2023 fantasy football preview: AFC North

This series will analyze every NFL team by division to forecast key fantasy football performances and overall team outlooks with futures bets in mind.

Divisional fantasy analysis:
AFC North | AFC South | AFC East | AFC West
NFC North | NFC South | NFC East | NFC West

Cincinnati Bengals 

2022 Record:12-4 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 11.5 

Wins (Under) 

Team Outlook: The Cincinnati Bengals have had back-to-back incredibly successful seasons reaching the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AFC Championship in 2022. They seem to be the only team that can get in the way of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bengals are favored to win the AFC North (+150) but I think will be below their 11.5 expected win total in 2023. Their offense should still be one of the best in the league, however, the loss of FS Jessie Bates and SS Von Bell will hurt their secondary just enough to have them lose the AFC North, but make the playoffs as a wild-card team. 

Quarterback 

Joe Burrow, Average Draft Position: 34.7, QB4 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Joe Burrow scared all Bengals fans after suffering a calf strain in training camp. It looked very concerning, but Burrow seemed to have escaped any major concerns. Burrow offers a high floor and high ceiling with his passing ability alongside one of the league’s best wide receiver duos in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

In 2021, the Bengals were 20th in the league in passing attempts per game but jumped to 6th in the league in passing attempts per game last season. The Bengals should continue to air it out but the end of the 3rd round might be a little too soon for me. Burrow does offer decent rushing ability but not enough to propel him into the top 3 rounds for me. I have him ranked as QB6 but I’m comfortable drafting Joe Burrow in round 4 and happy to draft him in round 5. 

Running Back 

Joe Mixon, Average Draft Position 39.0, RB16 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Joe Mixon has been rising up draft boards after signing a two-year, $11.5 million contract with over $4 million guaranteed. His ADP is climbing and he looks like he is beginning to settle into the 3rd round. However, he does have a pending civil case which could lead to potential suspension, but my gut tells me that will get settled next season.

Mixon is not the most efficient back and can be incredibly inconsistent in fantasy football. Still, he is the lead back in possibly the best offense in football and has very little competition for touches. His range of outcomes is probably a middle RB1 if he has an efficient season to a low-end RB2 if he completely falls off a cliff. Mixon has a chance for 1,000 rushing yards, 50 catches, and double-digit touchdowns because of volume, but at age 27 and as inefficient as he is, I’ll pass on Mixon for other receivers and younger backs. 

Chase Brown, Average Draft Position 185.0, RB65 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Chase Brown was selected in the 5th round by the Cincinnati Bengals. He could get some work here and there but he would most likely find himself in a committee if anything were to happen to Mixon. The Bengals won’t run the ball much, and I am not sure if Brown could be anything really valuable in fantasy football.

Preseason note: Chris Evans has seen more reps as the backup than Chase Brown in training camp. 

Wide Receiver 

Ja’Marr Chase, Average Draft Position 3.0, WR2 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Chase can easily be the top overall player in fantasy football this year. He was 5th in targets per game last season and is one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL. The only receiver that you can justify taking over Chase is Justin Jefferson, but Chase has also had more success in the red zone than Jefferson has had. You can easily justify taking at the number one overall spot in 2023. 

Tee Higgins, Average Draft Position 31.3, WR14 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Here are all of Tee Higgins’s per-game finishes in half ppr throughout his career: WR38, WR12, WR13. Higgins is a great pick as a WR2 this year in the third round. His upside is capped because he plays with Chase, but his floor seems to be at WR15 which is where you are drafting him.

If anything were to happen to Chase, he could be a top 5 receiver. In his range, I am taking Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave over Higgins because of their greater ceiling, but I would still be comfortable with Higgins as my WR1 if I took two other positions in rounds 1 and 2. 

Tyler Boyd, Average Draft Position 159.7, WR57 (FantasyPros ADP) 

A great real-life wide receiver, many NFL teams would be thrilled to have Tyler Boyd as a third receiving option. In fantasy football, he has some upside as a WR3 if Higgins or Chase were to miss time. This past season when both did miss time, he finished as the WR30. However, with Higgins and Chase healthy, he will have trouble being a reliable fantasy option. 

