Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article so please be on the lookout for that in the future. This week’s question of the week came from @CJSik on Twitter (answer at the bottom).
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Ezekiel Elliott, Travis Kelce, or Lamar Jackson.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 6 — Quarterback
Start – Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Matthew Stafford has depreciated as a fantasy prospect in 2020, but in Week 6 he will be presented with a golden opportunity to create a much more bullish outlook.
Stafford and the Lions will travel to Florida where they will play the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are coming into this contest in poor form, starting the season 1-4. Part of this is tied to the Jaguars’ inability to disrupt good quarterbacks, allowing 22.1 FPPG to the position. This plays well into the over-under that Vegas has on this game which is a healthy 54.5 total, with the Lions being favored by 3.5 points.
Stafford has historically aired the ball out and so far through 2020 he has yet to reach 300 passing yards in a single game, that could quickly change in Week 6. In addition, Detroit’s BYE week should have allowed them to fix their offensive struggles enough to become more fantasy relevant on a weekly basis (probably not with their running backs though).
With Stafford coming off of his BYE week he should be available on waivers. He is a great play for single-QB leagues. For two-QB leagues, he is near auto-start territory.
Start – Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
After a stellar Tuesday Night Football performance in Week 5, Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans will play host to the Houston Texans.
With two great quarterbacks in play, Tennessee versus Houston is setting up to be a high scoring affair. Currently, the over-under for this game is set at 55, with Tennessee favored by three. High point totals like this, coupled with tight spreads are part of a formula that can create lots of fantasy points. Tannehill just dismantled the Buffalo Bills and the Texans are not any upgrade in terms of pass defense.
Tannehill is slightly volatile, due to Derrick Henry playing like a man amongst boys, but through 2020 he has always finished as top-24 at his position. The floor should be safe going against Houston, who is giving up 18.4 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Sit – Teddy Bridgwater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater is finally flashing his fantasy consistency in 2020, but in Week 6 it could be his first bust game.
Understanding Bridgewater starts with dissecting his statistics, and through 2020 finding the end zone has been a problem. In the last two weeks he has solved his end zone issue for the most part, but going against the Bears brings major worry. This game is expected to be one of the lower-scoring affairs this week, only getting a 44.5 over-under with Carolina being 2.5-point favorites.
Both of these teams are bottom-half in the league for plays ran per game. In a slow-paced, low over-under game, fantasy points could be tough to come by. Additionally, the Bears defense is second-best at stopping fantasy quarterbacks and has only allowed 12.7 FPPG.
You should avoid Bridgwater in single-QB leagues, whereas in two-QB leagues he should be viewed as a low-end QB2.
Start-Sit Week 6 — Running Back
Start – Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
We know that head coach Mike Zimmer is going to run the ball, its instilled into his DNA. Now that Dalvin Cook is temporarily injured, the Alexander Mattison show is about to begin.
Who else will the Vikings use to run the ball outside of Mattison? The answer is no one and you should be in love with this opportunity because like Dalvin Cook, Mattison will be a workhorse. The fill-in running back looked excellent in his usage against Seattle and Atlanta’s run defense only gets worse. Currently, Atlanta is giving up 20.7 FPPG to running backs, which pairs well with a 55 over-under.
He most certainly could be on your league’s waiver wire and if you need a win this week, he is a must-add. For anyone rostering Mattison, this is an auto-start scenario – especially since he will be on BYE in Week 7 and Cook projects to reclaim his throne in Week 8. Just take Mattison off your bench, place him into your lineup, sit back, and watch the points flow in.
This play is only acceptable if Dalvin Cook misses Week 6 as projected. Cook has not officially been ruled out for Week 6.
Start – David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
The loss of Tarik Cohen has led David Montgomery into a role that can produce consistent fantasy finishes. And going up against the Panthers this week, Montgomery could see a huge fantasy game.
Since Cohen went down with an injury, Montgomery has seen no less than 10 rushing attempts and six targets in each of his last two games. That usage makes for a great RB2 floor. Sprinkle Carolina’s run defense into the pot, and Montgomery will be getting all the touches that he can handle against the third-worst defense for stopping fantasy running backs. This game script also projects well for Montgomery since both teams have slow pace-of-play, with respectable pass defenses.
The door should be open for Montgomery to excel in Week 6. As a Flex, he is an autostart. As your RB2, he is pretty close to being a lock. Fire him up with confidence.
