Week 2 betting picks: Teasers and over/unders

No matter how good you think you are at sports betting (and we all think we’re Jimmy “The Greek”) always remember that the people making up the lines in Las Vegas are better than you. That’s how they keep building all those fancy casinos and sports books.

But don’t fret, not all hope is lost yet for we have a solution to beat the big bad sports books: The Teaser. While it seems impossible to beat the sharp numbers that books put out nowadays when given a 6/7 point cushion on a spread you like it gives you a fighting chance. The big catch is that you must find two to three teams you like to form your teaser versus just needing one game to hit for a straight-up bet.

The other key to teasers is to try to cut through key numbers as much as possible (10, 7, 3, 0) as most games will end with these spreads. So, find your two favorite spreads of the week and be happy to get an extra touchdown on top of your spread.

The other fun bets we will dive into below are over/unders. Be sure to Google key numbers for totals as well as there are clear trends that will help guide your picks for these. Remember as fun as overs are most can be inflated due to the public loving to bet them. If you like an over, it can also be a great piece to add to your teaser.

6-point teaser of the week

Bills (-2.5) vs. Raiders – This looks like a really nice bounce-back spot for the Bills after an embarrassing loss on Monday Night. I expect Jost Allen to bounce back nicely but if you’re still scared of a late pick 6 or fumble to ruin the -8.5 spread why not just take the 6 points to get the Bills to just win by a field goal. Last year the Bills didn’t lose a game by more than 3 all season. Time to circle the wagons! 

Falcons (+5.5) vs. Packers – Two teams coming off very good Week 1 performances, but it appears the Packers may be dealing with an injury to Aaron Jones which I think will significantly hamper their offense if he sits. Add in that Christian Watson may not play again, and this Green Bay team becomes more of a slow-paced and defensive team, which seems to play right into the Falcons’ game plan.

Also, add in that the Packers’ weakness on defense is their run game and this looks to be a clock-moving, low-scoring, high-run volume kind of game that gets Arthur Smith up in the morning. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Falcons win outright but I think worst case this game comes down to a field goal.

7-point teaser of the week

49ers (-0.5) at Rams – Going into Week 1 it looked like the 49ers and Steelers were going to be an even matchup, not! The 49ers proved once again that they may have the best roster top to bottom, now they get a Rams team feeling good after a big week 1 win over Seattle but a team that is still missing its best player in Cooper Kupp. I think the 49ers will help the Rams’ offense come back down to earth after a surprise Week 1. Take the points and the 49ers to win.

Titans (+10) vs. Chargers – Since becoming head coach Mike Vrabel is the most profitable coach straight up as an underdog, now let us add 7 points on top of that. Vrabel is recorded as an underdog: 20-20 SU, 24-15-1 ATS, including 23-9-1 when the spread is +3 or higher. Vrabel is 11-7 SU in September – profiting $100 bettor $871 – best of any coach since his debut in 2018. Add in that Austin Eckler is dealing with an injury and things start to look good for Titans backers The Chargers seem to always find a way to keep games close, so give me the Titans and the points.

Overs of the week

Chiefs at Jaguars (Over 51) – The Jaguars look to be a team to keep an eye on for overs all year long, they have an offense that looks like it can be top 5-10 in the league but still have a defense that gives up big plays. Enter Patrick Mahomes coming off a loss and you can see how this becomes the offensive game of the week.

Travis Kelce has a chance to suit up but even if he doesn’t Mahomes alone will be enough to cave up the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville will match the scoring with Trevor Lawrence and his new weapon Calvin Ridley, who looked unstoppable in week 1 with a stat line of eight receptions on 11 targets for 101 yards and one TD. While Chris Jones coming back will hurt the over it should still take him a game or two to get back into football shape after sitting out all summer. Get in on this line quick in case Kelce gets ruled in!

Seahawks at Lions (Over 47.5) – When these two teams meet last year in week 4 the Seahawks topped the Lions 48-45, that enough should start making your mouth water as a bettor. The only difference from last year’s game is that both teams reloaded at running back making these offenses even more explosive on paper. While the Lions have improved their defense since last year it’s not nearly enough to stop this match-up from becoming a track meet again. The Seahawks played as poorly as possible on offense in week 1 so will need a big bounce back if they expect to get back into the playoff hunt.

Unders of the week

Jets at Cowboys (Under 38.5) – While this number is very low, we may be looking at a matchup of the NFL’s two best defenses this year. The Cowboys made the Giants look like they should get relegated to the SEC while the Jets defense made Josh Allen look like Nathan Peterman. The Jets game plan with Zach Wilson under center will be run early and often with the occasional shot to Garret Wilson, keeping the clock running and the score low. Mike McCarthy is happy to play that slow defensive style, so expect an old-school defensive slugfest in this one.

Packers at Falcons (Under 40.5) – There is nothing better for an under bet than a team that loves to run the ball and no team in the NFL that loves to run more than Atlanta. Atlanta hit the under in week 1 easily by playing improved defense and running the ball like it was the 1930’s. While the Packers will bring a much better offense than the rookie QB leading the Panthers in Week 1, they just won’t have enough chances to score as Atlanta will keep the clock moving. Add in that Aaron Jones still has not practiced this week and might be out, and you take away the most explosive player on Green Bay. If Jones And Christian Watson don’t play then I love this under.

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