“A contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What’s required is thinking rather than polling.” – Warren Buffett.
This weekend is a prime example of when thinking outside the box will be necessary for success. You know about Netflix, but what do you know about Netflix? Here are some stats to digest before we get into this.
– Netflix content spending for 2022 is estimated at 17 billion. (Statista)
– 9 out of the 10 most popular original series are Netflix-produced. (Nielsen)
– Netflix had 221.64 million paid subscribers in the first quarter of 2022. (Statista)
– In 2021, the platform’s revenue reached roughly $30 billion. (Statista)
– In the third quarter of 2021, Netflix produced 129 original titles. (Statista)
– About 82% of online streaming subscribers consider Netflix more entertaining than cable TV. (Statista)
– Most of the Netflix subscribers worldwide come from the US (65.3 million). (Finances Online)
Mind-blowing. Let’s review the thought process that birthed this powerhouse company. The concept was designed from one idea that was proven to work. People will pay money to watch movies. You have three options to watch a film: go to the theatre, buy, or rent. The brilliance of the idea initially was not to attack theatres. Creating your own theatre chain is a difficult task. The theme of theatres is simple yet effective. You buy popcorn, snacks, and drinks and then enjoy the show.
Getting into the market of selling movies is challenging as well. Major stores already dominate sales by purchasing in bulk and selling at the best price. Blockbuster locked up the third and final option. A process that made sense and has worked extraordinarily well since 1985. The process of renting was the contrarian thought process that changed the world. What if you bring the rentals to the customer instead of them going to get them themselves? Whoa! Total game changer.
Finding your Netflix on the weekend with many apparent plays will be crucial. Dameon Pierce RB, HOU $6,300, currently has a 33% ownership projection, and rightfully so. He averages 18.5 touches per game, and everything feels good about this play for this price.
To get four times his value, Pierce needs to get around 25 fantasy points. That’s a 58.10% increase from his protections. Can the Giants, who rank 8th best in fantasy points against, shut down the run and force Mills to throw the ball? Pierce only has 3 TDs on the season.
What if you pivot to Brandin Cooks WR, HOU $5,300, and his welcoming price tag? His ceiling is well known, and he is the target monster of this team when he plays. If Cooks hits and Pierce falls in value, you also save on the salary, allowing more strength elsewhere in your construction. These are the literal definition of million-dollar ideas.
Let us review last week’s picks:
Last Week’s DraftKings Picks:
1) Geno Smith QB, SEA $5,800 – Finished the day with 21.80 fantasy points and only 7.5% ownership. The price point and results were fantastic.
2) Cordarrelle Patterson RB, ATL $5,800 – We love Cordarrelle Patterson. 18.30 fantasy points and 10.95% ownership. Bargain bin winner.
3) Justin Jefferson WR, MIN $8,600 – 4th best WR pick of the day. 28.50 fantasy points and an excellent 13.84% ownership for a stud.
4) Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, CAR $3,900 – Only 5.18% of players knabbed this diamond in the rough. Sub $4k with 14.30 fantasy points giving 3.6 times his value.
5) Robert Tonyan TE, GB $3,800 – 5.9 is what I wish his ownership was, and 12.67% was the number value in fantasy points.
6) Buccaneers DST, TB $3,000 – The points were average with 8, but the value wasn’t there from the pay up, and ownership was at 14.72%.
Week 10 DraftKings picks
1) Jacoby Brissett QB, CLE $5,400
The Dolphins allow more points to QBs than anybody else. Implied totals for this game are Dolphins 26.5 and Browns 23. Not only is this split pretty even, but it also implies multiple touchdowns for the Browns.
From here, you can also build out other cheaper options on the stack and allow for a Hill or Waddle bring back. TE David Njoku is out, and the next man-up is an exciting TE play this weekend. Harrison Bryant is only $2,700; you could stack that with RB Kareem Hunt for $5,300. Hunt only has nine fewer attempts inside the 20 and a pass-catching stat line of 4 REC /14 Yards/ 1 TD, while Nick Chubb has 0/0/0.
Brissett possesses two decent WR plays this week as well. Everything about this game feels like you can get compelling pieces cheap.
2) Jonathan Taylor RB, IND $7,500
You will not see him at this price for the rest of the season. New head coach Jeff Saturday will build off working with a premier o-line and try to establish the run game. This will open opportunities for QB Ehlinger to try and get his career started. Taylor’s backups are either injured or traded away. JT can easily have 25+ touches in a prime position to run wild against a Raiders defense, allowing 27.59 fantasy points per game.
3) Allen Lazard WR, GB $6,100
I was on this play initially at the start of the week, then moved away. I feel that has been the consensus for the week, and based on the Packers’ recent performance, there is not a lot to get excited about here.
Doubs and Cobb are out this game, which is excellent news for Lazard as he ranks 6th for fantasy points in the red zone for WRs. He averages 61 yards per game and an average target distance of 13.13 yards. Two extra catches in this game could put him around 90 yards, and he’s already an endzone force.
4) Courtland Sutton WR, DEN $5,600
Denver is in a tough spot this week. Low-scoring totals, facing a defense that is going to be highly owned, and a large number of targets to try and guess in this one. “No question about it, I am ready to get hurt again.” – Michael Scott. Judy and Delcich will command a majority of the ownership in this game.
The Titans get beat through the air; they are 3rd worst at stopping WRs. Sutton has a 92.8% snap share, and Jeudy has 74.3%. Sutton is targeted more in the red zone and end zone. Sutton also possesses a deeper target distance as well.
5) Mike Gesicki TE, MIA $3,500
Do not be afraid to pivot into this pick. Gesicki, in the last three weeks, has only eight fewer targets than Waddle. He has the 4th most TE points inside the red zone. This week, the field of play in the $3,000 range for TE is one of the highest ownership percentages I have ever seen. If I punt, I will do so with a red-hot Miami offense.
6) Steelers DST, PIT $2,800
RB Alvin Kamara will be highly owned. Why not blow the slate up with the return of T.J. Watt and stuff this sputtering Saints offense?
The Steelers have remained in the middle of the pack by stopping the run. Where they have been getting beat is by WRs. Watt should add the pressure needed to make passing uncomfortable. If the Steelers can get ahead and force the Saints to throw, mistakes will be made by Andy ‘The Red Rifle’ Dalton.