Sit – Mark Ingram (RB, BAL)
If there is one thing that the Eagles do well, it is stuffing the run game. Going against Baltimore, that has to be the focus for the game plan: make Lamar Jackson throw the ball and more opportunities for turnovers can appear.
Through five weeks this Eagles’ defensive line is only allowing 1.17 yards before contact, which is tied for third-best in the NFL according to PFF. No wonder Philly’s run defense is only allowing 17.8 FPPG to the running back position, which sounds much less appetizing when your team has three other rushers not named Ingram. Which segues into this backfield being a complete timeshare. No one knows which back will be featured the most on any given week and it is a shot in the dark at best.
There are much better fantasy outlooks to put your faith in this week. Mark Ingram is still a low-end RB2, but his upside is severely limited and he easily could finish outside of the top-36.
Start-Sit Week 6 — Wide Receiver
Start – Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (WR, BAL)
After finishing 6/77/1 against the Washington Football Team, Marquise Brown will look to build on his success against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Brown’s usage continues to increase and he reached double-digit targets for the first time since Week 2 of the 2019 season. Looking at the matchup, Philly will be heavy underdogs and the Ravens should handle them. However, Philly has been competitive in some of their tougher games (look at Pittsburg last week) and their defense could hold them within striking distance.
The Eagles are giving up 28.3 FPPG to the receiver position, sixth-most in fantasy, but Brown will have to fight through Darius Slay’s coverage. If the Eagles’ run defense holds up, the Ravens could find themselves behind the chains more than they are used to, which would open up Brown’s usage.
He is always a deep-ball threat and this week Brown’s floor will be there as well. Start him as a low-end WR2, who has the upside to finish as a WR1.
Start – Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)
The man who has consistently crushed 2020, when healthy, is none other than Jamison Crowder.
In each week he has played Crowder has amassed double-digit targets. Likewise, Crowder has finished with 100-plus receiving yards as well. Those are WR1 numbers, although Crowder is not a WR1 at this stage of the season, nor does he project to be. His fantasy outlook currently should be viewed as a low-end WR2 in PPR formats.
For his Week 6 game, it projects heavily in Miami’s favor as they enter being 8.5-point favorites, with the game total at 47.5. This game-flow should set up one of two ways: 1. the Jets are behind most of the game and are forced to rely on their passing game or 2. the game is competitive which still should be good for Crowder’s usage. Either way, out of all receivers running 75 or more total routes, Crowder is third-best in terms of fantasy points per route and only trails Adam Thielen and DeAndre Hopkins.
The game-script and usage are there. Crowder’s performance will be indicative of Miami’s defense disrupting the quarterback and the passing lanes to the slot, where Crowder lines up 77-percent of the time. Start him with confidence as a low-end WR2.
Sit – Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Deebo Samuel may be a great player to hold on your bench this week as the 49ers face-off against the Los Angeles Rams.
We’ll start at the quarterback position for the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo has been banged up, even getting pulled mid-game in Week 5 due to aggravating a previous injury. This creates a cloudy outlook for anyone receiving passes in the offense, as we saw in Week 5. Further, the 49ers’ offensive line could have trouble with their pass protections and will have their hands full with Aaron Donald. On paper, the 49ers’ pass protection does not hold up well to the elite play of LA, but with this being a divisional game they are capable of holding back the pass-rush.
For Samuel, if the offensive line is being crushed then it will be hard for the quarterback to get into a rhythm. Additionally because of the pressure, throwing to deeper routes could be a problem as well. In the end, Samuel will likely be facing Jaylen Ramsey the most, which is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL. Ramsey is very physical for a cornerback and Samuel is still progressing into his full game-shape, so this could create a mismatch in favor of LA.
Looking over the game logs for the previous four matchups, George Kittle always seems to smash against the Rams. When Kittle is eating, it is tough for other pass catchers to get fantasy-relevant volume. Samuel is a great stash on your bench this week, so do not drop him, but wait for clearer fantasy outlooks before deploying him.
Start-Sit Week 6 — Tight End
Start – T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Up-and-down is how you could describe T.J. Hockenson’s year through five weeks. With the Jacksonville Jaguars scheduled next, Hockenson has a solid chance in Week 6 to finish as a top-12 tight end for the week.
