Don’t be that guy panicking after one bad week of fantasy results. I’m already seeing guys dropped on the waiver wire that will likely come around and be productive. Only the true studs will be good every week, and those guys are hard to come by.
Consider Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb all had six games in 2021 with less than 10 PPR points. Terry McLaurin had eight – the point is you have to have some patience. Now, if Cam Akers has another goose egg or two it might be advisable to hit the Gong Show gong (yes, I’m old and grew up in the 70s).
Who to worry about?
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
I really think this is not going to turn out well. The Titans only put up 20 points on a depleted Giants defense missing their two best pass rushers (Ojulari and Thibodeaux) at home – not a good sign. Henry is likely to catch about 9 passes this year, and I just don’t think the consistent touchdown production is going to be there to make him productive as he has been – and that’s if he stays healthy.
Dallas Cowboys
Yikes. I’m already regretting drafting Tony Pollard in the 7th round of one of my leagues. I was already almost 100% out on the Cowboys for months after they lost quality offensive linemen Conner Williams and Lael Collins in free agency. Then all-pro Tyron Smith was hurt recently – I was way out.
Then, Dak Prescott broke his thumb – now I’m way, way out on all Cowboys fantasy players. CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott owners, good luck.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
This was a concerning Week 1 for his fantasy owners. Not only did he have limited production and injure his foot, but the Steelers’ offense had serious trouble moving the ball against Cincinnati’s stout defense. The Steelers punted 8 times. That’s almost as many times as Mr. Rooney told Ferris Bueller’s mother Farris had been absent from school. This could also lead to Kenny Pickett sooner than later.
New England Patriots
Yuk. The only part of this offense most people were interested in was RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondrae Stephenson and they appear to be in a timeshare in a bad offense. Putting up 10 points on a mediocre Miami defense, not to mention Mac Jones tweaking his back, is not a good sign.
Maybe Matt Patricia (I think he’s the offensive coordinator) and more likely a Bill Belichick audible will pull it together, but I would not feel good about starting any Patriot right now unless matched up against a feeble defense.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Jaylen Waddle’s Week 1 game should be a little concerning to his owners. Yes, he ended up with a good game because of a long touchdown, but his lack of volume (5 targets) and Tyreek Hill’s massive volume (12 targets) make me wonder if Tua Tagovailoa is going to force-feed Tyreek every week. Playing a semi-productive offense, unlike the Patriots, that forces Miami to throw more to keep up would help. Ditto for Hunter Renfrow, minus the productive Week 1.
Who’s fine?
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
This guy got dropped in one of my biggest leagues this morning after his poor Week 1 showing. I will be putting in a claim for Dawson today. Knox ranked as TE #11 (#6 in standard leagues) in 2021 with nearly 600 yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s called Yahtze! type numbers in the barren wasteland world of tight ends.
Knox signed a $52 million contract a few months ago, is best friends with quarterback Josh Allen, is part of what looks to be the highest-scoring offense in the league, and just recently returned to the team after the tragic death of his brother. All of these things point to Dawson Know being just fine in 2022.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Not worried, even if Keenan Allen is healthy — too talented, too big of a contract, too much of a track record, too good of a quarterback, too good of an offensive line and overall offense.
Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG)
Do not, I repeat, do not drop Kadaverous (I borrowed this), I mean Kadarius Toney. Not gonna lie, I’m a little concerned about the whole zero targets thing in Week 1 – I was not expecting that for their most talented receiver.
With all of his injuries last year and in training camp this year, I have to think he is just working his way back into the rotation. I really think this guy is going to be a very productive fantasy player this year if he stays healthy. His stop/start ability, speed, and elusiveness are a notch above virtually every wide receiver in the NFL.
Is he a great route runner? Probably not, but his run-after-catch ability screams getting the ball in his hands with a lot of high-percentage short passes and letting him go to work making people miss.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
I’m guessing Javonte Williams would be more like the #10 pick in the first round as opposed to the late 2nd rounder he was in most drafts if given a draft do-over after Week 1.
