Welcome to the first edition of our 2018 NFL Playoffs roundtable! I’ll be joined by six of my esteemed 5th Down Fantasy colleagues in providing keys to victory in each of this weekend’s four NFL playoff matchups, and we’ll put our names on the line with game predictions. You can add your voice as well by answering or Twitter polls for each game, which are embedded below.
Starting out Wild Card weekend we have a heated matchup of divisional rivals. Each team features a trademark superstar who’s returned to All Pro form (J.J. Watt, Andrew Luck) and an elite wide receiver (T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins), but only one of these teams can represent the AFC South in the next round.
The Cowboys-Seahawks matchup is an interesting one because it’s a battle of two teams with similar roster blueprints. Each team has an exceptional rushing attack and stout defensive units with a mix of talented veterans and rising stars.
The Chargers and Ravens just played each other in Week 15. Baltimore beat back the Chargers offense in that contest and rookie Lamar Jackson had a solid performance both on the ground and through the air (204 yards/TD).
Finally, the Bears were given a choice in Week 17 on who they would like to face in the first round of the playoffs. They could have sat their starters once the 2nd seed was secured by the Rams, but they opted to put the boots to Kirk Cousins and send Minnesota home early. In doing so they allowed the defending Super Bowl champions into the playoff picture.
Wild Card Weekend Predictions
Saturday
No. 6 Indianapolis at No. 3 Houston, 4:35 p.m. ET
The only inter-divisional game on the docket for Wild Card weekend should be a good one. The much-improved Colts’ offensive line goes head to head against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Houston’s daunting defensive front. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Colts can keep Andrew Luck upright as he looks to exploit the Texans’ secondary with T.Y. Hilton & co. I believe the Texans’ front seven will be too much to handle for Indianapolis in the trenches. Texans 31, Colts 23. — Joe Buttgereit
Divisional playoff games are always a tricky beast. These two teams have met twice this year already, but you almost have to toss those games out and see this matchup for what it is: completely new and unpredictable. The Colts need to do two things to win this game: continue their stellar offensive line play and contain DeAndre Hopkins. If the Colts offensive line can keep Andrew Luck clean against the Texans defensive front, and maybe get a little push in the run game, they should have a good day against this Texans secondary. Somehow corralling Hopkins on the other side should lead to some success on defense as well. Colts 28, Texans 24. — Nate Davis
I look at this matchup and see glaring issues with the Texans that just aren’t present with this Colts team. Houston’s offensive line has been a mess all year, leading to Deshaun Watson being the most sacked QB in the league (62 sacks). The bottom line on Houston is that they have to win the battle upfront on both sides of the ball. If they can keep Watson upright for most of the day and find a way to put pressure on Luck, they’ll set themselves up for success. But the biggest disparity between the two teams is at the quarterback position, where Luck is enjoying the comforts of the pocket for the first time in his career. He’s only been sacked 18 times this year (down from 41 in 2016) thanks to a strong run game behind him with Marlon Mack, and the efforts of Nelson and the rest of Indy’s underrated offensive line. On the year the two teams matched up evenly, splitting the season series with both games coming down to a field goal (37-34 in Week 4, 24-21 in Week 14). I believe this match-up will have similar results, with the game coming down to the wire, but I have to go with the more complete team in this one. Colts 33, Texans 30. — Derek McCauley
Cast your mind back to Week 3 of the season. The Texans were 0-3 and Deshaun Watson had just come back from last year’s season-ending injury, it wasn’t looking good. Last weekend they became AFC champs. What a turnaround it has been and heading into the first round of the playoffs and they have momentum on their side. The Colts’ rookies took a few games to settle in, but my goodness are they making an impact now. The O-line can control the Texans defensive front and with Andrew Luck being back to his amazing self I feel they will do enough. Colts to win. — Colin McDonnell
