Week 5 2023 DraftKings picks — Pickard’s ‘pick-six’

“The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there’s a 90% probability you’ll get it wrong.” – Andy Rooney

The odds of some things are fascinating. It’s that time of year when McDonald’s Monopoly is here, and everyone dreams of peeling a sticker revealing they are now a millionaire. The odds may forever be in your favor as the chance of winning is 1 in 451,822,158. Odds are an interesting probability of guessing an outcome. Did you know the odds of becoming a billionaire are almost zero? With over 7.9 billion people on the planet, there are currently 2,208 billionaires roaming Earth. How does any of this apply to fantasy football?

Odds are still a metric that you can use as a gauge to try and extract an outcome. Vegas provides these odds weekly, and you need to learn how to apply these to your Draft Kings lineups functionally. Here is an example for this week that we can use and dissect for information.

These are the top eight projected highest-scoring games of the week. I have sorted it from the highest to lowest implied totals. The Minnesota Vikings hosting the Kansas City Chiefs is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week. Vegas has predicted this game will end with a combined score from both teams of 52.5 points. KC is projected to score 28 points, leaving the Vikings with 24.5 points.

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This game passes the eye candy test, as you can build and bring back pieces from both sides. Whichever QB stack you go with, you can easily pair your roster with a player from the opposing team. If you take this information and feel there will be high ownerships and want to pivot, you can still buy a piece or two, as the game should be high-scoring. As you go further down the list, you will start picking out players with great matchups you want to capitalize on. Look for RBs in games that the team should smash, take TEs and WR2s in close games for the team that is projected to score less. If the game is close, traditionally, these positions inflate the game’s points and values. 

This isn’t perfect and is never a guarantee. It is usually correct; you want to use every edge to beat your competition. Good luck this week, and if you live in Canada, happy Thanksgiving this long weekend! 

Week 5 ‘Pick-Six’ Pics

Joe Burrow QB, CIN $6,200

Take advantage of this rarity. Joe Burrow this cheap vs. a defense that Daniel Jones shredded with the offensiveless Giants. With Tee Higgins out, Ja’Marr Chase is one of the best stacks with a sub $8k price range. For only $14,100, you get a projected 36.8 projected points. Only 28.2% of our budget is used on two highly desirable skilled positions. 

Alvin Kamara RB, NO $6,300

Kamara stays on the field 80.1% of the time. He averages 14.86 carries/game, 5.13 targets/game, and 3.8 receptions/game. His salary puts him as the highest-value play of the week at RB, with 2.4x his value out the gate. New England’s defense is dealing with injuries, and with Derek Carr still playing through an injury, this feels like a complete smash this week. 

Marquise ‘Holywood’ Brown WR, ARI $5,000

“Cheap is not synonymous with good value.” – Unknown. Holywood has been balling out as of late. Last week, he had seven catches on ten targets and turned it into 96 yards. For $5k, this is excellent value for a guy averaging eight targets per game and doing something with his chances. Two TDs on the year and commands the target share on that offense. QB Josh Dobbs continues to impress every week, and this is a fantastic spot to continue the momentum. 

Mark Andrews TE, BAL $5,500

After a massive game last week and the offense still littered with injuries, this is a cheap price tag for Andrews. The Steelers are the 27th-worst team against TEs. Usually a vaunted defense; they are pedestrians this year. They are currently allowing the 3rd highest yards against. We know Andrews is a target hog, and this is a great price tag for a player who can equal WR1 numbers.

Rondale Moore WR, ARI $3,200

I am doubling down on the Arizona offense this week. Teams that percolate points through the Cincinnati D like a coffee filter, I am all in on. There is a high chance that the Cardinals will be playing from behind, and their top two WRs stand to benefit. Not only does Moore get a lot of looks in the passing game, but he also has a part in the run game. This weapon makes for a great weekly flex play when there are plenty of high-cost skill positions and QBs.

Jets DST, NYJ $3,100

New Orleans was going to be my pick, but we went with them last week. The J-E-T-S, JETS! JETS! JETS! are facing an awkwardly slow NE Patriots, and the price tag is right. The Tenessee Titans are intriguing, but the ownership projections are so high I want to pivot. We know the Jets’ defense has been playing at a Super Bowl-caliber level. Head Coach Robert Salah said this week that RB Breece Hall is no longer under a snap count. The leash is off, and I expect them to minimize their use of QB Zach Wilson and control the game through the ground.

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