As we finally roll into draft season, it’s a good time to pick out some RB situations that might not play out the way we think. Player talent is obvious, but sometimes it is schemes and situations out of their control that shape their fantasy season.
This leads to scenarios where players are drafted too high and if we don’t get the proper return on our picks, we suddenly become just another team that is way more interested in the waiver wire than we want to be.
Let’s consider five players on various spots on your draft board and look a little closer at what this season might hold for them and why you might want to look elsewhere.
Najee Harris (PIT)
I am going to play fast and loose with the term “bust” here. Is Najee Harris going to be a bum this year? I find it hard to believe that he will fall off the face of the world due to the sheer amount of volume he is going to receive.
My question is regarding his draft position. Is he going too high? You have got to stick the landing on your early picks, and his ADP price is a late first-rounder at this moment. I am not sure I am seeing a clear path for improvement this year. His recent acknowledgment of Lisfranc issues with his foot only compounds these issues.
Let’s start with the positives, and there were quite a few. He rushed for 1200 yards (4th in the NFL) on 307 attempts (2nd in the NFL), which is production you want to see. He had seven rushing touchdowns, but that seems a little low, right? He led all RBs with 74 catches, tacked on 3 TDs, and finished as the number 3 scorer in PPR leagues. Well earned, young man.
Last season was just that, last season, so let’s set our gaze ahead to this year. The major problems facing the Steelers last season, OL and QB were addressed, technically, but you don’t hear anyone pounding their chest about this. The offensive line was ranked 24th in PFF with a grade of 71.7 in 2021. The team chose to not address it at all in the draft and in free agency, they cobbled together three mid-level signings across the front. The current version of the line has yet to gel so far this pre-season, which only clouds the play of the backfield like so many onrushing linemen.
The artist-formerly-known-as Big Ben and his worn-out shoulder was not sending out real killer vibes as last season progressed. In his defense, he would consistently come up to the line, check into the right play, and put Harris in prime position to succeed.
With his retirement, all they have to do to remedy that is get a new QB to direct traffic. Sounds easy right? The team used their 1st round pick on QB Kenny Pickett and signed Mitch Trubisky. Problem solved?!? That is not a sigh of relief you hear, more like an exasperated fan groaning after Harris is tackled for a loss running into an eight-man box. Again.
Look, we know Harris going to get the volume, which is king in fantasy, but can you see a scenario where he improves over last year? I cannot. Remember that 12 rushes for 29 yards game in the playoffs? If that is what you had to chew on during the off-season, the taste must not have been very good. I see him as a mid-to-late second-rounder, so be safe with that first-round pick. If you have to ask, “is it safe?”, it usually isn’t, and someone ends up getting drilled.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
At some point, we have to start to wonder if we have seen the ceiling to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. For his benefit, I’m sure he is telling anyone within earshot, “I’m good,” “I can do short-yardage” or “Why wasn’t I involved in the playoff run last year?” CEH is a known name and is the starter in a top-flight offense. His play is never bad, 64.3 overall PFF grade last year, but is it wrong to want more?
He has had this role for a few years and hasn’t really become the second coming of Brian Westbrook everyone was hoping for in this Andy Reid offense. We make a mistake when we assume a new player will automatically step right into an offense and replace a player, especially one of an established star’s stature. I have finally learned this and I won’t do it again any time soon. You know who Treylon Burke really reminds me of? A.J. Brown…
Was the gall bladder surgery during the season the thing that slowed CEH down? Nobody can really be sure. He did see a drop in his play and weight. He lost the touch count in the playoffs in the two games (15-8 against the Bills and 15-7 against the Bengals) he played with Jared McKinnon. Is this because of injury or the coaches knowing what they have to work with? Makes you wonder. I find it hard to believe his 5th-year option will be picked after next year, so if he has already hit his ceiling, why wouldn’t the team try to find a cheaper option?
Of course, Isiah Pacheco has been the darling of camp for fantasy wags looking to fill the Helaire void. McKinnon is still around and Ronald Jones is also getting mentions, which makes it a four-headed attack at the position. This only shrinks the size of a pie that he wasn’t able to claim for himself in the first place. Signs are pointing away from CEH, so we might want to pay attention and be cautious on draft day.
Cam Akers (LAR)
Kudos to any man who tears his Achilles tendon and comes back in that season to play in the Super Bowl. That was a great story of hard work and dedication. However, did I mention that he averaged just 2.6 yards a carry during that playoff run and the team limped to a 44.7 PFF rushing grade, which was last for all 14 playoff teams? I don’t want to rain on his inspirational parade, but Willis Reed came back from injury and knocked down some jumpers. Akers just got knocked down.
