Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article so please be on the lookout for that in the future. This week’s question of the week came from @TheHotCorner7 on Twitter (answer at the bottom).
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Ezekiel Elliott, Travis Kelce, or Lamar Jackson.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 7 — Quarterback
Start – Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
With his best game of 2020 in Week 6, Matt Ryan and the Falcons will play host to the Detroit Lions.
The first thing that sticks out about this game is that it is one of the best games for fantasy production in Week 7. With a 56.5 over-under and a spread of three points favoring the Falcons, it is hard not to love this game. The formula for a shootout is there: high implied point total, close spread, playmaking quarterbacks, lethal offensive weapons, and a lack of defense.
Atlanta is notorious for causing high-scoring affairs when they take the field. Just in 2020, every game that the Falcons have been competitive in (except for the Carolina game) the point totals have been no less than 53 points. Some point totals have been as high as 79 and 63.
Coming off of a four-touchdown performance in Week 6, I am going right back to Matt Ryan in this spot. It seems to be that Ryan’s receiving core is healthy and that really gives him a boost in terms of fantasy production. Detroit is allowing 20.6-FPPG to the quarterback position, and it will be surprising to see Ryan finish with anything less because his receivers should have no issue getting open in coverage.
Both quarterbacks in this matchup are great plays this week. Matt Ryan gets the nod over Stafford, but either one of these guys could finish as the top quarterback for the week.
Start – Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
I am going back to the well here with Joe Burrow against the Browns. Coming off of a bad game in Week 1, Burrow threw for 316 passing yards and three touchdowns (with an unsustainable 61 pass attempts) in Week 2 against the Browns.
Even though he won’t throw the rock 61 times, I believe he will put up big yardage as he leads the NFL with four 300-yard games. Additionally, Burrow’s yards per attempt have risen since the first two games of the season. In Weeks 1-2, he finished with 5.3 yards per attempt and in Weeks 3-6, that average rises to 7.37 per attempt.
By now you should know that the Browns are good at stopping the run, but give up most of their yardage through the air. That is Burrow’s path to fantasy stardom this week. Currently, Cleveland is allowing an average of 20.2-FPPG to the quarterback position. Lastly, the line that Vegas has placed on this game makes for a juicy fantasy forecast. The Browns are 3.5-point favorites, with the projected scoring total set at 50. In fantasy, we like to target high-scoring games with tight spreads because that is a game that could turn into a shootout.
Playing on his home field, Burrow should crack the backend of the Top-12 this week. You should be starting him.
Sit – Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
The revenge narrative will be at the forefront of this game and I am here to tell you, do not buy that narrative.
New Orleans comes into this division rivalry coming off of their BYE week and has won seven of their last nine meetings against the Panthers. Bridgewater has shown that he lacks a huge upside and cannot get you the ceiling-game that managers desire at the quarterback spot. New Orleans is a good defense and it is safe to presume they will be better coming off of their BYE.
Against good defenses this year, Bridgewater has not produced much in terms of fantasy points and has shown that he is turnover prone. In Week 2 against Tampa Bay he committed three turnovers and against the Bears just last week, he threw two additional interceptions. This Week 7 game has a 51 over-under, which would be awesome if it was only last year, but the 7.5-point spread favoring New Orleans shows this game could become too lopsided for Bridgewater to thrive in.
With a 51-point total, he is not a must bench but he should be viewed as a middling QB2.
Start-Sit Week 7 — Running Back
Start – James Conner (RB, PIT)
Fear not, the Tennessee Titans’ defense is nothing to be scared of and it seems like a spot where James Conner can produce.
In a game projected for 50 points but easily could hit the under, Conner could benefit from a slow game-script. It seems that the only way you can beat the Titans is to possess the ball and win the field position battle, which certainly does benefit running backs. Unfortunately, when facing the Titans, their offense can beat you on the ground or through the air. Keeping them off the field is becoming a clear point of advantage against the Titans, and Pittsburg has the defense to accomplish this.
For the fantasy statistics, Tennessee is giving up 20.5-FPPG to the running back position which is 10th worst. Conner is coming into Week 7 with excellent form. Since Week 2, he has scored a touchdown in every game and has finished with double-digit fantasy points. Additionally, he has also amassed 100-plus rushing yards in three of his last four contests. There is no reason to sit Conner this week with those types of numbers, even despite being a road underdog.
Years past taught us that the Titans’ defense is a tough group to run against, but James Conner in Week 7 is a player you should start in all lineups where he is rostered.
Start – Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
This one comes with some risk but Antonio Gibson has the ingredients to cook this week against the Cowboys.
Let’s start with Dallas, who’s defensive line is decimated with injuries and despite that, have played extremely poor in the trenches this year. Furthermore, the linebackers have played bad defense as well. Luckily for that unit they did get Leighton Vander Esch back on the field, which is a slight boost but nothing to write home about. Generally speaking, the player morale in Dallas is extremely poor. All of this is a boost to Gibson however, who is currently one of the leagues’ most elusive backs.