Tight End 

Irv Smith, Average Draft Position 172.0, TE18 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Last year, Hayden Hurst finished as the TE24 on a per-game basis, and the year before C.J. Uzomah finished as the TE20. There isn’t much value here other than a potential streamer during the year.

Baltimore Ravens 

2022 Record: 10-7 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 10.5 Wins (Over) 

Team Outlook: The Baltimore Ravens are my pick to win the AFC North this season, which I explained in a recent article. Lamar Jackson is back and is fully healthy with a new contract to keep him in Baltimore for four more years. The Ravens have the best weapons they have ever had with the addition of Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. The offensive line should be fantastic again and the defense seemed to have figured it out down the stretch. When Jackson plays he has won 70% of his games which gives the Ravens a great chance to win the division (+220). 

Quarterback 

Lamar Jackson, Average Draft Position 34.7, QB5 (FantasyPros ADP) 

When Jackson plays, Jackson is a fantasy stud, period. On a PPG basis since 2019, Jackson has finished QB1, QB8, QB7, and QB6. On a points-per-game basis you have a locked and loaded top-10 quarterback and this year he has the upside for much more.

What has hurt Jackson is the Ravens’ lack of passing attempts and his lack of overall offensive weapons. This year the Ravens have brought in Todd Monken who has used pass-heavy offenses in the past. Not only that, but the Ravens also added WR Beckham Jr., and 1st round rookie WR Zay Flowers. Lamar’s ceiling is the overall QB1 and is well worth a 4th round pick, especially in four-point per passing touchdown leagues. 

Running Back 

J.K. Dobbins, Average Draft Position 50.3, RB20 (FantasyPros ADP) 

This offseason has been flooded with running back news and issues over contract situations. While Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs have all gotten media attention, J.K. Dobbins has also been holding out/in Ravens camp. He is currently listed on the PUP list but I believe it has more to do with his lack of a long-term contract than it is with real injury.

Dobbins’s ADP has slipped into the 5th round and looks like a potential steal this year. Dobbins needs to play to make money and has been incredibly efficient in his career. Even only one year removed from a torn ACL and not fully healthy, he was the RB14 through weeks 14-17. If he stays healthy (which has been a huge question mark) he could be an elite RB2 with RB1 upside. While missing time with the new offense concerns me, I still have Dobbins as the RB12. 

Gus Edwards, Average Draft Position 184.7, RB60 (FantasyPros ADP) 

He’s worth a flier if Dobbins misses time or sits out part of the season. He could be a fantasy flex option in deeper leagues if an injury to Dobbins occurs, but with Melvin Gordon signing, it would likely turn into a committee. I’d rather take some younger backs in this range. 

Wide Receiver 

Odell Beckham Jr, Average Draft Position 115.7, WR44 (FantasyPros ADP). 

I am mostly out on the wide receivers in Baltimore and if I do take one it will not be the aging, injury-prone Beckham Jr. He is still a big name but I feel that all three receivers on the Ravens will try and survive off the scraps left by Mark Andrews. While he could show flashes of his former self I don’t see Beckham being anything more than a WR4. 

Zay Flowers, Average Draft Position 130.7, WR50 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If there is one receiver in this Ravens offense that I am taking in fantasy drafts this season it is Zay Flowers. He is the youngest of the three and is only being taken one receiver spot higher than Rashod Bateman. Peter King, who has been visiting training camps across the league, recently wrote, “The most impressive rookie I have seen in six camps is Zay Flowers.”

Flowers has the talent and definitely could emerge as the team’s number-one receiver. I like drafting rookie WRs in fantasy football because usually one smashes their ADP, and Flowers has a great chance. At the end of the 11th round, he’s a great pick. 

Rashod Bateman, Average Draft Position 137.0, WR51 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Rashod Bateman has shown flashes of fantasy value after being the WR24 in weeks 1-3 last season. He emerged as a solid target for Jackson but quickly left the season with lisfranc injury on his foot. Bateman is currently on the PUP list and is someone I am staying away from this season. Lisfranc is a highly recurring injury. I have major concerns if he stays on the field this season and with the additions of Beckham and Flowers, I think his upside is capped.

Tight End 

Mark Andrews, Average Draft Position 28.3, TE2 (FantasyPros ADP). 

