Martin Truex Jr., my Brilliant Pick for racing under the lights at Martinsville on Wednesday night, came through like a shining beacon to capture the Grandfather clock at this historic race. And now, NASCAR moves on to Homestead-Miami Speedway with a handful of fans in attendance. One-thousand service members will be socially-distancing in the stands to watch one lucky driver take the checkered flag at the end of this race. But who will it be?
Here’s my NASCAR fantasy advice guiding you to the Brilliant, Bold, and Bonkers drivers for the cup series race this week at Homestead-Miami Speedway: The Dixie Vodka 400
Brilliant – These NASCAR drivers have the best shot at winning in Homestead-Miami
Kyle Bush
Wins at Homestead: 5
Top 5 finishes: 15
Top 10 finishes: 21
Rowdy is seriously—seriously—good at Homestead. You have to go back a long time to find a poor finish. I know that he’s had some pretty rough races, but you can’t deny his enthusiasm. Two of his fellow teammates have punched their ticket to The Chase. It’s his turn.
Joey Logano
Wins at Homestead: 1
Top 5 finishes: 4
Top 10 finishes: 6
Logano has stepped it up in Miami in recent years, likely as this was the final race to determine the NASCAR championship until this season. He’s only had one finish outside of the top 10 since 2012, and that’s a testament to how well he handles the track. I’m looking at the 22 to take the lead early and finish at the top.
Martin Truex Jr.
Wins at Homestead: 1
Top 5 finishes: 6
Top 10 finishes: 10
He won last week at a track that took him years to master. What do you think he’ll do this week on an intermediate track that he’s owned for the last three years? Repeat the pattern, I say.
Bold – These are my NASCAR sleeper picks
Denny Hamlin
Wins at Homestead: 2
Top 5 finishes: 4
Top 10 finishes: 10
Denny Hamlin was a hot pick for one of his best tracks last Wednesday, but he never could get up to speed—no pun intended. Now he sits on the pole at a track where he has two wins in his career, a feat accomplished by no other current driver except his teammate, Kyle Busch. The No. 11 might not be a shoe-in, but he’s the top sleeper pick of the week in this NASCAR race from Miami.
Alex Bowman
Wins at Homestead: 0
Top 5 finishes: 0
Top 10 finishes: 1
Why would I pick the 88 when he hasn’t really been phenomenal here? Because that’s what sleeper picks are all about. And Bowman has just as good a shot as anyone to finish this race in the number one position. That is, of course, if he can hold off my three Brilliant picks and two other bolds.
Kevin Harvick
Wins at Homestead: 1
Top 5 finishes: 11
Top 10 finishes: 17
How do you not think about Happy Harvick when you think about Homestead? Since 2001, this guy has had only two, TWO, finishes outside the top 10. Will he be able to hold everyone else when push comes to shove? That remains to be seen, but I think he’s a pretty bold pick for the win on Sunday.
Bonkers – Stay away from these NASCAR drivers in your fantasy lineup this week
Austin Dillon
Wins at Homestead: 0
Top 5 finishes: 0
Top 10 finishes: 1
You might be tempted to pick Austin Dillon this week since he’s done well for himself at this track. But you can have a million great runs and still not have a win. And to top it off, his wife is due to have a baby any minute (as of the writing of this article) and A.J. Almendinger could pop into the No. 3 in his absence. Leave Dillon off your fantasy team this week.
Ryan Newman
Wins at Homestead: 0
Top 5 finishes: 2
Top 10 finishes: 7
Newman has hit the Homestead-Miami track a time or two…or more. But his numbers here aren’t great, and it’s been a long time since he’s seen the good side of the top-five. Don’t expect much from the No. 6 on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney
Wins at Homestead: 0
Top 5 finishes: 0
Top 10 finishes: 0
Blaney has probably started to have that ‘always a bridesmaid and never a bride’ feeling of late. With four top-five finishes in the last five races, he seems ready to pounce on a win. Having said that, Homestead isn’t a welcome friend to the No. 12 team, so I’d set him aside for fantasy this week.
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