While Melvin Gordon out-carried him (little surprising), Williams had 11 receptions on 12 targets. This is a huge number for a running back, and more importantly, Williams is graded by PFF as a top 2-3 talented running back in the NFL…and he looks it. Williams is as powerful running guys over as he is elusive making them miss – this is a rare combination.
As far as Gordon cutting into his workload, a couple of things. I highly suspect Williams will gradually take a bigger role in the run game as the year goes on because you guessed it, he’s better than Gordon, much better, and that’s not a shot at Gordon, he looked fine.
Williams is that talented – he looked much better than fine. Another factor to consider is the ridiculously competitive division he’s playing in. Pressure is already mounting on first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett after his questionable late-game decision in Week 1. Lots of experts believe Denver has the talent to win that division which will put more pressure on Hackett to play his best players more.
If Denver somehow doesn’t at least get in the playoffs with their talented roster (totally possible in that tough division), Hackett is going to have some serious explaining to do. How do you explain why we didn’t make the playoffs while giving arguably the most talented running back in the world 55% (week 1 numbers) of the RB touches? Do you think Hackett’s press conference after Week 1 was difficult? My advice to you – trade for Javonte Williams now if possible or be very happy you drafted him because he could be a league winner.
Cincinnati Bengals
I am not worried about this offense. Yes, the offense underperformed in Week 1 (excluding Jamar Chase), and Joe Burrow had 4 interceptions, but the Steelers’ defense is very good and Joe Burrow missed almost all of training camp after having an appendectomy. Once he gets in a groove this will be one of the top offenses that you want a piece, if not two, of.
Random ruminations
The Lions look like they’re going to make a big jump and support several relevant (maybe even Jared Goff) fantasy players this year. Detroit’s production against a likely good Eagles defense is a very good sign, especially for stud running back Deandre Swift, this guy is in for a big year. The Lions’ high-level offensive line is going to make guys like Amon Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark startable most weeks.
Vikings vs. Eagles — This will be an interesting matchup with two high-scoring offenses against what should be two greatly improved defenses if you ignore Detroit putting up 35 points on Philadelphia (see Detroit write-up above). The implied total here is Eagles 28 Vikings 26. The Vikings’ defense looked better than expected vs Green Bay…free agent additions Za’Darius Smith, Jordan Hicks, and Harrison Phillips appear to have beefed them up. I like the Vikings here in a mild upset…I also like the Vikings to win their division.
I don’t understand the Rams implied total of 29 this week. Yes, they’re playing Atlanta, but this is not the same Rams offense as 2021. The Rams’ offensive line, after losing Andrew Whitworth for starters, looks like it will struggle against any team with a good pass rush. Yes, the Bills’ defense is good, but I feel confident a good Rams offense would have put up more than what they did against it (10 points). Cooper Kupp still looks dominant, but I’m pretty sure Rams yardage and scoring numbers are heading south this year.
For the 49ers, ditto Rams from above but insert Deebo Samuel for Cooper Kupp. Samuel is the only 49er I would want to start right now and for the foreseeable future – too many offensive line losses. Scoring 10 points on a below-average Bears defense is not a good sign. Before you say it was in a monsoon, consider the Bears’ struggling offense put up 19 points on the tough 49er defense in that monsoon. I think the 49ers take a step back offensively this year. I’d take the under on the 49ers’ implied total of 25 versus a surprisingly physical Seattle defense based on their game vs Denver.
I’d be a little concerned about Tom Brady‘s production this year. It appears Todd Bowles is going to be much more conservative when it comes to throwing the ball compared to Bruce Arians. Chris Godwin getting hurt doesn’t help. Maybe this means an uptick in Leonard Fournette’s running volume?
Cordarrelle Patterson – This can’t continue, right? Old guy behind a bad offensive line and a bad quarterback and he pounds out 120 yards on 22 carries against a good defense? Stranger things I guess.
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