad White has not proven to be an efficient back averaging 3.7 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per reception, but Baker Mayfield likes to throw to running backs and White could be a volume-based RB2 in 2023. I have him ranked as my RB24. 

Wide Receiver 

Chris Godwin, Average Draft Position 65.5, WR27 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The Buccaneers led the NFL in passing attempts per game with Tom Brady. With Tom Brady gone, I do think it comes down a bit because head coach Todd Bowles may want to put games in the hands of his defense rather than in the hands of his quarterbacks. This will hurt the Bucs receivers as a whole. However, Godwin finished as the WR17 on a per-game basis and he is now two years removed from his ACL tear in 2021. The quality of his targets will also be worse, but I am okay with Godwin at his current ADP. I have him as my WR24, but I am not excited to draft Godwin. 

Mike Evans, Average Draft Position 80.0, WR35 (FantasyPros ADP) 

One of the most impressive feats in the NFL currency belongs to Mike Evans. At age 30, Evans has had 9 straight seasons with 1,000 yards. He has had an incredible career and I feel scared betting against him this season. The offense should throw a lot less and Evans had his lowest fantasy finish at WR16 that he has had in 5 seasons. I truly feel that only one of these receivers will be valuable this season because the offense is in the hands of Baker Mayfield. I feel more confident betting on the younger receiver who finished higher on a points-per-game basis last year and is further removed from injury. At age 30, I see Evans declining this year and have him ranked as the WR38 but if you believe he’ll still be the same guy, you are getting a massive discount. 

Tight End 

Cade Otton, Average Draft Position 272.0, TE35 (FantasyPros ADP) 

You’re not drafting Cade Otton and neither am I. Maybe he emerges as a streaming option, but I doubt it because of the better pieces around him and this team throwing less in 2023.

Carolina Panthers 

2022 Team Record: 7-10 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 7.5 (Under) 

Team Outlook: As an Indianapolis Colts fan, I really do believe that Frank Reich is a solid coach in the NFL. He was handed 5 different quarterbacks in 5 years and was never able to develop a rhythm with one of them. It makes sense that the Panthers gave away all that they did to get Bryce Young so that Frank Reich got his guy at quarterback. Young will have an up-and-down rookie year, as almost every quarterback does, but I am hoping he can stay healthy with his slight frame. The offensive line is average (PFF Rank #16) and the weapons at receiver and tight end need to be upgraded in the offseason. The defense is also below average and nothing to get excited about. Frank Reich will find a way to scheme guys open, but I am not sure this offense will be powerful enough to reach 8 wins. 

Quarterback

Bryce Young, Average Draft Position 151.0, QB19 (FantasyPros ADP) 

After a fantastic career at Alabama, the Panthers traded up to select Bryce Young 1st overall in this past year’s draft. At Alabama, Bryce Young showed elite accuracy and play-making ability but was surrounded by elite playmakers. Still, if Bryce Young was 6’3” 220 pounds, instead of 5’10” 205 pounds (if that), he would have been a no-brainer number one pick. From a fantasy perspective, Frank Reich will do a good job scheming up easy plays for Bryce Young, but the weapons here just cap his upside. I also worry if he can stay healthy for a full year, but he’s my QB18. 

Running Back 

Miles Sanders, Average Draft Position 49.0, RB19 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Last season, Miles Sanders revived his career with over 1200 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last season with the Eagles. He finished as the RB13, but this year feels like a dead zone back to me. Sanders was impressive, but he was running alongside Jalen Hurts which opened up running lanes and behind the best offensive line in football. Not to mention, defenses had to gameplan to stop AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, and will now only have to worry about Adam Thielen and DJ Chark.

Sanders also just does not do it as a pass-catching running back. He only had 20 catches last season and averaged a very low 3.9 yards per reception. Bryce Young will also look to run when under pressure and not to check down to his back. Sanders is not a piece in an elite offense anymore, which is why I’m passing on him as RB19. 

Chubba Hubbard, Average Draft Position 171.3, RB55 (FantasyPros ADP) 

A potential handcuff for Miles Sanders owners, but really doesn’t offer much upside even if Sanders does get hurt. He’ll be a waiver pickup if he does go undrafted, but will only be necessary if you really need running back help. 

Wide Receiver 

Adam Thielen, Average Draft Position 144.3, WR54 (FantasyPros ADP) 

At 32 years old and playing in a much less effective offense with no one to draw coverage away from him, I don’t see how people would want to draft Adam Thielen in their drafts. He also has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. He’s a great story and a player I loved during his prime in Minnesota, but I don’t see him reviving his career in Carolina. 

