Once again, my apologies to #abacus nation and my fellow 5th Downers. Due to Halloween-related time constraints, this column will again focus on select games rather than the entire NFL schedule.
I’m having trouble finding a Halloween costume. I’m trying to go out as the Patriots starting QB, but nobody seems to know who that is. Maybe I should just go as their offensive coordinator. Speaking of the Patriots…
Featured Week 8 picks against the spread
Patriots @ Jets (+1.5)
Here we go again. New England is coming off a bad loss, they’re on the road against a divisional rival, the rival has a better record and yet the Patriots are still favored. I don’t get it. Sure, the Jets lost Breece Hall for the year and they lost guard Alijah Vera-Tucker too. George Fant comes off the IR this week but he’s unlikely to play. Alright, I get it, the Jets are banged up. But things aren’t all bad. They signed James Robinson to help replace Hall and they’re even letting Elijah Moore back in the building.
The Jets have won four straight games and come home after beating the Packers and Broncos on the road. Russell Wilson didn’t play in that last game, Mark Rypien’s Cousin’s Sister’s Nephew played, or something like that. For those that don’t know Mark Rypien, he played quarterback a long time ago for some team, but I can’t remember the name.
Do you think Bill Belichick remembers spending a first-round pick on Mac Jones? Do you think he regrets it? Belichick might be the greatest coach in NFL history, but he’s definitely the most indecisive. Against Chicago, Belichick treated Jones like a British prime minister, pulling him in the first quarter in favor of the electric Bailey Zappe. Unfortunately, Zappe couldn’t provide the spark needed to beat a two-win Bears team.
The Patriots need to do something. The Patriots don’t have much to offer beyond the element of surprise these days. They’ve beaten the Jets in five straight games, but things feel different for both teams lately.
Actually, the Patriots win 66.7% of their games when favored, and the Jets win 66.7% of their games as an underdog. I guess the more things change, the more they stay the same, literally. Belichick says that Jones will get the next start, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Liz Truss under center, I mean Rishi Sunak. Either one would be fine, the Patriots always have such a conservative game plan.
Fantasy Abacus says: New England wins and Jets fans go running for the brexits.
Packers @ Bills (-11.5)
Forget the point spread for a moment, what’s the over/under number for teammates thrown under the bus by Aaron Rodgers? There are 53 guys on the roster, right? Every week, Rodgers seems more and more like an old man yelling at kids to get off his lawn. His lawn just happens to be 87,00 square feet of Kentucky Bluegrass known as Lambeau Field.
After losing to a Washington Commanders team led by Taylor Heinicke, you’d think a man with Rodgers’ experience would take ownership of the team’s third straight loss. Not Aaron. When speaking with Pat McAfee the next day, Rodgers was quick to point out that grades for his play were actually very good. Sorry, Aaron, I don’t care what the stats say, your leadership skills deserve an “F”. I’ll bet your teammates would love to add a “U” at the end too.
The Bills don’t have these problems. They’re 5-1. They’re well-rested following a bye, and their quarterback actually seems to enjoy the company of other human beings. Buffalo hasn’t lost a home game yet and they’ve covered the spread each time. Buffalo scores 10 more points per game than the Packers and if it were up to me, Josh Allen would get extra points for not talking to Pat McAfee.
The Bills could be rusty, but they’ll get loose on a team that’s better playing the blame game than playing actual football.
Fantasy Abacus says: The Bills give Rodgers something else to complain about.
Commanders @ Colts (-2.5)
If football games were Halloween treats, this would be a bowl of candy corn. To be honest, I’d rather watch Dan Snyder and Robert Irsay have a slap fight on the sidelines (they have beef). Instead, we get to see Samuel George Ehlinger battle Taylor “No Middle Name” Heinicke. Unlike Ehlinger, the Commanders’ backup has thrown a football in an actual NFL game. He even has good chemistry with their best (and underutilized) receiver Terry McLaurin. Despite all this, the Commanders remain the underdog. Where’s the love for beating the Packers on the road?
Who ever thought the Colts would tell Matt Ryan to hit the road? They just gave the former Falcon a two-year deal. They’ll still owe him $12 million in 2023, but if he gets injured, the team would owe an additional $17 million. So Ryan gets to do nothing and still pocket $12 million? Maybe he should catch a ride back to D.C. with the Commanders, he’ll fit right in.
Colts coach Frank Reich insists the team isn’t waiving the white flag just yet, but you can bet Irsay has a pink slip burning a hole in his pocket. With a backup quarterback in the pocket for each team, trends don’t help much with this game. I’m leaning into the unknown here and betting on Ehlinger’s running ability. It won’t take long for the rest of the NFL to figure him out, but the Commanders won’t have an answer on Sunday.
Fantasy abacus says: The Colts cover this one with Ehlinger’s special sauce.
That’s all for now fellow Downers. If anyone needs me, I’ll be cheering on the Philadelphia Phillies. Feel free to join me @fantasybruce.
