The 2023-2024 NFL season is already just around the corner. As of yesterday, all teams will have their players report for training camp and the season will be underway.
One thing we do know about the NFL is how predictably unpredictable it will be. Every year, different coaches, teams, and players emerge as new stars in the NFL. The key is finding those players and teams before the breakout occurs.
Here are my most intriguing NFL player futures bets to consider going into the 2023-2024 NFL Season.
2023 NFL Most Valuable Player Award
The Pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Betting Odds: +1600 (7th lowest odds)
Rationale: Trevor Lawrence had a great bounce-back season under Coach Doug Pederson after his dreadful year with Urban Meyer. Not only did he lead the Jacksonville Jaguars to an AFC South title for the first time since 2017, but he also got his first playoff victory over the Chargers in the process. During the season Lawrence threw for 4,113 passing yards (9th overall) and 25 touchdowns (10th overall) while also adding 5 rushing touchdowns. His completion percentage increased from 59.6% to 66.3% while also dropping his interceptions from 17 to only 8.
Lawrence also has A LOT going for him this year which will allow him to take another jump into the MVP conversation.
1. The AFC South
The AFC South looks to again be the worst division in football. Lawrence will get to play against the Texans, Titans, and Colts two times each who were three of the worst defenses in football last year both from a yards allowed and points allowed perspective. The Colts allowed the 3rd most points, Houston the 6th most, and while Tennessee was above average in points allowed, they surrendered the most passing yards per game. This should boost Lawrence’s overall numbers for the year and allow the Jaguars to win the division (-165) which will be necessary to win MVP.
2. The addition of Calvin Ridley
It’s no secret that the addition of an elite receiver can make a huge difference for a young quarterback. Just look at Josh Allen before the addition of Stefon Diggs in 2020, which helped him break out and finish 2nd in the MVP voting. More recently, Jalen Hurts made a massive jump as a passer with AJ Brown on board, and like Allen in 2020, had the second most votes for MVP.
Sure, Calvin Ridley is no sure thing after missing all of last season from a suspension and playing only five games the previous year. But he’s still only 28 and the last time he played close to a full season, he ended up with 90 catches, 1,374 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns (2020). The potential is there, and there’s no shortage of weapons behind him, with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne helping Lawrence get the job done.
3. His draft pedigree
While this isn’t something going for Lawrence this season per se, people have to remember the pedigree he had when he was drafted. Lawrence was seen as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck and a “can’t miss” NFL draft pick. He was the number one recruit out of high school and he went first overall for a reason after dominating college football and only losing two games in his high school and college career. Of the past 10 NFL MVPs, nine were chosen in the first round. Lawrence has the talent to be the most valuable player in the NFL for a season.
At +1600, Lawrence also offers great value to win NFL MVP. He enters his second year under Pederson and should have even more comfortability within the offense. According to Sharp Football, the Jaguars have the 12th easiest strength of schedule. The Jaguars currently sit at o/u 9.5 wins (-150) which if the over hits by 2-3 games, could allow them a chance to win the AFC which will only boost his odds to lock up MVP. I will be betting on Lawrence to win NFL MVP, and you should too.
2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
The Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Odds: +250 (Favorite)
Rationale: Listen, I know, +250 is not the most exciting thing in the world. However, Bijan Robinson deserves to be the odds-on favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and here’s why:
1. The talent and the measurables.
It is no secret that Robinson is one of the most hyped running back prospects over the past 5 years. He is thought to be just as good of a prospect as Saquon Barkley coming out of college. Bijan as a runner has elite vision and boasted a 4.46 forty-yard dash, 37” vertical, and 10 ‘4” broad jump. As a pass catcher, he can already line up anywhere on the football field. This will allow him to not only beat defenses running but also through the air as well. He will be an all-purpose weapon for the Falcons this season.
2. Atlanta’s 2022 running attack.
Atlanta’s 2022 running game was used often and was incredibly effective. Atlanta rushed the ball 55.29% of the time (2nd most in the NFL) under Arthur Smith in 2022, who also loved to run the ball during his time in Tennessee under Derrick Henry.
However, Atlanta did not just run the ball, they ran the ball INCREDIBLY WELL. They ran for 2,718 rushing yards (3rd best), and at a rate of 4.9 yards per carry (4th best). The main reasons for the success were Arthur Smith’s scheme and Atlanta’s great offensive line play. Going into this year, Atlanta’s offensive line is ranked 9th by Sharp Football Analysis and 7th by Pro Football Focus. The unit will be incredibly solid and if Tyler Allgier can rush for 1035 yards, imagine what Robinson can do.
3. Draft capital and trends with it.
Robinson was drafted 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Everyone of course argues against taking a running back that high but the Falcons did it. So, what does that mean? It means the Falcons are planning on using Robinson and using him A LOT.
If you take a running back that high that player has to have a high usage rate to justify the pick. Four out of the last six running backs to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (66%) were drafted in the top 10 overall and were used at high rates during their rookie year (Saquon Barkley 2018, Todd Gurley 2015, Adrian Peterson 2007, and Cadillac Williams 2005).
At Betmgm, Robinson is currently receiving 21.8 percent of the bets but 36.1% of the money to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. His odds have also shifted from +300 to +250 indicating that large bets are coming in on him. Robinson is an incredible talent and has landed in the perfect situation in Atlanta to win the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year
The Pick: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
Odds: +700 (2nd lowest odds)
Rationale: Myles Garrett has yet to win a Defensive Player of the Year award since being drafted as the first overall pick in 2017. No one denies Garrett’s talent, but he has yet to even come close to winning NFL’s top honor for defenders. With all that said, this is the year Garrett breaks through.
1. A Browns bounceback
Last season was a strange one for the Cleveland Browns, as they brought in quarterback Deshaun Watson on a five-year, 233-million-dollar contract. However, Watson was suspended for the majority of the season and played poorly when he returned. Meanwhile, Garrett has a monster season with 16 sacks and 18 tackles for losses in only 16 games played.
The problem was the Browns had a 7-10 record and finished last in the AFC North. I expect Watson to bounce back this season with the addition of Elijah Moore, and be in a very good position to at least make the playoffs. The bottom line is, your team needs to make the playoffs to be strongly considered for Defensive Player of the Year, and the Browns will have their best shot in a long time this upcoming season.
2. Statistical longevity
Garrett has arguably been the best defensive end/pass rusher since he joined the Browns in 2017, with his 74.5 sacks (3rd) ranking only behind Aaron Donald at 75 and T.J. Watt at 77.5. Donald is still a great player but is declining and is playing for a weak Rams team. Likewise, Watt is still at the top of his game, his team will also have trouble making the postseason. Garrett gives you the best possible chance to win with his combination of stats and potential team success.
3. Positional advantage
Of the past 10 Defensive Players of the Year, eight of them played on the defensive line and were ELITE pass rushers. They affect the game the most on the defensive side of the ball and probably deserve to win the majority of DPOYs. Garrett will continue to get to the passer and has a strong chance of leading the league in sacks which boosts his odds to win DPOY.
At Betmgm, Garrett is receiving 9.3 percent of all bets but 11.5 percent of the money, which indicates higher dollars being put on Garrett. He has dominated the NFL for the past five seasons, posting double-digit sacks in each one. Expect the former top overall draft pick to finally capture the NFL’s DPOY award this coming season.
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