D.J. Chark, Average Draft Position 180.3, WR64 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I am not searching for Carolina wide receivers in my draft, but if I were to take one it would be D.J. Chark. He’s only 26 years old compared to Theielens 32, and averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game on the Lions being the second or even third option. If Chark could emerge as Young’s number one target, there is a path to an upper-end WR3. I have Chark 7 spots higher than ADP at WR57. 

Update: Recent hamstring injury. I’ll pass on Chark and be higher on Thielen drafting him as a WR4. 

Tight End

Hayden Hurst, Average Draft Position 201.3, TE26 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I am looking to take Mark Andrews in round 3 for almost all my drafts, but Hurst is another dart throw at tight end late in drafts that does have a path. Hurst could be the first or second on his team in targets which is rare to find amongst tight ends. Not a bad flier for those who like to wait at TE.

New Orleans Saints 

2022 Record: 7-10 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 9.5 Wins 

(Under) 

Team Outlook: The Saints finished 7-10 last year and brought in Derek Carr to try and help them get back to the playoffs. The problem is that in his 9 years as a QB in Las Vegas, he finished with over 10 wins just twice. Carr is a decent quarterback and does make the Saints better, but I don’t think he’s worth three wins. Carr finished 29th in completion percentage (60.8%) and posted a career-worst 2.8% incompletion rate which was the worst of his career. The Saints defense is their strength and definitely gives them a shot to win the division but I think they fall just short to Atlanta. While Carr is coming off a down year, he showed he can still support fantasy options which could potentially boost some of the Saints’ skills position players in 2023. 

Quarterback 

Derek Carr, Average Draft Position 171.3, QB23 (FantasyPros ADP) 

As I said above, Derek Carr is coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro, which caused him to get benched at the end of 2022. A new scenery might be just what he needed, but I don’t see Carr being valuable to your fantasy team this season even if he does have a bounce-back year. The Saints ranked 12th in rush percentage last season and that should remain similar in 2023. 

Running Back 

Alvin Kamara, Average Draft Position 67.3, RB25 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The NFL suspended Alvin Kamara for the first three games of the season. He finished as the RB17 last season after receiving 280 touches (9th in NFL). With the suspension and the additions of Jamaal Williams in free agency and Kendre Miller in the NFL draft, that number is sure to come down. Kamara’s efficiency has dropped through the years averaging under 4.1 yards per carry each of the past two seasons. This might explain why the Saints looked after other options to help Kamara in the backfield. At age 28, and with the addition of the 3-game suspension, I’ll probably pass on Kamara at his current ADP. He’s my RB29.

Jamaal Williams, Average Draft Position 100.0, RB36 (FantasyPros ADP) 

It’s Jamaaaaal that. I really hope you know the video I am talking about. It’s awesome. Jamaal Williams finished as the RB8 last year with 17 rushing touchdowns but came to New Orleans with 0 chance to do that again. Kamara is in front of him once he comes back from suspension and has the passing game locked up already. Williams could get involved in the red zone, but for me, it’s just not worth taking him when there are running backs with higher upside around him. Williams is my RB37. 

Kendre Miller, Average Draft Position, 159.0, RB51 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Kendre Miller seems to have avoided a serious knee injury and is back practicing for the Saints. Unfortunately for Miller in fantasy this year, I don’t see much of a path to fantasy excitement for the rookie. Alvin Kamara and Williams sit firmly ahead of him and should get the majority of the work this season. If he shines while Kamara is out, Miller could work his way into a bigger role, but I don’t see him being so good that he keeps Williams and Kamara on the bench. 

Wide Receiver 

Chris Olave, Average Draft Position 28.3, WR13 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The Saints drafted a good one last season in wide receiver Chirs Olave. Olave crushed all the efficiency metrics. He finished seventh in yards per route run, and his average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.1 yards was the 11th-highest in the NFL. He can get open anywhere on the field and can definitely do so deep down the field.

The Saints brought in Derrick Carr and while the change in quarterback concerns me, it could be a great fit. Derek Carr threw 22 passes over 30 yards (4th in the NFL) and routinely threw the ball deep to DeVante Admas. The return of Michael Thomas however could prove to take away volume from Olave, and the Saints just don’t run that many plays. The Saints averaged 59.7 plays per game which was 7th slowest in the NFL. Olave finished as the WR25 on a points-per-game basis last year despite his breakout. Olave is my WR13, but he’s definitely more boom or bust than the fantasy community is making him out to be. 

Michael Thomas, Average Draft Position 107.7, WR42 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Injuries will always play a factor when drafting Michael Thomas as he has played 10 games over the past three seasons. He just can’t seem to stay on the field. In a world where he does play a good chunk of the season, Thomas has shown the ability to be effective. Still, I’ll pass on Thomas because of his history of injuries even if I miss out on a stretch of solid weeks.