These rivals have squared off twice this season, the visitor winning by a field goal each time and I fully expect a similar result again on Saturday. Andrew Luck was ridiculous in each of the first two games, throwing for a total of 863 yards and 6 touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton had 314 of those yards but I think the emergence of secondary receivers Dontrelle Inman and Chester Rogers could be the difference in the upcoming game. In the last two games the duo has combined to make 19 catches for 209 yards and three touchdowns. Luck will put up big numbers again to lead the Colts to victory. Colts 27, Texans 24. — Joshua Mutters
Here’s a stat for you: Indianapolis has allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this season (18), while Houston has allowed the most (62). Due in large part to that solid pass protection, Andrew Luck was able to put up 6 TDs and over 800 passing yards in two games against the Texans’ secondary this season. I’m expecting another high scoring game here in which Deshaun Watson just can’t keep up due to poor protection and a depleted corps of pass catchers. Colts 31, Texans 24. — Paul Patterson
I’m usually the guy who thinks the AFC South is about as much fun as sitting in 405 Los Angeles traffic, but these are two of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Texans closed the year winning 11 of their last 13, and the Colts rattled off wins in nine of their last 10. The biggest key for me will be Houston’s commitment to the running game against Indy’s third-ranked, run-stuffing defense. On the year, the Texans offense ranks eighth in rushing. However, over the past four weeks Bill O’Brien’s unit has averaged only 83 yard per game, including a measly 89 yards in a Week 13 home loss to these Colts. The Texans don’t need to dominate the trenches, they simply need to establish some semblance of a rushing attack in order to set up their passing game. DeAndre Hopkins has my vote as the hands down best wide receiver in the game. I think we get a more traditional blow-up game from “Nuk”, one that more closely resembles his 10 grabs, 169 yards, and a score against the Colts in Week 4. Texans 30, Colts 24. — Rob Searles
5 of our 7 experts think the @Colts will beat the @HoustonTexans. Who do you have?
— 5th Down Fantasy (@5thDownFantasy) January 4, 2019
No. 5 Seattle at No. 4 Dallas, 8:15 p.m. ET
Power run game versus power run game; old-school smash-mouth football at its finest. Seattle’s defense isn’t the Legion of Boom of yesteryear, but they’ve certainly improved throughout the course of the year. This game is going to come down to which team can get more out of the passing game. Both defenses will come in looking to shut down the opposition’s rushing attack. I put my faith in the postseason experience of Russell Wilson to make just enough plays to get the Seahawks through to the Divisional Round. Seahawks 24, Cowboys 20. — Joe Buttgereit
No two teams in the playoffs have styles of play that mirror each other as closely as the Seahawks and Cowboys. Both teams rely on strong running games and stingy defenses to get their wins. The main difference between the two is the level of clutch playmaking skill at the quarterback position. Who do you trust more: Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott? My money’s on Wilson, although Dak has shown some flashes to rival his Seahawks counterpart. Both teams need to establish the run early and attempt to stop the other team’s RB1. The Cowboys have the edge here, both by having the superior RB1 in Ezekiel Elliot and by having superior linebacker play in Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. That being said, I trust Pete Carroll and the Seahawks coaching staff way more than Jason Garrett and the Cowboys. Seahawks 21, Cowboys 17. — Nate Davis
The Cowboys come into this game winners of 7 of their last 8 games and boasting, arguably, the most impressive young defensive tandem in the league (Leighton Vander-Esch and Jaylon Smith). They also have the league’s rushing champion in the backfield in Ezekiel Elliott. The game plan for Dallas will be simple: feed Elliott the ball and use their 5th ranked run defense to force Seattle to deviate from their usual game plan. On the flip side, Seattle comes into this matchup on a hot streak of their own. After being left for dead following a Week 10 loss to the Rams, Seattle rallied to win 6 of their last 7 contests. The Seahawks morphed into a completely different team down the stretch. The reason behind that metamorphosis was three-fold: Russell Wilson played himself into late season MVP contention, Chris Carson quietly became the 5th best rusher in the league and their defense started to round into form. Ultimately, in a battle of two teams this similar, I believe that the veteran experience and coaching advantage that Seattle has will tip the scales in their favor, even on the road. Seahawks 24, Cowboys 20. — Derek McCauley
