Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and ask me a question on the start/sit thread!).
Each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, or Lamar Jackson.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are made.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Quarterback
Start – Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
An encore performance from Josh Allen is one of the most locked-in projections for fantasy this week. Miami’s defense will defend the passing attack better this year, which only widens the opportunity for Allen to torch them on the ground. You saw what happened to Miami’s defense against their Week 1 quarterback opponent, graciously giving up 155 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns to Cam Newton.
The biggest reason you should be on Allen is that the rushing upside will be there. Just last year Allen averaged 44 rushing yards per game against the Dolphins and scored one touchdown. His floor is safe because of his rushing baseline and if Allen has another ceiling game he easily could finish with a top-three fantasy performance this week.
Start – Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
Old man Rivers sure did fail to come through for his fantasy managers in Week 1. The new quarterback in Indianapolis threw for 363 yards, two interceptions, and one touchdown. Week 2 is a fresh opportunity and I feel that there is blood in the water for this fantasy shark. Last week Minnesota unsurprisingly got torched by Aaron Rodgers, giving up 364 passing yards and four touchdowns.
Do I think Rivers will deliver a reprise to Rodgers? No, but I do expect Rivers to get it together once again and find the end zone several times. This Minnesota secondary has completely turned over from last year and they are a team to target for quarterback streamers like Rivers. Rivers and his receivers are all something I will be looking to target this week, especially his secondary options for GPP and tournament DFS entries.
Sit – Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Even in 2020, Baker Mayfield still looked like the 2019 version of himself… and that’s not good. I cannot imagine how tough Baltimore’s defense would be to play against, nevertheless when they are a divisional opponent who knows you best, but we cannot discount this trend for Mayfield. The aforementioned performance wound up getting fantasy managers 189 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception which was good for less than 10-fantasy points.
And Week 2 will likely be a gritty and tough matchup (43.5 OU with CLE -6) since it is against another divisional rival, the Bengals. In Week 1 the Bengals held their quarterback opponent Tyrod Taylor to 208 passing yards with no touchdowns. Granted Mayfield possesses more talent than Taylor, but I would expect more of the same since Mayfield tossed five interceptions to this Bengals team in 2019. This game is also slated as the primetime Thursday game, which notoriously sees low scores and bad fantasy outputs due to the shortened week. Simply put, the risks of playing Mayfield far outweigh the rewards and you should take your chances with him on the bench.
Running Back
Start – Ronald Jones (RB, TB)
After his middle-of-the-road performance last week, I expect Ronald Jones to have a solid game against a friendly defense. When you look back on his Week 1 performance against the Saints it may not have a formidable stat line. But what we did see is that Rojo was the number one back for Tampa Bay (17 carries to Fournette’s 5). The Saints’ defense is no slouch either, yet Jones still had a respectable finish of 66 rushing yards and two receptions for 16 yards. That is a serviceable flex-play for any PPR formatted league.
This week’s opponent boosts Jones into the RB2 tier as he will take on the Carolina Panthers. Even with a new season, the Panthers were projected to repeat last year’s issues on defense; “issues” being that they do not ever stop running backs. In 2019 Carolina finished as the worst team in fantasy at defending running backs, and through Week 1 of 2020, it seems to be more of the same. Josh Jacobs clobbered this defense with 93 rushing yards, four receptions for 46 yards, and three touchdowns which was the number one fantasy performance at the running back position. Jones’ volume alone gets him in the RB2 conversation against the worst run defense and if Fournette does not vulture any touchdowns, there is some RB1 upside.
Start – Mark Ingram (RB, BAL)
His Week 1 performance confirmed what you were scared of and that is the emergence of J.K. Dobbins, but I find myself believing a different narrative. Yes, Dobbins will be someone that comes in and makes Ingram’s fantasy managers cry painful tears at times, but this is a backfield that had over 380 rushing attempts in 2019 (which does not include Lamar Jackson’s attempts). As for Mark Ingram, he had over 200 of the team’s aforementioned rushing attempts last year and he is not going to go away in 2020. The narrative you should believe is that Ingram can be a RB2/FLEX.
The downside is what we saw last week against Cleveland which was a blowout, and this is when Ingram can become treacherous. If I am the Ravens’ coach there is no way I am going to continue to run out Mark Ingram in a blowout, simply because of his age and because there were no preseason games. Plus we saw this formula with Ingram last year during Baltimore’s run of dominance.
Week 2 should be a more competitive game for the Ravens, who play against the Texans. Just last week Houston got torched on the ground against the Chiefs’ rookie running back, and Kansas City is a team that relies on their air attack. The formula and match up is there for Ingram’s bounce-back performance and given the game’s Vegas line (51.5 with -7 BAL) I would expect Ingram to be involved a lot more.
Sit (maybe cut) – Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET)
Wow, what a nightmare this backfield is for Kerryon Johnson and D’Andre Swift. These are two second-round NFL draft picks, within the past three years, and somehow Adrian Peterson is signed late in the preseason and gobbles up 14 carries in Week 1. While I can’t speak to the wasted draft capital by the Lions, what you should know for fantasy is that this is a three-headed backfield and it is going to be ugly for fantasy purposes.