The Lions facing the Jaguars is not the sexiest match up on the slate, but fantasy points could easily derive from this game. Currently, Vegas is projecting a high-scoring, tight contest and has placed the lines at 54.5 over-under, with Detroit being 3.5-point favorites. The Jaguars have not been the best defense in the league and against the tight end position, they are currently giving up 11.8 FPPG which is sixth-most in the NFL.
While Hockenson has not seen a ton of volume, his usage in the red zone makes him hard to sit this week. Through four contests, Hockenson has received 20-percent of Detroit’s red-zone targets. Further, he has already scored two touchdowns this season, which matches his entire touchdown total from 2019. Safety Josh Jones will likely be tasked with defending Hockenson. Jones currently has given up a 92-catch percentage in coverage according to PFF, meaning Hockenson should find good separation on his routes.
Like most tight ends, he can put up a disappointing week. But Hockenson is in one of the most favorable matchups for a tight end in Week 6. Start him up and project for a TE1 finish.
Start – Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI)
If you need a dart throw at tight end any week, look no further than Jimmy Graham. Through five weeks Graham has not logged more than 60 receiving yards, while his targets hover around five per game. But what makes Graham any every-week flier is that he leads the entire league in red-zone targets at 10. Those 10 red-zone targets are 35.7-percent of all red-zone targets for Chicago receivers. He is also second in the league with targets inside of 10 yards, tallying six total.
This heavy usage in the red zone is crucial for fantasy managers starving for tight end production, especially when you don’t roster George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or Mark Andrews. Start him with the idea he could get you five points, but has the upside to finish as TE1 on the week given his role and match up.
Sit – Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
In four of the first five weeks, Hayden Hurst’s usage has been poor. Turn the page on Hurst in Week 6, as it seems like his limited production will continue.
Sitting Hurst comes from a lot of different metrics. Firstly, he has an extremely low target percentage. Currently, he is receiving 15-percent of his team’s targets, which beats out the likes of Tyler Eifert, Darren Fells, and Kyle Rudolph – in other words, it’s not good for fantasy. Hurst is a guy who goes out and plays a ton of snaps but somehow does not get involved. This correlates to Hurst being the 145th best in terms of fantasy points per play – which is 0.14 – dwelling with the likes of T.Y. Hilton, DeSean Jackson, and Kendrick Bourne.
The quarterback play for Atlanta has been abysmal for the man behind center as well. Matt Ryan finished as a top-seven fantasy quarterback in the first two weeks, but in the last three weeks, he has finished below the top-24 mark each time. Ryan’s issues are going to spill over onto Hurst’s fantasy outlook. Even without Julio Jones in Week 5, Hurst and Ryan still could not find a way to establish a rapport.
Lastly, Minnesota has been a decent defense when matching up against tight ends and have only allowed 7.3 FPPG to the position. The Vikings are usually too busy giving up big plays to the wide receiver position, meaning Calvin Ridley could take over this game, leaving Hurst in the dust.
Twitter QOTW
@CJSik asks, “AJ Brown vs HOU or DeVante Parker vs NYJ (0.5 PPR)?
This one certainly feels like a toss-up and either player could beat the other out. If I have to lean one way, I am going to lean on Brown. I tried to dig up as much as I could in order to come to a strong opinion, but what I found is they are very close to being the same player this week.
The pace-of-play for these games are likely to be similar. Both offensive lines should have little trouble protecting their quarterbacks. When evaluating the cornerbacks that are projected to match up against Parker and Brown, both receivers are in plus matchups that they should win.
So here is where things get separated for me: Brown’s game is expected to be a high-scoring game (53.5 over-under), with a decently tight spread (Tennessee -3). This formula creates fantasy output much better than the Miami line, which is 47.5 over-under with Miami being favored by 9.5 points. The Dolphins are much more likely to blow out their opponent and for receivers, that could suppress fantasy production due to running the clock out. Additionally, Brown’s history versus the Texans is nothing but huge games, while Parker’s performances against the Jets are dwarfed in comparison.
The final nail in the coffin for me to lean Brown this week comes from usage in the red zone. Brown has missed time this year and still beats out Parker’s red zone statistics. Brown has been targeted three times in the red zone compared to Parker, who has only logged one red-zone target. Brown is a clear weapon in the red zone – not that Parker isn’t – but with the size and athleticism of Brown, he is a mismatch for any defender guarding him in the red zone.