With changes in personnel and philosophy it wasn’t considered likely that the Seahawks would even be in the playoffs, but Russell Wilson is simply world-class and the young players on defense have settled in well. The Cowboys’ young and underrated defense is the key to their recent success after starting 3-5. Dak Prescott gets home field advantage in this round, which will kick-start the Cowboys postseason campaign against the Seahawks. Cowboys to win. — Colin McDonnell
The Seahawks and Cowboys are very similar teams. They both want to establish their running game, and both have talented linebackers that are adept at stopping the run. When playoff teams match up like this it often comes down to coaching calls and the quarterback making game changing plays in the big moments. Simply put, I trust Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll more than I trust Dak Prescott and Jason Garrett. Wilson will make more plays to extend drives than Prescott, eventually giving the Seahawks the edge in this one. Seahawks 27, Cowboys 20. — Joshua Mutters
Zeke Elliott and Chris Carson should combine for 40+ attempts in this game, which will mean long drives and lots of running clock. With the possessions likely to be few and far between, capping off drives with touchdowns will be the key to a victory. I’m giving Seattle the edge because they’re top-10 in red zone TD percentage — Dallas is 29th — and because Russell Wilson is far and away a superior QB. Seahawks 21, Cowboys 20. — Paul Patterson
Another game where each team’s rushing attack will reign supreme, as the Seahawks lead the NFL by averaging 160 rushing yards per game. Something will have to give; the Cowboys defensive home splits are some of the best in the league. Visiting teams are averaging only 70.4 rushing yards per game when they step foot in Jerry’s World. Remember how dominant the Cowboys’ front looked against the vaunted New Orleans rushing attack on that Thursday night in Week 13? Dallas held the Saints to 65 yards on the ground, while only surrendering 111 through the air. I’m expecting a similar stout defensive performance out of the ‘Boys, with Zeke Elliot handling his usual heavy workload. Don’t forget your bib, Cowboys fans. Zeke and the crew will be eating plenty on Saturday night. Cowboys 24, Seahawks 10. — Rob Searles
5 of our 7 experts think the @Seahawks will beat the @dallascowboys. And you?
— 5th Down Fantasy (@5thDownFantasy) January 4, 2019
Sunday
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Baltimore, 1:05 p.m. ET
This game, for me, is the most riveting matchup on paper this weekend. A rematch of an excellent, hard-fought battle between the two just a few weeks ago. The Chargers have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL; while the Ravens have found a way to pull a page from their own book in 2000 with a strong running game and a smothering defense. As it does in most cases, the smothering defense will prevail. Baltimore will repeat their performance from Week 16 when they shut down the Chargers, holding them to just 198 total yards. Ravens 20, Chargers 17. — Joe Buttgereit
The Ravens absolutely had their way with this Chargers team in their last meeting. The key to success here for the Ravens is exactly what they did last time: Present a suffocating defense that gets to Philip Rivers early and often, particularly with a mix of disguised fronts to confound the veteran signal caller. On offense, if the Ravens can push around the Chargers defensive front and keep their ground game rolling, they’ll be difficult to bring down. If the Chargers can somehow shutdown Lamar Jackson, Kenneth Dixon and Gus Edwards, and make Jackson beat them with his arm, they have a chance. But good luck with that. Ravens 24, Chargers 17. — Nate Davis
This one is all going to come down to how Anthony Lynn and Philip Rivers choose to attack the Baltimore defense. This is a unit that no one in the AFC playoff picture wants to line up against and it held Rivers without a touchdown and the Chargers to just 10 points total in their last meeting. Los Angeles has a full war chest of weapons to throw at Baltimore with Melvin Gordon in the backfield, Keenan Allen on the mend and Mike Williams quickly rising through the ranks, they just need to figure out the Pandora’s box that is the Ravens defense. On the flip side, Baltimore just needs to play their style of football. They’re at home, they know they can beat the Chargers, and they have a recent blueprint of how to do it. Ravens 26, Chargers 16. — Derek McCauley
