Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our
each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article. Please be on the lookout for that in the future. This week’s Twitter Question of the Week comes from @marc_katabian, asking about “Big Ben or Taysom Hill?” The answer will be at the bottom of this article.
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, or Kyler Murray.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 13 — Quarterback
Start – Philip Rivers (QB, IND) vs HOU
Old man Rivers is finally starting to look like a fantasy asset that can be streamed in the right matchup. This week they will be running up against the Houston Texans, and Houston is certainly known for giving up fantasy points.
Presently Houston allows 19.4-FPPG which is the 12th-worst in the NFL. At 10th-worst, Houston’s defense is allowing 254.8 passing yards per game. This should allow Rivers enough wiggle room to do some damage against Houston. This Texans team could be a little easier to score on as well. Their offense will be missing a key player in Will Fuller and that could easily cause some dysfunctional drives that stall-out quickly. Drives that end quickly could give Indy a shortened field position and allow them to put pressure on an already flimsy defense.
Rivers has looked better of late and has scored six touchdowns in his previous three games. In addition he has thrown the ball for at least 288 passing yards in the same aforementioned time. The Texans can be a friendly fantasy team to go up against and Rivers is a player you can start heading into Week 13.
Start – Taysom Hill (QB, ATL) @ATL
In a divisional rematch, Taysom Hill will travel to Atlanta to go for the season sweep against the Falcons. With a 45.5u, sportsbooks are expected a paced-down game and that is no surprise with Hill under center for New Orleans.
Hill excelled in this spot last time as well, scoring 24.2 fantasy points on 233 passing yards, forty-nine rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Last week against Denver he also punched in two touchdowns via the ground and finished with 122 all-purpose yards.
Atlanta allows 24.4-FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and that comes in as second-worst in the NFL. lt is hard to imagine that Atlanta will be able to completely stop this Saints team. One thing is for sure and that is that Hill is the focal point of the offense and everything seems to run through him. Expect a solid game against Atlanta and start him up in fantasy leagues for a backend QB1 finish.
Sit – Matthew Stafford (QB, DET) @CHI
The Chicago Bears are never an easy opponent, especially when you travel and play them at home like Stafford will be. This game is already projected to be ugly and has a 44.5u with Chicago being 3-point favorites. For the Lions, they will have to overcome a coaching regime change and a tough Chicago defense.
Stafford will be running up against one of the toughest defenses against fantasy quarterbacks and they currently allow an average of 16.6-FPPG, which is sixth-fewest. Chicago has been tough against the pass all season as well. They come in as the 11th-best defense at limiting passing yards and have allowed 223.7 passing yards per game. Additionally over their last three games they have shrunk that total down to 211 passing yards per game.
Stafford’s form has not looked great of late. Over his last four games he has finished with 10.4, 23, 7.6 and 17.1 fantasy points respectively. In those four games he is averaging 240 passing yards and 1.25 touchdowns. Chicago is sure to wreak havoc on this team, especially with Detroit playing on the road. Sit Stafford out in Week 13 and wait for better match ups and opportunities.
Start-Sit Week 13 — Running Back
Start – Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC) vs NE
After smashing expectations in Week 12, Austin Ekeler has a chance to continue his heavy usage against the New England Patriots. The New England defense always leaves a bad taste in fantasy managers’ mouth, but currently they allow 18.4-FPPG to opposing running backs. For an all-purpose back like Ekeler, that is more than enough to get us what we need.
In his first game back from the IR, Ekeler was supposedly going to be eased into his workload. Sharp DFS players saw through the smoke and mirrors (much like they did with Christian McCaffrey’s return from IR) and were rewarded by Ekeler’s biggest workload of the year. His final stat-line was 14 carries for 44 rushing yards and eleven receptions for eighty-five receiving yards. Any running back getting 25 opportunities is a slam-dunk play in fantasy, even against teams like New England.
Ekeler’s usage is solidified in this offense. Quarterback Justin Herbert looks his way and that was the biggest worry for Ekeler. Start him up each and every week, including Week 13.
