“Pressure is something you feel only when you don’t know what you are doing.”
This weekend I ask the casual reader to do something different. Focus on winning one small field in a GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool). Look for a contest that allows you to place up to 5 entries and max it out.
One contest that you should be playing and maxing out every week to help your bankroll is the NFL Supersat $20 Millionaire. The cost of entry is only $0.25, and it feels like a throwaway, but not for us; we are strategic. First and second place win a $20 ticket for the millionaire maker. It’s a max of 5 multi-entry, meaning you are only paying $1.25 per contest with a chance of winning 1,500% value of your investment.
To be poignant, if you cannot win a 190-player contest with five lineups, how do you think you will fare in the millionaire maker contest? If you win these, use these tickets and your new-found lineup-building skills to chase the dream. Take your money and play cash games in head to heads and 50/50 contests.
Here is a review of last week’s picks:
1) Teddy Bridgewater QB, MIA $5,400 – Injuries are part of the game; Teddy was injured early and didn’t have a chance to gain anything above 0 fantasy points.
2) Nick Chubb RB, CLE $8,000 – The Cleveland Lambo finished with 28.40 fantasy points and higher-than-expected ownership of 16.8%. Solid play here.
3) Chris Godwin WR, TB $5,900 – Even with the 27% ownership and 12.30 fantasy points, Godwin was in the Millionaire maker lineup.
4) Tyler Allgeier RB, ATL $4,700 – The only thing worse than this call was the refs and the roughing the passer penalty against Tom Brady. 4.8% ownership and 4.5 fantasy points.
5) Zach Ertz TE, ARI $4,800 – Decent 10.80 fantasy points and a low 8.3% ownership. I was hoping for more here, Ertz was targeted in the red zone, but nothing transpired.
6) Patriots DST, NE $2,900 – The Pat Patriot uniforms were perfect this week. They allowed the Lions to put up a donut, a goose egg, nil, zero, zilch, nada, ok, sorry, you get the point. However, this was the 3rd week in a row where a top-tier defense was selected. 3.9% ownership and 22 beautiful fantasy points.
Week 6 DraftKings picks
1) Tom Brady QB, TB $6,300
The Steelers give up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs. This gets even better because nobody gives up more fantasy points to WRs than the black and yellow. As 10-point favorites, the Bucs should take advantage of a team in turmoil right now. Injuries decimate their defense; it’s a shell of its former self.
2) Joe Mixon RB, CIN $6,900
“Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel was just a freight train coming your way” – Metallica.
Joe Mixon is used more than any other RB inside the 10 and 5-yard line. Mixon is 4th for touches but only has 1 TD. He is also the 6th most targeted RB this year. The usage is high, and the price tag is correct. The Saints are strong against the run, and the Bengals have the 2nd worst adjusted line yards. On paper, this looks like a bad pick.
What is motivating me to pick this is the Bengals should be up all game and will have a heavy run attack because of that. Usage is critical, and with 19.2 touches a game and 27 targets that Mixon has turned into an average of 4 receptions a game, it is an excellent floor to work with. Even Kamara last week had 27.4 fantasy points and no score.
3) Tyler Lockett WR, SEA $5,600
Welcome to the stock market of players. Does he go complete bull or bear? That’s the beauty of a guy like Lockett. 2 catches for 20 yards or two catches for 118 yards and 2 TDS.
The price is right, though. Facing a defense that is ranked 27th place in passing DVOA coupled with a QB that has taken his chance by storm, I love this play. The Seahawks will have to score if they want to beat the Cardinals.
There will be many people selecting Ken Walker III, and here you can pivot from his $5,400 to get a WR averaging 8.5 targets per game and 11.2 yards per reception.
4) J.K. Dobbins RB, BAL $5,500
The Ravens have the 2nd best-adjusted line yards. WR Rashod Bateman is out, and I like Dobbins this week as a contrarian play. There are going to be a lot of lineups with Rhamondre Stevenson, Ken Walker III, and Eno Benjamin. I like these picks (and you should have some lineups with them), but they will be highly-owned pieces this weekend.
If they implode and J.K. Dobbins puts up an average day, you could be in the money. Roster construction is crucial, allowing you to pivot and find value in a $5k RB with low ownership.
5) Zach Ertz TE, ARI $4,900
“Back to back, like I’m on the cover of Lethal Weapon. Back to back, like I’m Jordan ’96, ’97”. – Drake. I’m going back to back on Zach Ertz. His target share is too large to ignore for his price. Additionally, nobody allows more points against TEs than the Seahawks.
The Bills and Chiefs game is going to have a lot of attractors. One of those pieces is going to be Travis Kelce. I wrote last week that Ertz was targeted the most in the red zone and end zone. Kelce took that away by going full Al Bundy with 4TDs in one game.
6) Bengals DST, CIN $3,100
I do not trust Andy Dalton to light this DST on fire. Even if Kamara has a 150-yard day and a TD, the aerial damage from the WRs of this team is minimal. The Bengals allow the 5th least amount of Fantasy points to QBs and 6th least against WRs. Thomas and Landry are out and Olave is questionable. I will eat my keyboard and live stream it if Taysom Hill repeats his ultra-effective week 5 performance. There are plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers in this predicted low-scoring game with an O/U of 43.