I really feel that the Chargers will make the Super Bowl. There, I said it! The vet Philip Rivers is playing out of his mind, though LA faces a defense that is beastly. But I do not feel that Lamar Jackson has enough to take them past the Chargers. Chargers to win. — Colin McDonnell
The Ravens defense absolutely dominated the Chargers offense just two weeks ago, yet before the Antonio Gates fumble Philip Rivers was leading the Chargers inside Ravens territory for what could have been a game winning touchdown. I do not expect the L.A. offense to play that poorly again, but I do expect another close game. The Chargers have played well on the road this season, winning in notoriously difficult environments against teams such as the Steelers, Chiefs, and Seahawks. The potential return of Hunter Henry in addition to the availability of Austin Ekeler, who missed the week 16 matchup, should help alleviate some pressure from the Baltimore pass rush. Both players are very good protectors as well as outlets for Rivers when the pressure comes. The Chargers will keep Rivers standing and limit their turnovers to one or less, resulting in a win. Chargers 24, Ravens 20. — Joshua Mutters
The Ravens beat the Chargers a few weeks back, but, if you saw the game, you’d know that it was chock full of turnovers and fluke plays — seriously, Mark Andrews caught a 69-yard touchdown and Lamar Jackson threw for more yards than Philip Rivers. This time around, the Chargers will be ready. The offense will remember that Melvin Gordon exists (he had just 12 rushes against the Ravens in their first meeting), Rivers will avoid making big mistakes, and the defense will just do what they did last time when they limited Jackson to his lowest rushing output (39 yds) and YPC (3.00) of the season. Chargers 23, Ravens 21. — Paul Patterson
Like the Colts and Texans, the Ravens are playing their best football at the right time, closing the year with wins in six of their last seven. John Harbaugh and especially offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg are doing wonders with their development of Lamar Jackson after they gave the rookie the keys to the franchise following their Week 10 bye. Mornhinweg doesn’t get enough national praise. This guy, along with Andy Reid, groomed Michael Vick to play the best football of his career when he was forced into action during the 2010 season in Philadelphia. Jackson still leaves a lot to be desired as an NFL passer, but the Ravens are simply running teams into the ground up front. Since Jackson took over as the starter in Week 11, Baltimore is averaging 229.6 rushing yards per game, head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL over that span. In a league that is pivoting to lighting up scoreboards like a pinball machine, the Ravens are a traditional old school bunch that will play ball control and punch opposing teams in the mouth defensively. Ravens dominate the Chargers for the second time in three weeks. Ravens 28, Chargers 13. — Rob Searles
4 of our 7 experts have the Ravens knocking out the Chargers this weekend. Who you think will win?
— 5th Down Fantasy (@5thDownFantasy) January 4, 2019
No. 6 Philadelphia at No. 3 Chicago, 4:40 p.m. ET
Can Nick Foles recreate the magic from his historical run to Super Bowl MVP a year ago? I don’t think so. He ignited the city of Philadelphia again as he took over for the injured Carson Wentz and led the Eagles back to the playoffs. However, I believe that run will end Sunday. Heading to Chicago to take on one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses will be a tall task, even for the 6’6” Foles. The Bears defense will take control of this game making it very difficult on the Eagles to move the ball. Mitch Trubisky, while making his postseason debut, will provide enough for Chicago’s offense to send the reigning champs home early this postseason. Bears 27, Eagles 17. — Joe Buttgereit
I don’t think there’s a single team in the NFC that is comfortable facing Nick Foles in January at this point. That being said, if there’s one team that won’t be intimidated by Foles-magic, it’s the Bears. For the Bears to win here, they need to do what they’ve done all year: throttle the opposing offensive game plan into submission and mix in enough explosive plays on offense to keep the opposing defense on their heels. For the Eagles, they’ll need to figure out a way to keep Foles out of Khalil Mack’s crosshairs. Not an easy task, considering the subpar pass-blocking we’ve seen from the Eagles offensive line this year. Bears 31, Eagles 21. — Nate Davis
