“Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative.” – Oscar Wilde.
Mr. Wilde has never played fantasy football. Unfortunately, the weather is one of the most significant determining factors to the outcome of a game, almost so much as your franchise QB missing a game. This is the time of year when snow, heat, and rain determine player selections. Bills fans showed up to ensure their players were shoveled out so they could make the flight to Detroit. The line for that game was taking a nose dive but then pulled up like Maverick making the coffin corner. Look for any edges you can, is the game in a dome, heat, wind, or snow? Watch the weather reports and use them to your advantage for late swaps.
Last Week’s DraftKings Picks:
1) Jacoby Brissett QB, CLE $5,400 – 5.53% ownership and 16.48 fantasy points. As discussed last week, this was to pivot off Tua (who only had 23.40 fantasy points at the cost of $6,700 and 14.10% ownership).
2) Jonathan Taylor RB, IND $7,500 – The number one RB of the week. I loved everything about this play, and it smashed for 27.30 fantasy points and 9.63% ownership.
3) Allen Lazard WR, GB $6,100 – I can’t pick number one for everything. Lazard, the lizard, slipped in only 7.50 fantasy points for 5.99% of us.
4) Courtland Sutton WR, DEN $5,600 – Low ownership of 4.58% was excellent, but the points were average at 12.60. The Broncos can’t stay this inefficient all season, right?
5) Mike Gesicki TE, MIA $3,500 – 3.25% of players were stuck with his 5.10 fantasy points. This was a pivot play to get away from the WRs, but the RBs cannibalized all the points.
6) Steelers DST, PIT $2,800 – 10 fantasy points from a cheap DST and was under 10% ownership. We need to keep finding these base picks every week to pay out on cash games.
Week 11 DraftKings picks
1) Josh Allen QB, BUF $8,500 – Nothing needs to be written. Allen is the safest pick week after week. What makes him an exceptional play this week is the value plays at RB and WR. You can stack Diggs and Davis while still finding excellent selections sub $5,500 and inexpensive DSTs with high upsides.
2) Brian Robinson Jr. RB, WAS $5,300 – Antonio Gibson will take the majority of ownership this week, and that’s because they are facing the Texans. Nobody gives up more points than the dollar store Cowboys. Robinson has a nonexistent role in pass-catching games but has been almost identical in statistical data inside the red zone, with four fewer games. The Commanders are giving Robinson more rushing attempts, and this game should not be a Texan blowout allowing Robinson to remain a player in all four quarters.
3) Darnell Mooney WR, CHI $5,400 – Contrarian pivot play here. Justin Fields and David Montgomery will hold excessive ownership levels today. Inside the red zone, Montgomery was never fed the rock; it was Herbert. Atlanta might be the 10th worst run-stopping defense, but they are dead last against the pass. I do not see the Bears DST holding the Falcons to a low-scoring game. There will be a need to pass, and I like Fields’ number one option for the price tag.
4) Garrett Wilson WR, NYJ $4,900 – 6-7-115 for no TDs the last time they played the Patriots. I like the opportunity here with 2 RBs getting worked in and Corey Davis sitting out. Wilson is the target king in NY, which won’t change this game. For this price, a guy who averages 7.6 targets per game is too juicy to ignore. The Pats D will be a challenge, but Wilson already dismantled that.
5) Tanner Hudson TE, NYG $2,900 – I’ll give you a minute to google him. Now that you know he is a TE for the Giants know this. He has been targeted 5 and 3 times in his last two games. That ties him for the most targeted player for the G-Men. Coincidently they are playing a Lions D that I am convinced thinks TEs block and don’t catch passes because they don’t stop anyone. Robinson is dealing with a hamstring injury, and Bellinger still isn’t back.
6) Rams DST, LAR $2,900 – I’ve realized I really like picking on the Saints. The price for the quality of this D is criminally low in this matchup. The Rams are without their stud WR Kupp and will be looking to play keep away. The Rams pressure, and Dalton is a mistake away from a pick-six on any given play. The Rams D have the 2nd least amount of 1st downs against them, meaning when they get on the field, they quickly get off the field. They are the 2nd least penalized defense in the league and 2nd against red zone scoring plays. The record might not reflect it, but this defense is legit.
