Week 18 Picks: Hunka Hunka Burnin’ Picks Edition
Week 18 concludes with two games on January 7th, and the rest on January 8th, which we all know is Elvis Presley’s birthday. Some games are meaningless and will soon be forgotten, like Texans @ Colts, but some mean everything and are Always on my Mind, like Giants @ Eagles.
So before we go our Separate Ways, let’s have a look at three games. Anything more would be Too Much.
Giants @ Eagles (-14)
It’s Now or Never for the Eagles this week. Philadelphia would’ve been the NFC’s top seed with a win against Dallas or New Orleans. But the Eagles have been stuck in Heartbreak Hotel since Jalen Hurts went down with a shoulder injury. Gardner Minshew hasn’t exactly been a Good Luck Charm in two starts.
The Giants beat the Vikings last week and are locked into the sixth seed for the playoffs. At first, Coach Brian Daboll vowed to play his starters. Then he stopped thinking like a Hard Headed Woman and softened his stance, moving the spread from 5 to 14 points.
Philadelphia is 1-3 against spreads of seven or more points. The banged-up Eagles need this game badly to rest their players with a bye week, and New York has nothing to play for, except revenge.
The Giants don’t exactly have Burning Love for the Eagles. Philly forced New York to miss the 2021 playoffs by resting their starters in the season finale. New York would love to settle the score, but not at the expense of injury. Philadelphia will score, especially if Hurts plays, but not enough to cover 14 points.
Fantasy Abacus says: Eagles win, Giants cover
Titans @ Jacksonville (-6)
Technically, this game will be played one day before the King’s birthday, but That’s alright (Mama), it’s still a good game. The winner of the contest wins the AFC South. Playoff seeds beyond that are All Shook Up until the NFL decides what to do about last week’s Bills-Bengals game.
The Jaguars won their last four games. They’re 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games and 4-2 against the spread at home. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand why the Jags are favored. But could it take a rocket scientist to beat the Jaguars?
The Titans have lost six-straight games, including a 14-point loss to the Cowboys with Josh Dobbs under center last week. In case you missed it, Dobbs is a journeyman (practice squad) quarterback that only joined the team last week. He’s also a (rocket) scientist.
Dobbs has a degree in aerospace engineering and one NFL start. This week, Titans’ coach Mike Vrabel told Dobbs, “You’re So Square, Baby I don’t Care, you’re getting another start. It looks like Vrabel has a Fever and the only cure is more Dobbs, or less Malik Willis.
The Titans won four of their last five games against the Jaguars, but that was before Vrabel started taking quarterbacks off Fiverr. Jacksonville beat Tennessee 36-22 in December, and there’s no reason to think they can’t cover a six-point spread on Saturday.
Fantasy Abacus says: The Titans won’t compete with Buzz Lightyear throwing passes.
Lions @ Packers (-4.5)
I’ve been pretty hard on Aaron Rodgers since he appointed himself shaman of the NFL, but really, What’s So Funny about Peace, Love and Understanding? Sorry, wrong Elvis. Looks like I’ve been wrong about the Packers this year too.
Green Bay used to be Way Down in the standings, but after four-straight wins, the Packers could be back in the playoffs with a win against Detroit. Who knew?
Rodgers knew, of course. Look what he said after beating Minnesota:
“I had faith. I believe in the power of manifestation.I believe strongly in the force of the mind and when you start to believe something strongly, that some miraculous things can happen.”
Thankfully with improved play from the wide receivers, there’s been A Little Less Conversation and a lot more wins from the Packers’ quarterback. Rodgers is 18-7 against Detroit with 53 touchdowns.
Suspicous Minds remember when he trashed his receivers so badly, they cried “Don’t be Cruel”.
If Christian Watson is healthy, expect him to exploit a Lions defense giving up 7.5 yards per attempt, the highest number in the league.
Like the Packers, the Detroit Lions are a .500 team but a win on Sunday puts them in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Lions were 1-6 to start the season, but are 7-2 since then. Goff has multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games, but his numbers are much better at home than on the road.
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams play well anywhere. Only two teams have more rushing scores than Detroit. But Green Bay has been tough on running backs lately, allowing under 65 yards to four straight backs.
The Packers have made the playoffs 16 times in the last 20 years. The Lions haven’t won a playoff game since 1992. If the game were at home, I’d consider Detroit. But it’s not and another losing season will be Stuck on You, Coach Campbell.
Fantasy abacus says: The Packers treat the Lions like Elvis would treat a peanut butter and banana sandwich.
That’s all for now. Thank you to everyone for reading these articles and a special thanks to all things named Sablich. @fantasybruce has left the building…
