When looking at league-winning teams over the past couple of years they usually have one thing in common, at least one if not two breakout wide receivers are part of the squad.
Having someone like Jaylen Waddle or Amon-Ra St. Brown from last year, or Cooper Kupp from the year before on your team as mid-round picks takes your team from a contender to a championship-level squad. If you’re able to find these mid-round breakouts and combine them with your studs from the first couple of rounds, then your team will have a floor/ceiling combo that can’t be beat.
We will be looking at different situations with the breakouts below but all fit into categories where we see big breakouts every year. We have second-year wide receivers ready to take the leap into WR1 territory. We have a wide receiver who switched teams and is hoping to take the next step with his new young ascending QB. Then we have a breakout receiver who has a new Hall of Fame level coach who can hopefully bring out the best in his new weapon. Below are a few names of wide receivers I think can break into the WR1 category this year.
Breakout wide receivers for 2023
1. Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
Last year’s offensive rookie of the year already looked like a breakout after playing at pro bowl levels with Mike White at quarterback. Now the New York Jets have helped him out by bringing in former MVP Aaron Rodgers to lead the passing attack for the J-E-T-S. There will be an obvious boost on the field from the QB upgrade, but I also expect Wilson to mature at a rapid rate this year with Rodgers able to help him develop faster by passing along his wealth of knowledge and expertise.
If you don’t believe the QB upgrade will be too big of a deal, consider this: in games started with Zach Wilson last year Wilson finished as WR51 but in games where Mike White and Joe Flacco played, he finished as WR9.
So, if a mediocre QB upgrade can get Garrett Wilson in the top 10 imagine what a former 4-time MVP can do with his talent. Add to all of this that I expect Wilson to catch more than the 4 touchdowns he had last year as well and the ceiling is the roof for Wilson (shoutout to Michael Jordan).
2. Chris Olave (NO)
Wilson’s college running mate at Ohio State also had a phenomenal rookie season, arguably more impressive than Wilson’s Rookie of the Year campaign. Like Wilson, Chris Olave also gets a new upgrade at QB in veteran Derek Carr. While Carr isn’t a former MVP like Rodgers he is a massive upgrade over the red rocket Andy Dalton as Carr will push the ball downfield more often which is one of the strengths of Olave’s game. Since 2020 Carr has never finished below QB15 in air yards per attempt.
With Carr, New Orleans should pass more often which means more opportunities for Olave. In Andy Dalton’s 14 starts last year he only attempted more than 34 one time, Carr passed this number 9 of his starts. If you extrapolated that average with Dalton at QB over the course of New Orleans’ 17 games, you’d have gotten 459 pass attempts. For context, that’s two more than the Panthers who finished 29th in pass attempts.
Olave is a stud in any advanced metric you can find. He was at least top 15 in target rate, target share, and yards per team pass attempt. He was also 5th in the NFL in all-designed rushes and targets per snap. When you combine Olave’s efficiency with more targets and an upgraded QB it’s not hard to see how Olave takes a Super Mario-esque jump into the top 10 WR ranks.
3. D.J. Moore (CHI)
Another wide receiver breakout with a new QB, this time with a whole new team as well. D.J. Moore slots in as the Bears’ No. 1 wide receiver after he was traded with a package for the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft (showing how much the Bears coveted him).
He will look to help his ascending QB breakout at the same time (shades of Stephon Diggs helping Josh Allen or AJ Brown helping Jalen Hurts), with Justin Fields primed to be the best QB Moore has gotten to catch passes from. Allow me to list Moore’s former QBs: Cam Newton (past his prime), Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, and of course Baker Mayfield. Seeing that list of QBs is as scary as seeing your Mom join TikTok.
The two statistics that Fields will be an upgrade for Moore will be his higher TD rate and his intended air yards per attempt. Moore’s biggest issue over his career thus far has been a lack of touchdowns but with Fields (5.4 TD % in 2022) he will enjoy the highest TD percentage from a QB in his career (previously last year at 3.5% in which Moore set a career-best for TD receptions).
His intended air yards per attempt was at 8.9 yards per place (easily better than any Carolina QB with Moore) which should lead to some very nice long passing plays to Moore. I also expect Fields to improve being in the second year of the same offensive system and improving his accuracy (was PFF’s highest-graded college QB in terms of accuracy). Moore has always had the talent to be a top-10 WR but he will now finally have the QB and team to help get him there.
4. Jerry Jeudy (DEN)
The first year of Russell Wilson in Denver went about as well as Fyre Festival, which makes picking Jerry Jeudy as a breakout a very scary proposition (not to mention his recent injury concerns).
However, enter Sean Payton, former Super Bowl-winning offensive guru head coach who will hopefully be able to get the most out of this Denver offense (he’s certainly getting paid enough to do so, second highest-paid NFL coach behind Bill Belichick).
Jeudy has always had the talent (former national champion at Alabama, former 1st round pick) to be a star in the NFL but a tough combination of injuries and bad QB play has slowed his development.
Near the end of the season last year, we finally saw Jeudy start to reach his full potential. Jeudy was the half-PPR WR3 in the final six games of 2022, showing that when used correctly he can be a force. Tim Patrick is once again out for the season and KJ Hamler is no longer with the team, leaving the target competition to a minimum in Denver. With a full offseason to jell with Russ, and Sean Payton taking over the reins this seems like as good a time as any for Jeudy to finally break out.
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