Week 4 betting picks: Teasers and over/unders

Week 3 continued our winning times with teasers, I went 2 for 2 again (the only loss was the bonus teaser, man the Cowboys love to choke when everyone believes in them) and hope to keep the good times rolling! So far, our regular teasers are 4-0 and if you include the bonus teasers we are sitting at a very pretty 5-1. We look to continue the hot streak below.

We also figured out the unders last week going 2-0! Unfortunately, we didn’t hit our overs as both games ended up being blowouts with one team deciding not to show up (thanks Buccaneers and Commanders). I like a lot of the unders again this week and think it will be a lower-scoring week overall. There weren’t as many overs that I liked this week, but I think we found two winners below (as ugly as they are). We will look to keep our under streak going while getting our over-picks back on track.

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Hopefully, we will be able to keep the good times rolling and pick some more winners this week, let’s get to it.

6-point Teaser of the Week

Eagles (-2) vs. Commanders – While I don’t think the Commanders get beat as badly as last week, I do think the Eagles have more than enough firepower on both sides of the ball to win by at least a field goal. The biggest mismatch of the game looks like the Eagles’ ferocious D-Line against Washington’s O-line and Sam Howell. Expect the pressure to get to Howell and some turnovers to follow. On the offensive side, Hurts is 22-8 straight up since taking over as starting QB and will do enough on offense to get the W.

7-point Teasers of the Week

Chiefs (-2.5) at Jets – This seems like it will be the game everyone teases this week, but that doesn’t make it a bad play. Patrick Mahomes isn’t good at covering big spreads, but he is good at winning by at least a field goal. Plus with Chris Jones back the Chiefs’ defense is very underrated. Give me the best QB in the world against Zach Wilson.

Buccaneers (+10.5) at. Saints – This seems like an overreaction to the Eagles putting a beatdown against the Bucs on Monday night, especially with it looking like Derek Carr won’t play. While I love the Saints’ defense at home, I don’t like Winston back in the starting lineup at QB. The Bucs can stop the run which will force Winston to throw which should give them ample opportunities at turnovers which Jameis is prone to. Getting over 10 points is a steal in a division game that should be a defensive battle.

Bonus Game of the Week Teaser (6 points)

Dolphins +9.5 at Bills/Dolphins at Bills over 47 – These might be the two best teams in the AFC not named the Kansas City Chiefs, so why not make a teaser to make some money while sitting back and enjoying this masterpiece of a game?

Teasing the Dolphins through 3 and 7 feels really nice when you can make an argument they are the hottest team in the league right now, and that they have the explosive offense to backdoor cover this if the Bills get out ahead. I see that as a worst-case scenario though as this seems like a “last team with the ball wins” type of game. With these teams combining for 107 points last week, we have no choice but to tease the over as our second leg.

Overs of the Week

Vikings at Panthers (Over 46.5) – So far through 3 weeks we know two things about the Vikings, they can score on anyone and they can’t stop anyone. They are the perfect team to target for overs every week, but especially this week against a Panthers team that gave up 37 points last week to the Seahawks. The Panthers have proved whether it’s Bryce Young or Andy Dalton at QB they have just enough on the offensive side of the ball to get some points on the board. This is a bet against two bad defenses, enjoy the scoring. 

Broncos at Bears (Over 46.5) – Well I told you the over-picks this week were going to get ugly. Neither of these teams is good at football, but it appears that their defenses are actually worse than their offenses. Everyone knows the Broncos gave up 70 last week but the Bears opponents have been averaging 35.33 points per game this season (good enough to rank 31^st only better than the Broncos). Time to hold our nose and bet this over, when you get a chance to bet against the two worst defenses in football you take it.

Unders of the Week

Bengals at Titans (Under 40.5) – If Joe Burrow was fully healthy this would look to be a great bounce-back game for him as the Titans have one of the worst passing defenses in the league, but with the injury, the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball against Tennessee. The Bengals’ defense looked amazing last week shutting down McVay and Stafford and should do the same against the Titans’ offense that looks old and lost. The Titans and their 3 points helped us to get the under last week, let’s take them to do it again.

Ravens at Browns (Under 40.5) – Don’t look now but the Browns may have the best defense in the NFL, and with the injuries the Ravens have their offense will have a tough time manufacturing points. The Browns are only giving up 10.7 points per game this year and most of those points came from the Steelers defense. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens’ defense matches up well against the Browns. Roquon Smith and the run defense will shut down Ford and Hunt leading to Deshaun Watson having to throw the ball more often than he wants to. As seen in the Steelers game making Watson a passer in 2023 can lead to multiple turnovers for the defense. Take this low-scoring division battle to keep our under streak going. 

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