Tight End 

Taysom Hill, Average Draft Position 179.0, TE18 (FantasyPros ADP) 

On websites where you were able to start Taysom Hill in the tight end spot, you landed the overall TE5 on the season. Hill is a massive discount right now, but it makes total sense that he slipped down draft boards because of the stability the Saints now have at quarterback. However, I am not sure Derek Carr is as stable as everyone thinks, and Hill definitely could beat his late-round ADP if Carr begins to struggle.

Atlanta Falcons 

2022 Record: 7-10 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 8.5 (Over) 

Team Outlook: I am very high on the Atlanta Falcons this season and they are my pick to win the NFC South (+215). Arthur Smith has built an identity in Atlanta of a ground-and-pound football team. Smith has shown plenty of success in establishing a run game both in Tennessee as an offensive coordinator and as a head coach in Atlanta. NFL defenses around the league are trying to prevent big explosive plays and allowing teams to run a bit more which plays into Atlanta’s strength. Desmond Ridder and some preseason injuries on the defensive side of the ball scares me and my bet, but I have to believe Ridder can’t be worse than Mariota who had the 28th-best passer rating last season. From a fantasy perspective, there are some super-talented playmakers in Atlanta to get excited about. 

Quarterback 

Desmond Ridder, Average Draft Position 219.0, QB32 (FantasyPros ADP) 

You’re not drafting Desmond Ridder in fantasy football because he really did not show much in the 4 games he started and because this offense will run the football. The real question is, can Ridder keep this offense functional enough to support the other pieces in this offense we’re all using draft capital on in 2023? The Falcons were 15th in scoring offense last year, and I think Ridder can keep them at that range or above it this season with the addition o I’m f Bijan Robinson. 

Running Back 

Bijan Robinson, Average Draft Position 8.7, RB4 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The rookie out of the University of Texas made my fantasy “Must Have” series at the running back position. A recent article also came out from Josh Kendall of the Athletic who covers the Falcons and he projected Bijan Robinson for 301 touches (215 carries, 86 targets). Here are some rookie running backs that received over 300 touches and their fantasy finishes. 2021 Najee Harris RB4. 2018 Saquon Barkley RB2. 2017 Leonard Fournette RB8. 2016 Ezekiel Elliott RB2.

Robinson inherits a great run scheme and a great run-blocking offensive line. Robinson is as good a prospect as Saquon Barkley but his situation is a little different. None of those running backs had a 1,000-yard rusher returning into the fold. Tyler Allgeier is a solid back but you don’t spend the 8th overall pick to not feed Bijan Robinson. I think Bijan could start the year on pace for 300 touches, but that number will grow as the season progresses when it’s clear he’s one of the best running backs in football. His floor is high being a young running back in a great system and has overall RB1 upside. He’s my RB2 in fantasy. 

Tyler Allgeier, Average Draft Position 145.0, RB45 (FantasyPros ADP) 

After rushing for 1,035 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry, it really didn’t make sense for the Falcons to draft Bijan Robinson, but they did. Allgeier really is a solid back, but Bijan Robinson is a different level of talent. Still, I can see Tyler Allgeier being solidly involved early on, but losing work as it becomes clear that Bijan is the best player in this offense. I don’t mind drafting Allgeier, and my plan would be to take him and trade him early on in the season when he still has a solid role. He’s my RB42. 

Wide Receiver 

Drake London, Average Draft Position 62.3, WR24 (FantasyPros ADP) 

In fantasy drafts this season, I want to make sure I am getting second year-wide receivers because of the potential breakout we can see. Last year’s second-year breakouts were Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Devonta Smith. Drake London has a solid rookie campaign finishing as the WR36. 

London had an elite 29.4% target share (5th in NFL) and posted a 2.40 yards per route run (11th in NFL). London is a definite breakout candidate who could dominate in the play-action game for Atlanta this season because of how efficient he was last season. He’s my WR23. 

Tight End 

Kyle Pitts, Average Draft Position 63.7, TE7 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The Falcons tight end absolutely burned people last year in fantasy football, including myself. Pitts finished as the TE20 but was drafted as the TE3 in the third/fourth round. For the most part, it wasn’t really Pitt’s fault. Arthur Smith had him playing limited snaps, and blocking, and Marcus Mariota had 26% of his passes deemed uncatchable. Pitts is still incredibly talented but the usage and scheme will be the exact same.

In their last preseason game, Pitts played on 9 of 17 snaps and only ran 5 routes on those 9 snaps. Ridder can possibly be better than Mariota and throw more catchable balls, but London is the pass catcher I would rather take a chance on. However, if you do like Pitts, you’re getting a much better discount this season in round 6 than last season in round 3/4.