The narratives for this game all write themselves. The Foles story is a national gold mine that will only pick up steam the further this Eagles team goes, but the other storyline worth monitoring is Mitch Trubisky’s first playoff game in the NFL. Chicago comes into this matchup looking every bit as ferocious as a real-life grizzly bear. Their defense ranks in the top 5 against the run, pass and overall points per game, and they’ve been at their best when playing at home (7-1). The lone weakness in their near impenetrable armor is the unknown quantity of a 2nd year QB playing in his first national playoff game. How Trubisky fares in this contest will shape the narrative around him nationally for years to come, how he handles a game of this magnitude will speak volumes about his future as a player. On the other side you have a team that was dead by almost every metric just a month ago but has now risen from the ashes and rattled off three straight unthinkable victories in a row. I’m picking the Eagles to upset the Bears in Chicago because the Bears made a mistake choosing Philly over Minnesota. Minnesota’s offensive line was lackluster at best all year long and because of that Chicago was able to feast on Kirk Cousins and blitz whenever they wanted. The matchup against Philly poses a far greater challenge in the trenches with three All Pro level linemen in Lane Johnson/Brandon Brooks/Jason Kelce able to work to contain the dual rush of Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack. The Eagles have had their backs against the wall for the past month straight, they were counted out, and they made it to the playoffs anyway by doing the unthinkable. Eagles 23, Bears 17. — Derek McCauley
The Bears have enough offense to put up points against the Eagles, but it’s their relentless defense that makes me favor them this week. With Nick Foles under center, anything is possible (the Philly Philly call from last year was one of my most memorable plays in any Super Bowl contest). But the Eagles’ banged up defense will ultimately be their downfall. Bears to win. — Colin McDonnell
Here we are again. Nick Foles is leading a hot Eagles team into the playoffs and others should look out, right? It just doesn’t feel the same to me. The Eagles do not have much of a running game to speak of and this Bears front seven is legit. They have allowed a league low 80 rushing yards per game while also logging 50 sacks on the season. Foles has thrown an interception in each of his last three starts and has also fumbled in each of his last two. The Bears will stymie the run, making the Eagles even more one dimensional than usual. This will allow Khalil Mack and company to pressure Foles and win the turnover battle and ultimately the game. Bears 24, Eagles 17. — Joshua Mutters
Call me a homer, but I think Philadelphia wins this game. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles are getting hot at just the right time. They’ve been here before, and they know what it takes to win in January. Meanwhile, Mitchell Trubisky and most of the Bears’ roster are getting their first taste of postseason action. The key here will be Philly’s defensive line. Can Fletcher Cox and co. make Trubisky feel the pressure? Can they keep him from getting outside the pocket and scrambling for first downs? Eagles 20, Bears 17. — Paul Patterson
Beginning to sense a theme yet? Another home team with a league-leading defense playing on Wild Card Weekend. Just like the Cowboys at home, the Bears suffocate opposing rushing attacks in Soldier Field, holding teams to 67.1 average rushing yards. This Bears defense has really hit their stride, closing out the regular season with four straight victories. Since Week 14, when the Windy City gets a little windier, Bears’ opponents are averaging only 182.5 passing yards per game with an average quarterback rating of 56.8. Sound familiar, Jared Goff? This Bears’ defense is special. While I fully expect the Bears’ defense to be in control throughout, I often find myself thinking about what kind of conundrum the Eagles will be in if Nick Foles pulls out another playoff victory or two. I understand Carson Wentz is the future, the number two overall pick, blah blah blah. But how on Earth do you keep the guy who wins you a Super Bowl and leads you to the postseason off the field? No worries, Eagles fans, the Bears will make that decision a little easier for you on Sunday evening. Die Eagles Die. Bears 20, Eagles 14 — Rob Searles.
5 of our 7 experts are picking the @ChicagoBears to end the @Eagles late-season surge. What do you think?
— 5th Down Fantasy (@5thDownFantasy) January 4, 2019
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