Start – David Montgomery (RB, CHI) vs DET
Detroit is the worst defense against opposing fantasy running backs and have allowed 28.2-FPPG. To highlight just how bad this is, it is two points higher than the second-worst defense and seven points higher than the fourth-worst defense. To make matters worse Detroit is also the fifth-worst team at defending the run on a yardage basis and has surrendered 133.4 rushing yards per game.
Opportunities never really have been the issue with Montgomery, but efficiency has. With a team like Detroit traveling over to Chicago, it should allow Montgomery to be efficient with his touches. Even in a bad game-script in Week 12, Montgomery played well and made the most of his 16 opportunities, and even found the end zone for just the second time this season.
Montgomery looked better and almost rejuvenated against Green Bay in Week 12. Start him up in Week 13 as a great RB2 play against the worst run-defense in the NFL.
Sit – Todd Gurley (RB, ATL) vs NO – Questionable
By now you know that the Saints don’t allow any breathing room to opposing running backs. 12.3-FPPG is the average amount of fantasy points that the Saints give up against opposing backs and Gurley will have to scratch and claw his way to get to that mark. Denver barely reached the century mark in rushing yards and it took running the ball endlessly against New Orleans (literally, they attempted nine passes). To that end, the New Orleans defense has only surrendered an average of 67 rushing yards over their last three games.
Gurley did not look good in this spot two weeks ago. The former fantasy-stud finished with 26 rushing yards on eight attempts, coupled with one reception for three receiving yards. His final fantasy output for Week 11 was 3.4 fantasy points. The difference between now and then is that Gurley is currently dealing with a knee injury, which is always concerning. Additionally, we know that other backs get worked into the mix for Atlanta and that will likely be more of the case with this injury issue.
Gurley is easily one of the riskiest fantasy plays of the week. Get him out of your lineups and let him sit on the sideline for Week 13.
Start-Sit Week 13 — Wide Receiver
Start – Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR) @ARI
Arizona is allowing 24.3-FPPG to opposing wide receivers which ranks middle of the pack. Of late, Arizona has actually shut down opposing passing offenses from a statistical point of view, however, the middle of the field is where they can be beaten and that is where Cooper Kupp will be. Kupp should be getting a lot of slot-coverage from Byron Murphy and PFF has graded this as one of the top mismatches of the week.
Outside of Week 12, Kupp has been a target machine most of the year. In his last four games, he has seen 45 targets (only seeing five in Week 12) and secured 29 of those for a reception. I have already highlighted how Arizona gets beat over the middle of the field and that is due to the solid-play of cornerback Patrick Peterson, which forces quarterbacks to different progressions in their reads. Plus, Kupp has always been a safe haven for Jared Goff and this week will be no different.
Kupp looks like he could be heavily featured and targeted this week and fantasy managers need to get them into their lineups for Week 13.
Start – Corey Davis (WR, TEN) vs CLE
Looking at Davis’ game log, his 2020 season is likely going to be the closest thing to breakout that we are going to see with Tennessee. Outside of a goose-egg in Week 9, Davis has put up at least 8.5-FPPG. He also has the ceiling to get you 20-plus fantasy points as we saw against Cincinnati in Week 8.
This game looks the best for fantasy on paper. We have a high over-under and two defenses that allow a lot of fantasy points to begin with. Cleveland is the 10th-worst team at shutting down opposing fantasy receivers and allow an average of 25.4-FPPG. Additionally, they allow 246.7 passing yards per game, which should have an asterisk by it given how many bad weather games they’ve had in their defense’s favor.
Davis in this spot becomes a player to flex, and possibly
may finish as a WR2. Start him up and get him into your lineups, but he is not a guy you have to force into your lineup.
Sit – Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE) @LAC
Coming in quietly is the Los Angeles Chargers who are extinguishing wide receivers to the tune of 21.5-FPPG, sixth-fewest in the league. And in their last three games, Los Angeles has smothered opposing passing games and limited them to 175 passing yards per game, fourth-best in that span.
We know that Cam Newton will struggle to move the ball through the air, it has been an issue all year long, and that is the problem with relying on Meyers. Even if his quarterback was more efficient with his dropbacks, Meyers will likely have to contend with a solid secondary unit on the road. Being on the road, even without fans in attendance, seemingly does affect teams and with a quarterback as inconsistent as Newton, you should be wary to play any of his passing weapons.