Travis Kelce is the king of tight ends. However, if Kelce is king, Andrews is the prince that was promised. Over the past five seasons, Andrews is the only tight end to finish as the TE1 other than Kelce (2021). His finishes are TE17, TE4, TE5, TE1, and TE4. If there is anyone that can dethrone Kelce it’s Andrews and this year might be one of his best chances.

Yes, there is increased target competition. However, Bateman is already on the PUP, Beckham is an aging veteran, and while I like the talent of Flowers, he is still a rookie. Andrews is the most proven option with strong chemistry with Lamar and has been incredibly efficient throughout his career. With Monken coming in, the Ravens will pass a lot more and run a faster pace offense which could also potentially give Andrews a boost. You want a bold prediction? Andrews passes Kelce and is the TE1 this season in fantasy football.

Pittsburgh Steelers 

2022 Record: 9-8 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 8.5 Wins (Over) 

Team Outlook: Mike Tomlin is truly one of the best coaches in football. Over the past nine seasons, the Steelers have finished under 9 wins, once. The Steelers started the season last year at 3-7 but finished winning the last 6 of 7 games. The offense started off horrendously but showed some signs of life at the end. This defense is elite and will be the focal point the Steelers build their strategy around with a young quarterback in Kenny Pickett. While Pickett has his issues, I think the Steelers will be better than 18.1 PPG or 7th worst in the NFL like they were last year. 

Quarterback 

Kenny Pickett, Average Draft Position 156.7, QB20 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Year two is a big year for Pickett. He needs to show that he can support an average offense and the Steelers can move forward with him. The Steelers’ offensive line should be improved, the running game is solid and Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Friermuth are solid weapons. In fantasy football, he is an interesting option in two-quarterback leagues, but in a one quarterback league, he only offers streaming upside. 

Running Back 

Najee Harris, Average Draft Position 27.5, RB11 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Over his past two seasons, Najee Harris has finished as the RB7 and RB17. He’s averaged 20.4 touches per game over the past two seasons but saw his catches go from 74 to 41. The volume has been there, but the efficiency has been poor. He has averaged under 4 yards a carry for the past two seasons and while some of it is on the offensive line, Jaylen Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry.

As a pass catcher, Harris has averaged 6.1 yards per reception to Warren’s 7.6. Although Tomlin’s tendency has been to give one running back a huge share of the workload, that seems like it could come down because of Harris’s inefficiency. In this past preseason game against the Buccaneers, Najee and Warren had a relatively split snap count. As an inefficient back relying on workload, I am out on Najee at ADP.

Jaylen Warren, Average Draft Position 161.0, RB51 (FantasyPros ADP) 

My favorite handcuff of the 2023 fantasy football season. Warren should be the last pick of your draft in every single draft you have this season. Yes, he has handled much less work than Harris, but he has been far more efficient. The Steelers ended the season on a four-game winning streak where Warren averaged 10.75 touches per game. He may have some stand-alone value but if anything happened to Harris, he could be a fantasy league difference-maker.

Wide Receiver 

Diontae Johnson, Average Draft Position 83.3, WR33 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Similar to his teammate Harris, Johnson has been a volume monster in terms of targets. On a per-game basis Johnson has finished 3rd, 5th, and 17th in targets over the past three seasons. Last year was a big falloff because of the loss of Ben Roethlisberger and the addition of George Pickens. Johnson finished as the WR38 last year despite scoring 0 touchdowns on the year (somehow). If he had scored just two touchdowns he would have finished as the WR28.

However, like I said with Harris, the Steelers may turn to other options because of that lack of efficiency which may have happened with the huge falloff this year. At the end of round 7, I would rather roll the dice with the younger Pickens who I can get later in drafts. 

George Pickens, Average Draft Position 87.7, WR35 (FantasyPros ADP) 

After a solid rookie year finishing as WR37 and making some ridiculous catches in training camp, Pickens is receiving a lot of hype going into year two. There’s a case to be made that Pickens could be the WR1 in Pittsburgh over Johnson, but I see this more as a 1a 1b type of wide receiver room with a slight lean toward Pickens.

If Pickens did emerge as a true number one, he would smash his current ADP. I like Pickens at the beginning of the 8th round as WR3/4 because of his great talent and his opportunity to take over the target in Pittsburgh. 