Sadly enough, Johnson seems to be the lowest on the depth chart. There is no way that you can start Johnson and expect a reliable fantasy floor, you can’t count on him and that is evident after only one week. It would be one thing if there was passing work involved for Johnson but he finished with zero receptions while Swift and Peterson grabbed three each. The lack of receptions is an unsustainable trend but right now there is no hope for playing Johnson unless he hits a home run. You drafted Johnson for his talent, with the hope he could emerge as the starter in Detroit, and through Week 1 his upside is microscopic at best. Leave Johnson on your bench for Week 2 and monitor his usage carefully as he is trending towards being a player to cut.
Wide Receiver
Start – T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
This should come as no surprise if you have already skimmed the quarterback section of this article (see Phillip Rivers). My belief in Rivers certainly extends to his primary beneficiary, T.Y. Hilton. We all know that Hilton possesses slate breaking superpowers and in Week 2 he certainly could put them on display.
His opportunity couldn’t be better as the Colts will face the Vikings in an interleague battle. The Minnesota defense has normally been a team to avoid for fantasy managers but given the turnover of players on their defense, Minnesota is a team to target. Hilton’s speed and ability take this mismatch to the next level, as he easily could see one or even two deep-ball touchdowns (see DeVante Adams in Week 1). This game and this matchup Is every reason you drafted Hilton and it’s no secret that he could wind up as the number one, overall, wide receiver this week. Yes, his ceiling is that high.
Start – Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
The third-year breakout candidate was one catch away (and perhaps one flag away) from finishing with a solid PPR fantasy line. The targets and usage were certainly there against the Rams and in Week 2 against the Falcons you should expect Gallup to bounce back.
Atlanta’s secondary enters fresh off of being eviscerated by Russell Wilson, who is clearly one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Wilson wound up throwing for 300-plus passing yards and tossing four touchdowns. Dak Prescott and company won’t make it easier, especially with weapons like Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, C.D. Lamb, and obviously Gallup. Expect a WR2 finish from Gallup against a soft secondary. All you need to do is to take Gallup off of your bench, place him into your starting lineup, and lock him in.
Sit: Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
In what was a respectable NFL debut, former Alabama star wideout Jerry Jeudy is going to be a player to avoid in Week 2. If you watched the Week 1 Steelers versus Giants game, it should come as no surprise that Jeudy’s value will take a hit this week. Put simply, Pittsburgh is swarming the football and poses a serious threat to young quarterback Drew Lock. To the Broncos’ credit they held up against a great Tennessee defense but this Steelers defense is going to be better and more in sync.
Looking further into Jeudy’s fantasy outlook the biggest argument against playing him is that Week 1’s involvement could have been predicated around the absence of Courtland Sutton. If Sutton suits up there is no way you are going to risk Jeudy ruining your lineup, frankly Sutton as well for his fantasy managers. The matchup, combined with Sutton’s return from injury should make you hold Jeudy on your bench. Even after watching one Broncos game I can see that Jeudy is a player who could break off a big play at any given time. When arguably the best defense comes to town, the probability of a reliable fantasy floor is very low and the same could be said about his big-play ability.
Tight End
Start – Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
After a rough start in Week 1, look for Evan Engram to bounce back with a better performance. Though his 2.9 PPR points were not ideal against the Steelers, it is worth noting that Pittsburg’s defense is menacing. Insert his Week 2 opponent, the Chicago Bears, and it shouldn’t make you shy away from starting Engram.
In Week 1 the Bears gave up five receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson and I think that Engram can get some opportunities as well. Engram finished his last game with seven targets, a respectable number for a tight end. In terms of the confidence, you should have in Daniel Jones’ ability, I would not worry too much about the quarterback. Jones seems to be competent and talented enough to be a fantasy-relevant quarterback, with a quality ceiling. This matchup against Chicago does not move me off of Engram at all. Engram and the Giants will certainly rack up some passing yards which makes Engram a TE1 option this week.
Start – Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
Finishing Week 1 with four receptions for 36 yards and one touchdown, Jonnu Smith’s performance was ranked as the eighth-best PPR tight end. This game was a struggle for the Titans’ offense and ultimately they did enough to win, but you have to credit Denver’s defense. Smith’s Week 2 matchup grades out to be favorable for the tight end as Tennessee will go against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars’ defense is going to be a team to target in fantasy, despite their quality performance in Week 1.
In addition to the soft matchup, Smith possesses big-play ability for a tight end. Even if he enters the fourth quarter with zero receptions, you know that he could break off a 60-yard touchdown catch randomly. Plus, Smith gets fed a few rushing attempts here and there so you can factor that into the equation as well. All of this makes for a solid fantasy floor for Smith in Week 2 and of course, there is upside for him.
Finally, you need to remember that in years past Smith was not the starting tight end. In 2020, Smith will be featured as the undisputed starting tight end, no more Delanie Walker, which is part of the reason I have no problem starting him in a plus matchup.
Sit – Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
At the helm of this offense is Ryan Fitzpatrick and he is the gatekeeper for fantasy production for Gesicki. Unfortunately, FitzMagic is an extreme boom-or-bust player, and sometimes so much of a “bust” it kills the fantasy output of his receivers. Looking at Gesicki’s involvement in Week 1, he finished with three receptions on five targets which were good for 30 yards. That volume was low enough that it makes it easy to sit him against a tough Buffalo defense.
This Buffalo defense could be better than their New England rivals by season end, so this entire Miami squad is in danger of producing sub-par fantasy results. I like Gesicki the rest of the season, but against Buffalo, you want to give him a cozy view from your bench.