It does not help that Meyers has seen a usage drop since picking up 31 targets between Weeks 8-through-10, as he is down to nine targets over his last two games. In addition to the week quarterback-play, seeing his usage drop makes Meyers a player you should be willing to sit in Week 13.
Start-Sit Week 13 — Tight End
Start – Jordan Akins (TE, HOU) vs IND
This play is less about the matchup and more about the opportunity that will be in front of Akins now that Will Fuller has been suspended. Indianapolis has cracked down on opposing tight ends, allowing 4.9-FPPG which is the third-best. Of course, this makes the match up scary, but Houston is going to have to spread the ball around with Fuller’s absence and it is obvious that Indy will focus primarily on an explosive player like Brandin Cooks.
This game is going to see points scored and that seems to be tough to come by in Week 13. With a 50.5u, this game is one of the highest projected games for scoring. Where there are points scored, fantasy points are sure to follow. The player Akins will likely see in coverage is Anthony Walker and PFF has this match up as the third-most exploitable when comparing their PFF grades. This is likely because Walker allows a 78-percent catch rate to opposing receivers.
Akins is a typical 2020 tight end this week, in that he could absolutely dud in this spot; however he does have upside given his team’s situation. Start him up and hope for a touchdown so he can solidify his value for the week.
Start – Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) @JAC
Minnesota is expected to pounce Jacksonville and that bodes well for Dalvin Cook. But with how much Cook has been beaten up of late, Rudolph could easily mix in with a few red-zone targets. Cousins loves going to tight ends in goal-line situations and their starting option, Irv Smith Jr, has not participated in practice leading up to Week 13, leaving Rudolph to man the role primarily.
Without Smith in the lineup in Week 12, Rudolph finished with seven receptions on eight targets for 68-receiving yards and 10.3 fantasy points. Jacksonville has been an advantageous opportunity for opposing tight ends and they allow the second-most fantasy points to the position at 10.1-FPPG.
With a putrid tight end landscape, this is an easy opportunity to go right back to the well. Start Rudolph up with decent confidence in Week 13.
Sit – Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) @GB
The question becomes, why would Ertz excel in this match up? Well, he likely won’t and that is because he has failed his managers all throughout 2020.
Green Bay has done a good job at shutting down opposing passing offenses and only allows an average of 230.5 yards per game. Against tight ends specifically, their success continues as they have limited the position to 5.6-FPPG, seventh-lowest in the league. Ertz has never scored above 10.5 fantasy points in a single week. Even in his only week with a touchdown, he still failed to record double-digit fantasy production.
The Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz looks to be a dumpster fire right now and the city of Philadelphia has done all but force a change to rookie Jalen Hurts. If Hurts comes in under center, who knows where the ball will go. Ertz will also have to compete with Dallas Goedert and Goedert has easily looked like the preferred option for this Philly offense.
One thing is for sure, don’t let Zach Ertz ruin your season further. He has been a thorn in your side since Week 1 and in Week 13 he is no different. Sit him and play the wait-and-see game.
Twitter QOTW
@marc_katabian asks: “Big Ben or Taysom Hill?”
I think both quarterbacks are certainly in play so at that point I would likely default to the better projected game-scenario. Looking at Roethlisberger and Hill’s game-lines, Vegas has labeled these games with a 42.5u and 45u, respectively. Looking at the teams that they will face, Pittsburgh will face-off against Washington and New Orleans will travel to play Atlanta.
Washington has surprisingly been great against opposing passing offenses. They get pressure on the quarterback without having to use heavy-blitzes and their corner backs hold it down enough within the secondary. What Washington lacks is consistent offensive output and that could limit the ceiling of the Steelers’ offense as well.
Atlanta on the other hand hand does not have a strong defense and their offense can put up points against tougher defenses. When you play a team like Atlanta, you hope their offense is executing because it tends to lead to shootouts which is much better for fantasy. Another bonus with Atlanta is that the game will be played indoors.
Hill seems to be the better option on paper this week. He is the focal point of New Orleans’ offense and Atlanta did not have an answer for him in their Week 11 game. Roethlisberger’s volume makes him playable, but the matchup against Washington’s defense isn’t ideal and the Pittsburgh defense could easily dominate and control this game alone with how bad Washington’s offense is.