The risk in this play is the fact that Gibson seems to be stuck in a timeshare. Viewing the tape, when the Washington offense struggles to move the ball, Gibson can be taken out. When they are driving, however, or playing with the lead, Gibson seems to be a little more reliable for fantasy. Insert the Cowboys’ defense and you have a matchup that the Washington offense can thrive in.
On paper, Gibson seems to be getting the most valuable touches out of this committee. Since Week 2, he has received nearly all of the rushing attempts inside of the red zone. In addition, Gibson has at least nine rushing attempts per game and we know he is going to be involved in the passing game, which creates a decent Flex-type floor in PPR formats. We have yet to see the breakout game from Gibson but in a game-script featuring the Cowboys’ defense, offensive weapons get a clear boost.
The path to victory for Washington can easily run through Gibson. Start him as a high-end RB3, with RB2 upside. However, he is not a player to jam into your lineups. If he is your Flex or RB2 due to the BYE’s, Gibson will get you great production this week.
Sit – Devonta Freeman (RB, NYG) – Thursday Night Football
This game is likely going to be a gross and slow-paced game. Vegas has labeled this as the lowest over-under on the week at 43. Moreover, the Eagles will come into this game as four-point favorites, and Freeman being a road underdog is not a formula for fantasy success.
The Eagles are good on defense and it seemingly has been the cornerstone of their team. Stopping the run is a big part of what they do as a unit, and that should be an easy task going up against the Giants. Facing fantasy running backs, Philly is allowing 17.1-FPPG to the position. It would take everything going right for Freeman to hit 17.1 fantasy points and to date, he has not eclipsed 16 fantasy points in a single contest.
Even if Freeman does get going, the Eagles can quickly stack the box and force Daniel Jones to throw it and we know that has been a disaster. Since we are bringing up Jones, I also see a multi-turnover game in the works. He fumbles a ton and definitely can throw interceptions. That is not something I want to mix with the Eagles’ 35-percent pressure rate (the percentage of passing snaps in which pressure is generated), 2nd highest in the NFL according to PFF.
The game environment, the match up, and the players around him, make Freeman nearly impossible to count on. Expect a backend RB3 finish.
Start-Sit Week 7 — Wide Receiver
Start – Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
In one of the highest over-unders on the slate, Brandin Cooks is going to be hard to keep on the bench in Week 7.
Vegas has tallied a 56-point over-under, making Houston home underdogs at 3.5 points. This spread, combined with the over-under, creates a perfect formula for an avalanche of fantasy points. Watson and company will have to pass the ball to stay in this game, their running attack is just putrid. Jaire Alexander will likely be shadowing Will Fuller, and to date, that means a high probability for a low fantasy finish. As a result, the ball could be forced to Cooks – a ton.
Cooks’ match up should be exploitable as well. Josh Jackson could be the one covering him, which would be the preferred player, but Kevin King is likely to return from a quad injury. Either way, this is a matchup that Cooks can excel in. The speedy wideout’s past struggles seem predicated around the offense not utilizing him. Since firing Bill O’Brien prior to Week 5, Cooks has received 21 targets over the last two weeks. These 21 targets are the same number of targets that he received in the first four weeks of the NFL season, which clearly indicates a change of usage.
In a game with Vegas predicting 56 points, you should be starting Brandin Cooks. Start him with WR2 expectations, with a chance to finish as a WR1.
Start – Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Rookie Tee Higgins is enjoying first-year success as an NFL player and with the Browns on deck, Higgins is a player you want to start.
In one of my favorite games to target for fantasy points this week, the Browns will travel to play the Bengals. This was a huge fantasy game in Week 2, finishing with a 35-30 Browns’ victory. In that game, quarterback Joe Burrow threw the ball for 300-plus yards and added in three touchdowns. I expect a similar finish in this spot, as he is one of the quarterbacks to start this week due to how well the Browns have stopped the run this year.
Higgins is clearly involved in the passing game as well. The coaches target Higgins and Joe Burrow clearly feels comfortable targeting him. Outside of the Baltimore disaster, Higgins has finished with double-digit fantasy points in each game since Week 3. Fantasy stakeholders have been patiently waiting for any Bengals receiver to breakout and this could be the spot for Higgins. The first-year receiver has a two-touchdown game under his belt already, but the yardage was not there to create a ceiling game.
With a 50-point over-under projected for this contest, the ceiling game could be at the doorstep in Week 7. Higgins is a player you should expect to finish as a high-end WR3, with high-WR2 upside.
Sit – Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Wow, what a poor performance for the Cowboys during Monday’s contest against the Cardinals. Gallup and the Cowboys will try to redeem themselves as they face off against the Washington Football Team in Week 7.
Consistent usage has never been Gallup’s forte, but the deep ball – which is supposed to be his specialty – has yet to show up. And that was with Dak Prescott under center for most of the year. Now Andy-Dandy Dalton is the quarterback and this offense is sputtering. In addition, CeeDee Lamb has taken over as the WR2 in this offense and you could argue he is WR1-B, with Cooper being WR1-A. Nevertheless, Gallup has relegated to being a WR3 in fantasy, at best.
