“Invincibility lies in the defense; the possibility of victory in the attack.” – Sun Tzu.
One of the most undervalued positions I see a lot of fantasy players hemorrhage points at is the defense (the DST). The second issue is incorrectly looking at the defense and knowing the difference between fantasy and non-fantasy value. The stars are aligned this week for Eagles RB Miles Sanders as he rushes behind the number one offensive line vs. the Bears’ worst defensive line. A game script projecting the Eagles to pile on points sets him up for a fantastic day. This game screams the Bears need to overcome a lot to have a valuable day.
So how do we locate a defense that fits into winning lineups? Start by looking at two main components, adjusted line yards and O-line vs. D-line rankings. Next, does the team pass a lot? Just because Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, etc., have high floors doesn’t mean they won’t get sacked or throw picks in low-scoring games. This week, I see an example with low ownership: the Patriots’ defense. They are projected to lose and see Vegas put 24 points on the board. The Pats D-line is ranked 13th, and the Raiders’ O-line is 27th. The Patriots give up the 2nd least amount of fantasy points to RBs. 5th in fantasy points; they are a top 5 D! This is a savings perspective that allows you to pivot off the chalk plays or expensive defenses with a greater chance of success but at a much higher cost. Now there are extra funds to allocate to skill positions. I’ll leave you with this, the GOAT, Tom Brady, has more passing attempts than anyone this season, and he is ranked as QB 15, and defenses have feasted off of this offense. Be smart and think strategically.
Week 14 Review:
1) Kirk Cousins QB, MIN $6,100 – Kirko Chains racked up a winning week with 28.00 fantasy points. (Then yesterday, he had the greatest comeback in NFL history. – “YOU LIKE THAT!”)
2) Miles Sanders RB, PHI $6,200 – Sanders smashed it last week with a superb finish to the day with 31.50 fantasy points. I am going back to back on him this week.
3) Mike Evans WR, TB $6,400 – Look! Up in the sky! It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s Mike Evans diminishing fantasy value! What is going on with the pewter and red this season? Evans finished the day with 8.4 fantasy points, and I should have learned my lesson. I have Evans and Brady stacked in many lineups this week vs. the Bengals. I am ready to hurt again and again until I can say I told you so.
4) T.J. Hockenson TE, MIN $5,100 – This wasn’t the revenge game special, but we got 12.70 fantasy points putting him as the 6th best TE of the week.
5) Travis Homer WR, $5,000 – “Doh.” I am lucky this Homer didn’t get me a donut. Measely 5.4 fantasy points were gained in the flex spot.
6) Buccaneers DST, TB $2,900 – I am telling you, do not listen to anything I say about the Buccaneers. – 2.00 fantasy points, I owe you better than this, and I have done my homework to redeem myself this week.
Week 15 ‘Pick-Six’ Pics:
1) Dak Prescott QB, DAL $6,200 – Dak is set up for success this week. I am all over Tom Brady lineups, but I can’t pass the pain to you. With the Cowboys in the 3rd highest-scoring game, this one has an easier path to a shootout. I don’t see the Chiefs getting blown up by the Texans’ backups, and although the Bears could hang around against the Eagles, the stats show DAL vs. JAX to be the safer play. Dak is throwing underneath passes to RBs, gutting teams up. Dak has the mobility to extend plays and steal a rushing TD or get in on a short passing TD to a TE or RB. With his versatility and proven scoring ability, I project Dak to outpace his salary value this week.
2) Miles Sanders RB, PHI $6,200 – If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. Sanders smashed last week, and he is somehow only $300 more against a lesser defense in a similar game script; sign me up.
3) CeeDee Lamb WR, DAL $7,300 – This price isn’t scary when paired with a $6,200 QB and a cheap Cowboys WR Gallup ($4,500) or TE Schultz ($4,400) to stack with. Lamb has the highest ceiling for the team, and the Jags won’t get pressure to stop the ariel attack. Lamb owns the target share of this team and is in an excellent position for a successful day.
4) Gerald Everett TE, LAC $4,300 – This matchup play has great potential. Last week TE Evan Engram went gangbusters and torched the Titans for 42.20 fantasy points. I’m not expecting the same result, but it can be a big day for Everett. The Titans have not been able to contain TEs, and they bring pressure. High-pressure teams usually leak fantasy points to TEs because of all the quick dump-offs. I am projecting a floor of 7 targets to Everett, and if he can succeed with those, he’s paid for himself in a week full of Kelce chalk and other TE projecting higher ownership.
5) Dare Ogunbawale RB, $4,700 – Do you enjoy living on the precipice of the unknown? Do you look at it as an opportunity instead of a dead end? Then this play is for you. I am projecting a minim of 15 carries and four targets. I Dare you to take him with me to the promised land. Dare has a 22 fantasy point ceiling that I want a part of. The Texans have remained efficient running the ball all season. The last time Dare was given a starting opportunity, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry. The cost to save for your studs put Dare in and enjoy this rocket explodes at lift off or sail over the moon.
6) Patriots DST, NE $2,800 – This pick has been covered in the write-up. There will be opportunities against this LV offense.