Akers’s season statistically might not be under his control. Let’s not forget what coaching tree Sean McVay comes from. He is a branch off the Shanahan tree, and do you want to wade into murky RB waters? (“Does the name Trey Sermon mean anything to you Sir?!!”) Maybe McVay wants to keep Akers fresh or he likes the between-the-tackles action of Darrell Henderson.
Sony Michel was added via trade last season and led the team with 208 rushes, Henderson wasn’t far behind with 149 and he ended up with more TDs (5 to 4) than Michel. With Michel gone, a time-share looks to be on the horizon, but how much of that will Akers get?
Do you know how pass-heavy McVay was last year? Guess how many rushing TDs the entire team had? If you guessed 10 (TEN?) you are correct and you probably cheated to find that number, but I admire the hustle and can-do attitude.
The offense is pass-heavy all right, to the tune of 41 TDs. The running game looks to be used to keep the defense honest, and that strategy led to a Super Bowl title last year. Do you see the team changing direction? Especially if McVay might have one foot out the door, you are wrong if you think that other foot isn’t on the accelerator, if I may mix my metaphors.
There really is no guarantee that Akers is going to be the man in a 70/30 split. What if it is closer to a 60/40 split, do you want to draft Akers in the 4th/5th round with that kind of uncertainty? I would rather take Henderson four rounds later and let someone else spend for Akers.
David Montgomery (CHI)
You have to look at last season if you are a Bears fan and acknowledge that maybe your offensive head coach was over his skis and didn’t know what he was doing. I know you have already thought about that and said the same thing, perhaps in a more colorful and profane fashion.
Everything has ramifications. The Bears fired the coach and GM, hired a new regime and now the clock starts to tick on a rebuild. This is great if you are looking to the future, but what about this year?
Let’s try to read the tea leaves, shall we? They bring in a defensive coordinator be the head coach, which is usually a move to a more conservative approach. But they hire an offensive coach from the Packers, a team that has prominently featured two-running backs, a speedy pass-catcher, and a battering ram. It might look like Montgomery will play the battering ram and Khalil Herbert will be the speedy option and get the third-down work.
In a normal year, I would be more bullish on Montgomery. He has a strong lineage, finishing in the top 15 each of the past two years, but this might be a lost year for the Bears and sadly, for Montgomery. His PFF run grade fell from 83.9 to 67.7 last year and stars haven’t exactly aligned for a bounce-back story.
The offensive line is going to be green, potentially starting one rookie and two second-year players. If the big man can’t get a head of steam, that is going to be problematic. The team might also be playing from behind more often than not, which could get Herbert more time on the field as the game progresses.
Any fan of the team who has watched the pre-season has held their breath as Justin Fields is running for his life. A scenario where the line meshes and becomes one solid and cohesive unit doesn’t seem like a likely scenario, so draft accordingly.
Josh Jacobs (LV)
Remember how much fun it has been to decipher the Patriots’ run game the previous years? The subterfuge with multiple backs, the rookies with ridiculous camp hype, the BenJarvus Green-Ellis? You now get to play that game in Sin City and Josh Jacobs looks to be the one who will get his code cracked.
Which will be a shame for Jacobs, who was a solid contributor in 2021. He had 872 yards and 9 rushing TDs and chipped in with 54 catches as well. The team was far from impressed and decided to not pick up his 5th-year option, which is hardly a gesture of good faith. The team already has Kenyan Drake returning, added Ameer Abdullah, and then drafted Zamir White in the fourth round to fortify the room.
His efficiency improved from 2020 to last year, with the PFF rushing grade moving from 79.4 to 81.5. But I get it, he’s no Ameer Abdullah. Maybe they wanted to just remind everyone what a 4-way platoon could look like and to also show what a fantasy nightmare looks like.
Jacobs struck me this year as one of the backs you would try to grab in the dead zone if you went zero RB or anchor RB. This might be a player to avoid, as other backs offer a clearer path to the field with considerably less competition. This is starting to look like a “new coach/not my guys” kind of season for Jacobs.
The passing offense should be livelier with the addition of DeVante Adams, paired with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro, so maybe the rushing game gets shaved down a bit or perhaps they offer multiple looks with multiple styles of backs. All these scenarios do not bode well for Jacobs, who looks like he will have to decipher a new area code next season.
