Your fantasy team looks so good right now.
Everyone is healthy and there’s nothing but potential.
The sky is the limit for everyone, including those flyers on your bench.
Until it’s not. Because it’s fantasy football. The gods will find a way to wreck that pristine lineup of yours, and the only question is when this will happen.
For you, it may be Week 6 or Week 3. It could be Week 1. Players don’t pan out. Depth charts that we were sure of in August dissolve in front of your watering eyes. Then there are the injuries. There are so many injuries in this game, and it doesn’t have to be an injury to your player to affect their season. It could be to their quarterback or the offensive line.
Maybe the head coach is bad. Like, really bad. Maybe they like to run the ball up the middle five plays in a row and your star receiver is wide open by, like, 20 yards. Whoops, the quarterback just didn’t see them. Whoops, the head coach does like your star receiver’s attitude and now he’s in there to block for another run up the gut for 2 yards.
I promise you one thing this year: your lineup will not hold up until the end of the year. It never has and it never will.
Hope for 3 or 4 players to stay healthy throughout the season.
Really.
Take your lineup and just discard 6 players. Go ahead and do it mentally. This will hurt. Feel the sting. Do it now before you’re blindsided one Sunday in early October.
The key to winning therefore is not so much your draft. Your draft is the foundation, but it’s the moves you make throughout the season that will determine if you’re a champion in Week 16.
It’s being aggressive on the waiver wire.
It’s about looking at your league mates’ rosters to see if there’s a potential trade.
It’s about being as rational as possible in an irrational game. So much of fantasy football is emotional. We feel it in our veins when our player scores a touchdown. We cannot help it. We are humans, but we must always return to that rational baseline. That’s how we preserver.
I like to write about fantasy football in my free time. I enjoy making start/sit decisions. I’m not right 100% of the time. No one is. I hope I am right more than I am wrong, but I, like all other analysts, do not have a crystal ball. The one thing I can tell you with absolute certainty is that you need resilience to win this game. I did not know this starting out. I got discouraged after my starting RB tore their ACL in September. I threw away my seasons too early.
Consider the top PPR running backs in fantasy last year during the playoffs. Do you know who they were? Derrick Henry? Jonathon Taylor? Austin Ekeler? No, no and no.
It was Duke Johnson, Justin Jackson, and Rashaad Penny.
That’s right: guys you could’ve plucked from the waiver wire. They were sitting there all season long.
You too can find these running backs during this year’s fantasy playoffs. You don’t need the top running back to win.
You just have to be resilient.
Fantasy football Week 1 start ’em
Wide receivers and tight ends to start in Week 1
The Bills-Rams game has the potential to be a shootout, so give me both Allen Robinson and Gabe Davis. Sure, both these teams have good defenses, but there’s every reason to believe there will be a lot of scoring here. Remember, the last two season openers hit 54 and 60 points, and with how explosive these two offenses are I would not be shocked if it topped those numbers
Another game in which I think we’ll see a lot of scoring is Jacksonville against Washington, so I really like Terry McLaurin. He’s a burner, and Jacksonville loves to be burned by the pass.
While we’re at it, we can certainly bank on Green Bay-Minnesota being high scoring, right? Take out last winter’s negative-zero game in Wisconsin and you’ll see that they’ve played each other close lately. The last four matchups have averaged just less than 60 combined points. Jaire Alexander on Justin Jefferson will be fascinating to watch, and if they place the stalwart CB on Jefferson you’ll see more looks to Adam Thielen and you can even throw KJ Osborn in there.
Speaking of tough CB/WR matchups, there’s a good chance Devante Adams and JC Jackson are locked up. The Charges sought to improve against the tight end position, so I think that allows for more targets for Hunter Renfrow. The Chargers and Raiders play each other close and tend to feature a lot of touchdowns. Their past six match-ups have yielded an average of 52 points/per game.
One game that I think will not have offensive fireworks is Denver vs. Seattle. Still, I think Noah Fant can find a way to the end zone. Shane Waldron’s offense features the tight end, and you’d think after Drew Lock lost the starting job Seattle will want to prove, at least for one game, that they got one quality player back in the Russell Wilson trade. No matter the Broncos were actually one of the top teams against tight ends last year. Oddly enough, this may matter more for the Seahawks’ front office than the player himself. Redemption must be had!
Running backs to start in Week 1
We need to figure out the depth chart for the Eagles this year, but I don’t think their matchup against the Lions is going to help us. The Lions are just so bad. Go ahead and start Miles Sanders if he’s healthy. I also like Kenneth Gainwell in DFS. There will be many touchdowns to claim! Last year Philly marched into Ford Field and won 44-6 on the back of 236 rushing yards and 4 TDs. This was the get-right game that turned the tide of their season. This will be nothing short of a homecoming for them.
Speaking of homecomings, Elijah Mitchell dismantled the Bears last season on 7.61 yards/carry, finishing with 137 yards and a touchdown. Expect more of the same in Week 1. The Niners love to establish the run in road games, and I think they’ll take some heat off Trey Lance and allow him to hand off the ball. The Niners are road favorites too, which always bodes well for running backs.
We don’t know who the starting running back will be Week 1 for the Baltimore Ravens, whether it’s Mike Davis or Kenyan Drake. Keep a close eye on this, and grab Davis or Drake if they’re available. (This assumes JK Dobbins will be out.) The Ravens beefed up their offensive line and get to play the J-E-T-S. Let everyone else in your league laugh when you start Mike Davis Week 1. Whoever is running behind that line will rack up fantasy points.
