Week 13 Picks: Revenge Week
The abacus went 3-0 against the spread last week. Take that!
Browns @ Texans (+7)
“Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.” – Oscar Wilde
That pretty much sums up Deshaun Watson. After holding the Houston Texans hostage for nearly two years, Watson is back to throwing passes in NRG Stadium. This time for the Cleveland Browns.
The Texans would like nothing more than to get revenge on their former quarterback. Unfortunately, Houston is little more than Dameon Pierce and some extra draft picks these days.
Pierce only managed eight rushing yards in each of his last two games, both losses. If Houston wants to teach its former quarterback a lesson, Pierce needs to remember how to run. Otherwise, we have to spell Dare Ogunbowale. I double dare you to spell that twice.
Watson probably wants revenge on the Texans. There are hard feelings on his end as well. Watson led the league in passing back in 2020. He had 4,823 yards but ownership decided to tear the team down and rebuild. How’s that going so far?
Browns fans are happy to get Watson on the field and with his off-field issues, who can blame them? Watson should be happy to hand the ball to Nick Chubb all day.
Cleveland trails only Philadelphia in rushing touchdowns this year. Only Green Bay has allowed more rushing yards than Houston. Nine teams have beaten the Texans silly so far. Cleveland will be next. Karma may come calling for Watson someday, but it won’t be against the Texans.
Fantasy Abacus says: Sometimes the bad guys win…and cover.
Titans @ Eagles (-4.5)
“Revenge is a dish best served cold.” – My wife before every meal
Partly cloudy and 44 degrees will have to do for A.J. Brown on Sunday when the 10-1 Eagles host the 7-4 Tennessee Titans. Brown used to play for the Titans. He was expecting lots of cold-hard cash from them at the end of his rookie deal.
Instead, Tennessee turned a cold shoulder and sent him to Philly for a first-round pick. Brown started 2022 on fire but has cooled off lately. He hasn’t had more than 60 yards since late October and he’s lost a fumble in each of his last two games.
Jaylen Hurts has been hot, at least when he’s running the ball. Hurts set a franchise record by running for 157 against the Packers. He’ll likely put the rushing on ice and target Brown against his old team.
The Titans are coming off a four-point loss to Cincinnati. Derrick Henry ran for only 38 yards but had 79 yards receiving. Henry has 23 more rushing attempts than any other back in the NFL. He’ll have plenty more against an Eagles defense giving up 4.9 yards per rush.
Keep an eye on Treylon Burks. He’s warming up after a slow start. He’s had some big catches and 181 yards in his last two games. If Brown goes off, Burks will want to keep pace.
Fantasy abacus says: Tennessee’s stingy pass defense keeps it close
Dolphins @ 49ers (-3.5)
“Living well is the best revenge.” – George Herbert
Who’s living their best life? Is it the 8-3 Dolphins sitting atop the AFC East with a five-game win streak? Maybe it’s the 49ers leading the NFC West with a four-game win streak? It’s too close to call, Sunday’s game should tell us a lot.
You have to wonder what Mike McDaniel is telling his defense this week. McDaniel spent 14 years working with Kyle Shanahan on five different teams. He was the Niners O.C. last year. If anyone knows Shanahan’s secret sauce, it’s McDaniel.
Miami’s team has a San Francisco feel to them this year. Their backfield is filled with former Niners like Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert Tyreek Hill is putting up Deebo Samuel numbers from a year ago and their quarterback is playing above expectations.
San Francisco’s offense hasn’t struggled without McDaniel. The Niners average 5.9 yards per play and have almost 4,00 total yards of total offense. Their run game could be in trouble this week. To the surprise of no one, Christian McCaffrey is nursing an injury and Eli Mitchell is on the IR.
Don’t be surprised to see Deebo Samuel get a bunch of carries, especially if McCaffrey is limited. Tevin Coleman could even make an appearance in this one. He had 21 fantasy points against the Panthers in Week 5 but remains on the practice squad for now.
The Dolphins win 87% of their games following a win. The 49ers have won 80% of their home games. Football fans have a 100% chance of seeing a good game on Sunday night.
Fantasy Abacus says: Take Miami.
Enjoy the games, everyone. I’m sorry for making fun of my wife’s cooking earlier. My wife’s cooking is fit for a king. Here King! Here King!
