Due to time constraints, this week’s column concentrates on just a few matchups rather than the entire slate of NFL games. My apologies to #abacusnation, but I have to drive Robert Kraft to his colonoscopy appointment. With that said, who’s ready to take a deep dive into some matchups?
Packers @ Commanders (+5.5)
Green Bay has either scored or allowed exactly 27 points in their last three games and four times overall. I have no idea what that means, I just thought that was interesting. I had no idea the Pack would lose to the New York Jets, but neither did Jets fans, so pipe down you hooligans! Green Bay now owns a two-game losing streak after allowing both New York teams to score the aforementioned 27 points in consecutive weeks. New York, New York, the city so nice they beat you twice.
I’ve said it before, Aaron Rodgers looks old. His 1,403 passing yards are middle of the pack (pardon the expression) for a starting quarterback, and his 38.4 QBR ranks 24th in the league. The other Aaron (Jones) has a respectable 409 yards from scrimmage this year and a 5.8 yard per carry average, but his lone TD makes him 33rd among running backs in that category. Backup players like Khalil Herbert and Tony Pollard have more scores with fewer carries.
With the oft-injured Carson Wentz off to have finger surgery, backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke looks to right the ship for the 2-4 Commanders. Washington defeated the Bears on Thursday night, but managed only 214 yards of total offense and no touchdowns. Heinicke played 16 games for Washington last year and put up Rodgers ‘22 numbers. Once he gets the offense straightened out, Heinicke should fix the team’s disastrous PR situation. Dan Snyder went full “Alex Jones” mode this week, hinting he had dirt on the NFL. Hey Dan, nothing is filthier than what you keep putting on the field; make like the Jets fans and pipe down.
Washington hasn’t beaten Green Bay since 2018 and they’ve lost four of their last five games. Rodgers shouldn’t lose to Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke in order, and he won’t. But Washington’s skill players did much better last year under Heinicke and Terry McLaurin could see a bump in targets. Green Bay wins but the Commanders do enough to keep it close.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take the Commanders
Buccaneers @ Panthers (+10.5)
A 10-point spread tells you that the Bucs should walk all over the Panthers. But Tom Brady’s recent play makes me wonder if he needs some help getting around. Not to weddings, bar mitzvahs, or the occasional bingo tournament; Brady needs help avoiding the rush and finding the end zone. Things got so bad last week that Brady cornered his offensive linemen and shouted, “You’re so much better than you’re (naughty word) playing!” If the Tampa staff were allowed to speak to Brady, they could’ve hit him with a “Same to you, Mr. Brady sir” or something like that.
Mr. Anderson (Robby) has no trouble getting around these days. Not only did he make it back to the locker room during the game but he found himself on a plane to Arizona the very next day. Carolina took a halftime lead into the locker room on Sunday, but couldn’t hang on against the struggling Rams. P.J. Walker and Jacob Eason did nothing in relief of Baker Mayfield, throwing for 60 and 59 yards respectively.
If Carolina were smart they’d put McCaffrey in bubble wrap. Through the air, he’s all they have. It’s the same on the ground, but he’s much better at catching passes lately. If Carolina was really smart, they’d try to move him for a number-one pick. By the time the team gets a bona fide starting QB, McCaffrey will move like Brady.
Carolina hasn’t won since Week 2 and they won’t win here. The Panthers are in disarray and should already be making draft plans. The Bucs still sit atop the NFC South and unless it interferes with Brady’s mani/pedi appointment, they plan on winning…just not by 11.
Fantasy Abacus says: Panthers keep it in single digits.
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)
I’m a Lamar Jackson fan. I’ve called his game “money” and he’s certainly been “dropping dimes” lately. Unfortunately for the Ravens, those “dimes” have been 10-point leads lost in the last three games. During this span, Jackson has been sacked 5 times and intercepted 4 times. His throws have been as consistent as J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy stats. Baltimore topped Cleveland in 4 of their last 5 meetings, but the Ravens cover the spread like they cover opposing receivers. Only three teams have given up more yards through the air.
Believe it or not, the Cleveland Browns are 3rd in total yards, 5th in points, and 6th in touchdowns this year. With Chubb still leading the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, it’s hard to believe they’re just a 2-4 team. Jacoby Brissett was more doormat than placeholder last week, completing 21 of 45 passes and throwing two picks. With no team above .500 in the AFC North, a win on Sunday would give Cleveland a share of the division lead and Ravens fans a heart attack. Cleveland rarely beats Baltimore, although the Browns did upset the Ravens late last year.
Lamar Jackson has upset lots of fantasy owners in the last three weeks. He’ll make amends and stick a fork in Brissett’s Browns this week.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take the Ravens, Lamar owes me one (or three).
Thanks for reading. I heard the Dallas Cowboys owner went to Brady’s Bingo tournament and won three straight games…another Jerry-Hatrick.