Washington had a middling run defense last year and is more susceptible through the air, but I think Travis Etienne Jr. has a nice game. James Robinson is working his way back, so he should see the bulk of the workload out of the backfield. He’s more of a plus in PPR leagues.
Finally, I think both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have a shot at good weeks here. Minnesota ranked 26th against the run last year, and as I had mentioned earlier these matchups usually end in high-scoring affairs.
Quarterbacks to start in Week 1
One of the teams that looked really good this preseason was the Jacksonville Jaguars, and there’s no way but up after last year. They were able to move the ball effectively and now that Trevor Lawrence has upgraded pass-catchers, a second year in the league, and, most important, a functional head coach, he’s posed to make a leap. Who better to start that against than last year’s No. 32 team against QBss, the Washington Professional Commanders?
I also like Carson Wentz on the other side of the ball. I can’t believe I just wrote that, but it’s true. The Jaguars have improved, but mostly on offense. Their defense is still a sieve and Wentz loves nothing more than to lure you in with a few good games before he totally self-destructs.
And now to cleanse my palate I shall bring up Aaron Rodgers. I am sure you’ve heard of him. If you have him you may be wondering about starting him though given he went so late in drafts. He owns the Bears, but don’t worry Vikings fans: he owns you too. Since 2020, when he started to excel in the LaFleur system, he has averaged 332 yards/game and 3.25 TDs/game against Minnesota. No Davante Adams, no worries.
Finally, a gut-dart throw, but I am going to say Marcus Mariota will have a better game than you think against the Saints. He looked good in the preseason and was, surprisingly, the No.1 QB in a handful of advanced statistics. Take that for what it’s worth. He can gain yards both with his legs and throwing to this guy named Kyle Pitts. The Saints defense is good, but not as good as last year, and the Falcons have a lot to prove this year. They’ve been told all offseason they suck. They very well may be, but we see teams like this play with pride the first month. Don’t be surprised if they pull off an upset against an in-division rival at home in Week 1.
Defenses (D/ST) to start in Week 1
I like it when a stellar defensive line goes up against a horrible offensive line, so I have to love the 49ers D/ST this week against the Chicago Bears. Justin Fields is going to be running for his life. We saw this last year when the Bears played the Bucs, who also had a great defensive line. Fields went 22 for 32 for 184 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs. He’s going to be under duress all day.
I love revenge games, especially when a bad quarterback goes against his former defense. For all the headaches the Browns D/ST have caused themselves with Deshaun Watson it can be forgotten that their defense is top-notch. When everyone’s healthy it’s up there amongst the elite. And now they get to play the very QB they were wrecking year in and out during practice? Sign me up.
Dolphins D/ST are playing the Patriots, and this in-division rival always plays them hard, especially when this game is down in Florida in September. As of this writing, it will be 91 degrees and rainy, meaning it will be hot and humid and a greater chance for stagnant offenses. There’s also the news too out of Boston that this offense just plain sucks. Belichick has been rebuilding it since McDaniels left and put it in charge of two ex-defensive coordinators. That always works out well. This may be an Icarus moment for Belichick, and it could start Week 1 in wet and buggy Miami.
Fantasy football Week 1 sit ’em
Wide receivers and tight ends to sit in Week 1
Water is wet.
The sky is blue.
The New England Patriots will scheme out your best offensive player.
All of this is widely understood. The top player going against the Pats’ defense in Week 1 is none other than Tyreek Hill. He may be the top wide receiver on your team, but he belongs on your bench this week.
Another top receiver that will struggle this week is DJ Moore. He’ll be going against Denzel Ward and will have Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball. The Browns will want nothing more for the first 11 games to turn games into three quarters and grind it out. This usually does not procure a ton of fantasy points, unless we’re talking about an elite QB. Again, this is Baker Mayfield here.
I also think Darnell Mooney will struggle this week for the reasons I pointed out in my starts for the 49ers D/ST. Fields will be under pressure all game, and not the awesome kind that features Freddie Mercury and David Bowie.
You may think that because Tyreek Hill will be held in check you should start Mike Gesicki, to which I say that’s a bad idea. Everything out of camp is talking about how he’s going to be more of a blocker than a receiver, and when he will be lined up wide he’ll be No. 4 behind Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Chase Edmonds. Don’t even try.
Running backs to sit in Week 1
If we can harken back to last year, we remember that Ezekiel Elliott produced 33 yards on 11 carries against the Buccaneers. Fast forward to this year and this is the initial game without Tyron Smith at left tackle, so suffice it to say I don’t expect that number to dramatically change. The good news is that this will probably be his worst game out of the season and you can see it coming.
There’s a lot of hype around Dameon Pierce in Houston, and he has the potential to be good this season. It’s not going to start against the Indianapolis Colts, the 5th best fantasy defense against the run last year. We have not seen Pierce yet as a receiver out of the backfield, so his ceiling is very limited this week.
Another team you don’t run on is the Arizona Cardinals, and with all the questions in the backfield, it will not be a good week for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He is one of the worst in the league with rushes of 20+ yards or more, so if you start him you have to cross your fingers for a lot of first-and-goal situations. That’s never a great place to be.
Quarterbacks to sit in Week 1
We love the revenge-game narrative but rarely does it amount to a windfall of fantasy points for the spurred quarterback. Peyton Manning in 2013 against the Colts may be the exception, if only because he was in fire mode the entire year. Remember that this game is just as much to the opposing team, and if they feel that they lost the trade—which you did, Seattle.
You did—then it only heightens its importance. This is Seattle’s Super Bowl. They have to win this game, and because they have Geno Smith at quarterback expect this to be a tough game won on field position. Russell Wilson will be great this year—you just better find a pivot for Week 1.