Tight End 

Pat Friermuth, Average Draft Position 88.7, TE9 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Friermuth finished as the TE8 last season despite only scoring two touchdowns. The year before, Friermuth scored 7 touchdowns so that number should come up from what it was. The fact that he was able to finish as the tight end 8 with only two touchdowns shows he has a solid role within this offense. Johnson, Pickens, and Friermuth are all going in the same area as one another and Friermuth seems like he has a good chance to beat his current ADP if that touchdown number increases.

If I am taking a Pittsburgh Steeler pass catcher, I love Friermuth the most in the 8th round over Pickens, then Johnson.

Cleveland Browns 

2022 Record: 7-10 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 9.5 Wins (Under) 

Team Expectation: Everyone seems to love the Browns to bounce back this coming season. Deshaun Watson played poorly last year but many have blamed that on rust for missing so much of the 2022 season. The offensive roster is talented and there should be some solid fantasy contributors in 2023. While I am doubtful we will ever see a Houston Texans version of Watson in Cleveland, he should be better than he was last season. I have a slight lean on the under in wins more because of the level of the AFC North than because of flaws in Cleveland. 

Quarterback 

Deshaun Watson, Average Draft Position 82.7, QB10 (FantasyPros ADP) 

From Weeks 13-18 last season, Watson was the QB14. He was of course suspended for the first 12 weeks after off-the-field issues and was not ready for the NFL when he came back. However, he did also come back during some of the worst weather weeks in football last year which didn’t help. The positive from last season is that Watson still shows rushing ability with 29 rushing yards per game. With a full offseason and the addition of Elijah Moore, Watson has a solid chance to beat his current ADP. 

Running Back 

Nick Chubb, Average Draft Position 11.3, RB5 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Last season Nick Chubb finished as the overall RB5. Before that RB11, RB9, RB7, and RB16 in his rookie season. Chubb is one of the safest picks in fantasy football and is almost guaranteed to finish top 10 at the running back position if he stays healthy.

The Browns’ offensive line is still phenomenal and Kareem Hunt has left town, which could open up some opportunity for Chubb in the receiving game and will also allow Chubb to have the goal line to himself.

However, while his receiving numbers could go up, I still think the Browns coaching staff prefers to use him as a runner and will find another option for that 3rd down role. The only running backs I have ahead of Chubb are McCaffrey, Barkley, Robinson, and Ekeler.

Wide Receiver 

Amari Cooper, Average Draft Position 42.7, WR17 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Amari Cooper has been a solid fantasy contributor throughout his entire career. That was put in question last year after he joined the Cleveland Browns and fantasy owners knew he would have rough quarterback play for at least 12 weeks. The rough quarterback play actually continued after week 12 but Cooper still finished the season as the WR9 on the season and the WR15 on a points-per-game basis.

Watson should bounce back to some degree. However, Moore joins the offense to compete for targets, which could hurt Cooper. If I’m drafting a Browns receiver, I would rather have Moore in round 9 than Cooper in round 4. 

Elijah Moore, Average Draft Position 115.7, WR45 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Moore had a lot of hype last year that he fell well short of. The Jets decided to move on from Moore and it might be the best thing for him. Moore has plenty of talent and may just need a change in scenery to revive his career. During his rookie season in 2021, from weeks 7-12 Elijah Moore was the WR3 in half-PPR — WR3!

Moore is also entering into his 3rd season which is a popular breakout year for young and talented wide receivers in the right situations. Moore should have the best quarterback play of his career and is a great WR4 to have. 

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Average Draft Position 158.0, WR66 (FantasyPros ADP) 

A solid deep ball receiver, Donovan Peoples-Jones helps the Browns stretch the field and open up passes underneath. However, this should help them more so from a real football perspective than in fantasy. If anything happens to Cooper or Moore, Peoples-Jones is a good waiver add. 

Tight End 

David Njoku, Average Draft Position 96.7, TE10 (FantasyPros ADP) 

David Njoku is a physical specimen that also should help the Browns win football games. In fantasy football, his best finish was as the TE8 on a points-per-game basis, which he was this past season. That was with Njoku finishing 3rd on the team in targets which, won’t sustain itself with Moore joining the fold. I am out on Njoku in 2023.