Wide Receiver Sleepers: If you miss out on some of the bigger names at wide receiver in your fantasy football draft, do not panic. There are plenty of quality options in the mid-rounds, including veterans like Larry Fitzgerald and Randall Cobb, and emerging stars like Chris Hogan.
[Also See: 7 Deep Sleepers at Wide Receiver | 2018 Fantasy Football Rankings]
Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
In the last three seasons, Larry Fitzgerald has finished as the WR4, WR11, and WR7. At his current average draft position of WR14, he immediately stands out as a value based on past finishes. Fitz has had at least 100 targets for 14 consecutive seasons, played in 218 of 224 career regular season games, and has three straight years with at least 107 catches and 1,023 yards.
I could rattle off stats about how Fitzgerald is an ageless wonder all day long, but you get the idea. He’s the Frank Gore of wide receivers. The Cardinals signed Sam Bradford to be their starting quarterback this offseason, and it’s a match made in heaven with Fitzgerald. Known for his conservative nature, Bradford loves the checkdown throws that Fitzgerald has thrived on for the last few seasons. Bradford’s career average depth of target of 7.7 yards meshes perfectly with Fitzgerald’s target heat map (pictured below).
Clearly, Fitzgerald thrived on short targets last year, which makes sense: with sapped athleticism, the Cardinals utilized Fitz closer to the line of scrimmage, where he can use his technique to beat defenders. With three consecutive WR1 seasons and a quarterback that meshes with his style of play, Fitzgerald is a target of mine in fantasy football drafts this year.
Chris Hogan – New England Patriots
Through the first eight weeks of 2017 – that is, before he got hurt – Chris Hogan was the WR10 in PPR leagues. Last year, Hogan commanded a 24 percent red zone target share on an offense that has finished in the top three in offense for seven consecutive seasons. I don’t like to depend on touchdowns for fantasy production, but Hogan is a top target in arguably the league’s most potent passing attack. Hogan had the seventh-highest snap share among all wide receivers last year, so clearly the Patriots want him on the field. With Julian Edelman suspended, Hogan is the clear No. 1 WR for the Patriots for the first quarter of the season.
Once Edelman returns, the two will most likely operate as the 2A and 2B options in the passing game – behind Rob Gronkowski – but how much juice does a 32 year-old Edelman – who has played 25 of the last 48 regular season games – have left in the tank? If Edelman can’t return to his pre-injury form, Hogan has WR1 potential as the top wide receiver in a Tom Brady offense. If Edelman is the same as he was before, Hogan is still the No. 2 option in the red zone for the league’s premier aerial attack. If he’s completely healthy, Edelman will suck up triple-digit targets, but the departures of Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola free up 200 targets. Hogan is in line for triple-digit targets from the league’s most successful quarterback as well as a prominent role in the most potent offense in the game. At his current average draft position of WR25, he’s a bargain in fantasy football leagues.
Emmanuel Sanders – Denver Broncos
Prior to 2017, Emmanuel Sanders had four consecutive seasons of 100 or more targets, topping 1,000 yards in 2014, 2015, and 2016. Sanders disappointed fantasy owners in 2017, notching only 555 receiving yards to go along with two touchdowns in an injury-riddled campaign. Sanders still averaged nearly eight targets per game last year, a 123-target pace over 16 games. In the seventh round, a player in line to see 120 targets or more is an easy decision regardless of the quarterback situation, but the Broncos upgraded at quarterback this offseason, so that’s not a worry either.
After struggling through the season with a carousel of Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, and Brock Osweiler manning the helm, Denver signed Case Keenum to a two-year deal in free agency. While Keenum probably won’t replicate the efficiency he posted with the Minnesota Vikings last year, he’s a clear upgrade over the trio the Broncos rolled out last year. With a clear path to volume and an improved quarterback situation, Sanders is a value at his seventh-round ADP.
Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers
Once heralded as the league’s next superstar slot receiver, the excitement surrounding Randall Cobb has died down. That means the time to buy him is right now. Following Jordy Nelson’s departure, Cobb is the No. 2 wide receiver in an Aaron Rodgers offense. In the eight seasons that Rodgers has played 15 or more games, his WR2 has finished as a top 24 fantasy WR six times and top 30 seven times with an average finish of WR21.3. In the last 21 games that both Cobb and Rodgers played, Cobb averaged 7.3 targets for 5.1 receptions, 56 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game. Last year, those splits would have placed Cobb at WR23 on a points per game basis, and that’s with Nelson still on the team.
At his current ADP of WR36, Cobb is a screaming value. He has struggled with ankle issues this offseason, so that’s something to monitor as the season draws closer, but Cobb is the best value in fantasy football – period – if he is healthy.
Jamison Crowder – Washington Redskins
One year ago, Jamison Crowder was a sixth-round pick coming off a breakout 2016 campaign in which he totaled 847 yards and seven touchdowns. Through the first six weeks of the 2017 season, Crowder was the WR86 and averaged only 5.2 points per game. Over the final ten games, Crowder was the WR18 and averaged 13.4.
It was a tale of two halves for Crowder last year, but the fantasy community has not realized how productive the former Duke Blue Devil was down the stretch. The Redskins brought in Alex Smith this offseason, and it’s a match made in heaven for a volume slot receiver such as Crowder. According to Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros, Smith threw into tight windows only 12 percent of the time last year, last among quarterbacks. Crowder averaged 3.2 yards of separation per target in 2017, eighth among wide receivers, while fellow Washington receivers Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson struggled to separate.
With a quarterback that meshes with his style of play and an underrated finish to the 2017 season, it looks like we were a year too early on the Crowder breakout. Crowder is a value at his WR34 ADP and should be targeted in the late seventh round of fantasy drafts.
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