Second-year fantasy running backs to target and avoid in redraft leagues

Rookies are often the highlight during the off-season, but I would like to draw some attention to the second-year players in fantasy football. Oftentimes these sophomores are the ones making the biggest jump in performance year-over-year.

By comparing each player to their current positional ADP, we’ll take a closer look at these second-year running backs and determine whether or not you should be targeting or avoiding them in your upcoming fantasy draft. 

NOTE: Only Half-PPR fantasy stats were used throughout this article. 

Second-year fantasy running backs to avoid

Breece Hall, NYJ

2022 Finish: RB42 | Current ADP: RB12

Before Breece Hall’s Week 7 season-ending injury, he was on pace for 1,000 rushing yards. Prior to his ACL tear, Hall logged a rushing stat line of 80 carries, 463 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Through Week 6, Hall was the RB5 behind Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, and Christian McCaffrey.

Although Hall has obvious RB1 potential, I have concerns that he will miss a few games to start the season despite how optimistic the Jets coaching staff may be. I also believe there will be a decline in his performance being only one year removed from his ACL tear.

Hall may be a great addition to your roster and could very well carry your team through the playoffs, but I think recovering from his ACL tear will limit his production throughout the upcoming season, and he will ultimately finish below his ADP. 

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS

2022 Finish: RB41 | Current ADP: RB32

After Brian Robinson Jr. missed the first four games of his inaugural season, he immediately started competing with Antonio Gibson for touches. It didn’t take long for the rookie to establish himself as the lead back in Washington. 

From Week 5 to Week 17, Robinson was the RB27. The Alabama product had a solid rookie season, but with Eric Bienemy as the new offensive coordinator, I do not think he sees similar production. Washington had the 4th most rushing attempts per game in 2022 with 31.6. Meanwhile, Bienemy with the Kansas City Chiefs ranked 24th in rushing attempts per game with 24.7.

I think the Commanders focus more on their passing game with Bienemy this season, causing the team’s rushing attempts to decrease. I’m also leery about drafting Robinson when I know Gibson is still looming in the backfield. While Robinson’s ADP of RB32 seems enticing, I think there are other backs lower than him that offer more upside in 2023. 

Tyler Allgeier, ATL

2022 Finish: RB27 | Current ADP: RB44

The fifth-rounder from BYU completely shocked the NFL during his rookie season as he made quite the case for himself to be the lead back in Atlanta. However, the Falcons could not pass up on the opportunity to draft Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft.

From finishing as RB27 in 2022 to a current ADP of RB42, it’s obvious that Allgeier’s opportunities will plummet in 2023. It is unclear how large of a role he will have this coming season, but I expect it to be minimal. While Allgeier’s ADP may be low, there are running backs below him, such as D’onta Foreman, Kendre Miller, and Devin Singletary, that I believe would be more valuable. 

Dameon Pierce, HOU

2022 Finish: RB28 | Current ADP: RB18

Dameon Pierce saw an incredible amount of volume for a fourth-round pick in his rookie season. Unfortunately, due to an ankle injury, his rookie campaign was cut short as he missed the final four games of the season. From Week 1 to Week 14, Pierce was putting on a monster performance and slotted in as the RB14. 

Similar to Walker, Pierce was responsible for nearly 66% of all running back carries for the Texans in 2022. Although the Texans did not draft a rookie running back, they did sign Devin Singletary in free agency. Singletary may not threaten Pierce’s lead role, but he will significantly cut into his volume. With the decrease in volume, I do not expect Pierce to live up to his ADP.

Kenneth Walker III, SEA

2022 Finish: RB16 | Current ADP: RB14

Kenneth Walker had an impressive rookie season, but to the surprise of many, the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. I expect Walker’s production will immediately take a hit as he will be competing for touches with the new rookie. 

Walker finished 2022 as the RB16, yet somehow his current ADP is RB14. Walker was 11th in carries amongst all running backs with 228, and he saw roughly 65% of all running back carries for the Seahawks last season. With the addition of Charbonnet, I struggle to see a scenario where Walker can produce similar numbers to support his current ADP. I am completely uninterested in drafting Walker as the 14th running back off the board.

Second-year fantasy running backs to target

James Cook, BUF

2022 Finish: RB44 | Current ADP: RB29

Cook’s first season was underwhelming primarily due to Devin Singletary cutting into the rookie’s opportunities. Singletary signed with the Texans, and the Bills only added Damien Harris in the off-season, solidifying Cook as the lead back in Buffalo.

While Cook’s attempts were limited, he did make the most of each run by averaging 5.8 yards per carry. If Cook can maintain that efficiency while inheriting Singletary’s workload, he should come close to 1,000 rushing yards next season.

The absence of Singletary not only improves the running situation for Cook, but it also improves the receiving situation. Singletary saw 52 targets last season while Cook only saw 32. Additionally, Isaiah McKenzie is no longer on the roster resulting in even more targets being available across this offense.

Cook has been regarded as a receiving back, and this year we may finally see his talent on full display. Cook’s upside is undeniable, and I strongly believe he will outperform his ADP. 

Rachaad White, TB

2022 Finish: RB38 | Current ADP: RB24

Rachaad White had a quiet first half to start his rookie season, but once he took over lead back responsibilities in Week 10, he blossomed in the Buccaneers’ offense. Leonard Fournette was released by the Buccaneers in mid-March, further solidifying White as the lead-back heading into 2023.

The lack of competition in the backfield is the biggest reason for White’s current ADP of RB24. From Week 10 to Week 17, White was the RB29. Interestingly, in that window, he did not score a single touchdown. I imagine this changes for the better next season.

In 2022 the Buccaneers ranked last in rushing attempts per game with 22.1. This was largely due to the offense running through Tom Brady. Fortunately for White, Brady is gone, and the starting quarterback in Tampa will be significantly worse. I have to assume this will lead to more rushing attempts, and White will see an even larger workload. White’s situation is prime for a breakout, and I believe he will take full advantage of the opportunity and finish the season higher than his current ADP. 

Isiah Pacheco, KC

2022 Finish: RB36 | Current ADP: RB27

Isiah Pacheco was another late-round running back that outperformed in 2022. After starting the season as Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s backup, the rookie finally took over lead back responsibilities in Week 10 and has been the team’s first option in the backfield ever since.

From Week 10 to Week 16 Pacheco was the RB16, which shows us exactly what he is capable of in this Chief’s offense. During this window, Pacheco had 109 rushing attempts while CEH and Jerick McKinnon combined for only 38 attempts. He was clearly the team’s go-to back in the second half of the season, and I expect that to be the same in 2023.

Pacheco also played a major role in the Chiefs’ playoff run, rushing over 70 yards twice and scoring a touchdown in the Superbowl. Pacheco is primed for a more substantial role in 2023, and I believe he thrives and outperforms his current ADP.

Jerome Ford, CLE

2022 Finish: RB151 | Current ADP: RB60

Jerome Ford had a quiet rookie season as a rusher. Primarily this was because he was buried in the depth chart behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Ford, however, did contribute to the Browns’ limited success as a valuable kick returner. 

Heading into 2023, Ford is currently in line to be the backup running back behind Chubb. In this role, Hunt finished 2022 as the RB41. Ford is a similar build to Hunt, and I have to believe the Browns use Ford in a similar way they used Hunt. Additionally, if Chubb were to miss anytime, Ford would inherit a massive workload. Ford’s current ADP seems extremely low. I absolutely believe he finishes above RB60 on the year.