This Washington defensive front has a 27-percent pressure rate and has the sixth-highest sack conversion rate at 18-percent, according to PFF. With the Cowboys’ offensive line banged up, deep routes will have trouble developing downfield due to the pressure (which favors Lamb and not Gallup). Washington is surprisingly good at limiting wide receivers in fantasy and is currently the third-best in the league at doing so, allowing 17.2-FPPG to the position. Dallas will certainly get more than that as a group, even with Dalton, but likely without much of Gallup.
It is a full sit for Gallup in Week 7. The risks far outweigh the rewards and outside of one game, he has practically done little for fantasy. Gallup has gotten to the point where dropping him could be the best option. If he duds again in this spot, he will likely be dropped at a high rate.
Start-Sit Week 7 — Tight End
Start – T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
By now you should know to target games with high projected point totals, especially when they have a tight spread. This week that formula will be tested as the Lions travel to play against the Falcons.
Hockenson continues to have high usage in the red zone, which is fantasy’s most valuable touches. Heading to Atlanta, Hockenson boasts a 28-percent target rate within the red zone. On top of that, he has secured a 20-percent target rate within 10 yards of the end zone. These metrics, combined with the fact that he has scored three times already, means that Hockenson has a good chance of finding the end zone this week.
The biggest worry is Hockenson’s low usage outside of the red zone. But with Atlanta’s defense on the field, that fear may be erased quickly. Atlanta is the wild-west for tight ends and through six weeks, they are the second friendliest defense to the position and have allowed 14.3-FPPG. The matchup for quarterback Matthew Stafford looks to be solid as well and there should not be any worry about him thriving, which obviously helps his receivers.
Hockenson on paper looks to be a touchdown-or-bust player. With the 56.5 over-under on this game, he should have a safe floor but his ceiling is most enticing. Start him with confidence.
Start – Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
With tight ends, match ups are key and this week Hunter Henry looks to be in great position to thrive.
Henry comes into his Week 7 contest against Jacksonville, who gives up the fifth-most fantasy points in the league to the tight end position at 11.2-FPPG. Henry should also see Josh Jones in coverage a lot and Jones loves to take it easy on fantasy tight ends.
In coverage, Jones is giving up a 93-catch percentage according to PFF. Jones also gave up a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson last week (Jones’ second touchdown given up for the year), and quarterbacks have a 152.4 passer rating when throwing at him, according to PFF. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has shown that he can make big plays and a defense like Jacksonville won’t slow him down.
Henry can be relied on this week and has a solid fantasy floor, which is rare for tight ends. Start him up with Top-12 expectations.
Sit – Evan Engram (TE, NYG) – Thursday Night Football
How many times have you lost because you played Evan Engram? Week 7 will be no different for Engram and fantasy managers should place their stake elsewhere.
If you have looked, you probably think that it will be a good matchup for Engram this week and normally you would be right; but we are talking about the Giants here. With a 43-point over-under this game sets up to be the lowest opportunity for scoring points. In addition, Thursday games are notorious for being sloppy and hitting the under. We know teams shrink their playbooks on short weeks and this coaching staff is more than likely not expanding the playbook to get Engram more involved. Thus it will be more of the same.
Going against the Eagles is not something I want to watch the Giants’ offense do. This offense is arguably just as bad as their suite-mate, the New York Jets. We have seen this offense, specifically, Engram, fail in good match-ups with positive game-scripts. This game is a good matchup for Engram, positionally, but the game-script is horrible.
Philadelphia’s defense is the best part of their team. Philly struggles to cover tight ends but when those tight ends are named Evan Engram, you can place them firmly on your bench.
QOTW
Brandon (@TheHotCorner7) asks: With the uncertainty that is now the Chiefs backfield, would you start David Johnson in the Flex this week over CEH to see how things shake up with Bell? Other starting RB’s are Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson.
First, let me just say that I have cried endlessly since this signing. I took CEH in 30-percent of my leagues with the sixth pick (even passed Kamara for him in one. Gross looking back… I know). All this to say: I feel your pain and it is not fun.
For me, I absolutely would start CEH in front of David Johnson. Public perception has been that CEH will still be heavily involved and get most of his touches. Obviously, there will be some slippage to his opportunities (touches + targets), but I still view him as a mid-RB2 with upside – if he could EVER find the end zone again. You also have to think that Bell could be slowly worked into the offense, so this week could still heavily favor CEH because of that.
Looking at Johnson, he looks washed. He is slow to the hole, lacks explosiveness, and looks poor around the goal line. His game-script is what pulls me off of him the most though. They are facing the Packers and they will put up points against this Houston defense. On the other side of the ball, I can see the Packers holding off Houston for a few series and grabbing an early lead where it forces Johnson out of the game script. I see this game being a DeSean Watson game and not one for a running back.
Then you have to take into consideration Johnson’s previous fantasy finishes. He pretty much gets you a solid 10 or 11 points, per week. His best finish is 18 fantasy points, but that was in Week 1. The upside just does not seem to be there, especially in this match up. Even though CEH is now sharing touches, he is on the best offense in the league and his path to 2-plus touchdowns will more than likely be higher than Johnson’s every week.
For those reasons I will stick with CEH, despite Bell lurking.
