This series will analyze every NFL team by division to forecast key fantasy football performances and overall team outlooks with futures bets in mind.
Divisional fantasy analysis:
AFC North | AFC South | AFC East | AFC West
NFC North | NFC South | NFC East | NFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Record: 14-3
Vegas Expected Win Total: 11.5 Wins (Over)
Team Outlook: The 2022 Super Bowl Champions look ready for another promising season in 2023. They are the Super Bowl favorites at +600 with the best quarterback/coach combination in football, so I wouldn’t suggest taking them under in wins. Patrick Mahomes proved he can still dominate the NFL without the best weapons after losing Tyreek Hill and still winning the NFL MVP. One of the main reasons for that is how great the Chiefs’ offensive line is and how incredible Andy Reid is as a playcaller. This is the best offense in football which opens up plenty of opportunities from a fantasy perspective.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes, Average Draft Position 15.0, QB1 (FantasyPros ADP)
Two things can be true. Mahomes is the best quarterback in real-life football, and Mahomes is not the best quarterback in fantasy football and you should not draft him in the second round. You won’t be mad taking Mahomes, he will probably win you weeks, but I don’t think he will take you to a championship based on what you have to spend for him.
The receivers and running backs in this area are more valuable based on positional scarcity and based on how many you need to start. He is incredible and will go nuclear in certain weeks, but I prefer drafting QBs in the middle rounds or late in search of the next breakout quarterback at a better value. He’s my QB3 behind Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco, Average Draft Position 71.0, RB29 (FantasyPros ADP)
Isaiah Pacheco is one of my favorite players to watch in the NFL. He runs incredibly hard and strong and has the speed to take runs the distance. Last year, Pacheco finished as the RB35. However, it was his rookie season and it took some time for him to take over the lead role.
From Weeks 11-18, when he established himself as the lead back in Kansas City, he was the RB14 in half ppr. In the playoffs, Pacheco shined in the Chiefs run game and was a big reason they won the Super Bowl. In those games, he averaged 14.3 touches per game and 11.73 half-PPR-points a game which would have been good for RB22 on the year. When the games meant most, they relied on Pacheco. At the 6th/7th round turn, I like the value of Pacheco in this high-powered offense.
Jerrick Mckinnon, Average Draft Position 127.7, RB43 (FantasyPros ADP)
I think Pacheco has a good grip on this job in Kansas City, but Jerrick Mckinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have a role to some extent. The Chiefs used Pacheco as a receiver last season, but they used McKinnon much more. At 31 years old, Mckinnon’s involvement should be on its way down, but if Pacheco can’t get it done as a pass catcher or blocker, Mckinnon will own that role again all to himself again this year. Mckinnon is 31 years old so I won’t be drafting him, but he could be a thorn in Pacheco’s side.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Average Draft Position 169.3, RB55 (FantasyPros ADP)
It’s crazy to think that Edwards-Helaire was drafted in the first round at 32 overall in the 2020 draft, and is now the third running back on his own team. He has no value other than an injury to Pacheco which could bring him some fantasy value. He’s a waiver add during the season if Pacheco goes down.
Wide Receiver
Kadarius Toney, Average Draft Position 111.0, WR43 (FantasyPros ADP)
Last year, the Chiefs acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants for a 3rd round pick at the end of October. The talent is incredible, but Toney has missed a lot of time and is currently injured with a knee injury although they expect him to be ready for week 1. While playing with the Chiefs, Toney’s snap count was never higher than 44% during the regular season. However, his usage rate was incredibly high garnering a 28.6% target per route run rate. Toney is another massive injury risk being drafted as a WR4 but has WR2 upside. As long as you’re willing to battle with the injury risk, Toney could be a nice value in 2023.
Skyy Moore, Average Draft Position 143.0, WR54 (FantasyPros ADP)
With Toney’s injury risk, I like Skyy Moore as a WR5. If Toney were to get hurt, which the track record shows he will, Skyy Moore would be the number two passing option for Mahomes. He has talent and apparently has been playing well in training camp in Toney’s absence. He’s a good late-round pick because he plays with Patrick Mahomes.
Tight End
Travis Kelce, Average Draft Position 6.0, TE1 (FantasyPros ADP)
The king of the tight end position, Travis Kelce once again finished as the TE1 and gave a huge positional advantage scoring almost 100 more half ppr points over the TE2, and 150 more points over the TE12. If you want the positional advantage, you can make an argument to justify Kelce in the middle of round 1. He would have finished as the RB6 and WR5 if he played those positions.
At 33 years old, with a slight chance to decline just a little, I am only taking him at the round 1-2 turn. I believe the gap won’t be as big this year between Kelce and other tight ends like Mark Andrews going two rounds later. I don’t see a fall off a cliff type of decline and he will still certainly be incredibly productive, but the price at ADP is a bit too high for me.
Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Record: 10-7
Vegas Expected Win Total: 9.5 Wins (Over)
Team Outlook: The Los Angeles Chargers had a relatively disappointing season last year. They made the playoffs for the first time in Justin Herbert’s career but blew a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in the wild-card round of the playoffs. After the season ended, the Chargers let go of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and brought in old Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Moore brought Dallas’s offense and Dak Prescott to new heights and I expect him to do the same. I am a huge believer in Herbert and think that he is one of the most if not the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. Rashawn Slater is back and the defense should be solid again with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. I like the Chargers to make the playoffs again this season and it could be a fantasy gold mine in 2023.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert, Average Draft Position 45.3, QB6 (FantasyPros ADP)
After a disappointing fantasy football season finishing as the QB11, the Chargers extended Herbert giving him a 5-year, 262 million dollar contract. Herbert had a down year for a variety of reasons.
One, he was battling a rib injury throughout the season that limited his throwing motion which Herbert stated in an interview with Colin Cowherd. Two, Rashawn Slater, one of the best left tackles in football, missed the majority of the season with injury. Three, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were constantly in and out of the lineup.
This season, Herbert is healthy, Rashawn Slater is back, and the Chargers still have Allen, Williams, and have added Quentin Johnston in the first round of the NFL draft. Not only that, but the Chargers bring in Moore as offensive coordinator. The pass attempts should be high, and the Chargers should throw the ball deep far more often. Under Moore, Dak Prescott finished as the QB3, QB1, QB9, and QB13 over the past 4 seasons. Herbert is much more talented than Prescott and has a chance to finish as the QB1.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler, Average Draft Position 4.0, RB2 (FantasyPros ADP)
Austin Ekeler has been a monster in fantasy football for the last two seasons. His involvement in the passing game and his absurd efficiency led to his finishing as the RB3 and RB1 in points per game the past two seasons. This year I have Ekeler ranked as my RB4 and expect a slight drop-off from the past two seasons. This past season Ekeler benefited from Allen and Williams missing a combined 11 games. This led to Ekeler being the best pass passing option in a lot of games and having the offense centered around him.
This year, Moore will use Herbert and air the ball out deeper as he did with Prescott, who finished the season tied for fifth in big-time throw rate (33.3%). This definitely could impact Ekeler’s target percentage. At age 28, I think Ekeler will still be good in fantasy, but maybe not league-winning like he has been the last two years.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen, Average Draft Position 44.7, WR19 (FantasyPros ADP)
When he plays, Keenan Allen has been incredibly solid for fantasy football. During Herbert’s career, Allen has finished as the WR11, WR15, and the WR12. The problem is in those seasons he played 14, 16, and 10 games. At age 31, he’s not getting any healthier moving forward. If the Chargers do air it out more, Allen would receive less of the volume underneath, which would benefit Johnston and Williams. I think Allen will still be valuable, but he’s an aging receiver who hasn’t been able to finish seasons. He’s my WR19 but I would rather take a high-end QB in round 4.
Mike Williams, Average Draft Position 67.7, WR28 (FantasyPros ADP)
On a points-per-game basis, Williams finished as the WR23 this past season. He is a big play receiver and has a talent for catching 50/50 balls. On this new style offense, he is the receiver that could pop, but so is Johnston. I have Williams as my WR30 but I like his upside to be the big play guy in the Chargers offense. The problem is I like getting Johnston later in the draft who could be the same thing.
Quentin Johnston, Average Draft Position 130.7, WR49 (FantasyPros ADP)
If I am grabbing a part of this offense besides Herbert, I am leaning toward Johnston over Williams and Keenan Allen. One because he goes significantly later than all three, but also the deep threat he poses in an offense that should air it out more. At 6’3” and 216 pounds, Johnston profiles like Williams but is slightly faster and of course, younger. Johnston may start off slow as a rookie, but he’s a great stash for the end of the season.
Tight End
Gerald Everett, Average Draft Position 179.7, TE19
When streaming tight ends, you can definitely do worse than Gerald Everett. He finished as the TE14 on a points-per-game basis but that was also with Williams and Allen missing time. This year Johnston as well. He’s a tight-end streamer at best but with a good touchdown upside week to week playing in the Chargers’ upside.
Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Record: 6-11
Vegas Expected Win Total: 6.5 Wins (Under)
Team Outlook: I fear this might be the worst team in the NFL this season. The Raiders lost QB Derek Carr this offseason and have brought in Jimmy Garoppolo to be their QB1. Garoppolo hasn’t been the poster boy for health in the NFL and while Josh McDaniels has been a great offensive coordinator, he has not shown the same promise as a head coach (17-28). Last season, the Raiders defense ranked 7th worst in the NFL on a points-per-game basis and 5th worst on a yards-allowed basis. What could turn this franchise around is the drafting of Caleb Williams to have a centerpiece in Las Vegas. They’re my pick to finish last in the NFL, but there are intriguing fantasy options.
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo, Average Draft Position 178.3, QB26 (FantasyPros ADP)
In one quarterback leagues, you’re not drafting Garoppolo. In two-quarterback leagues, he’s an interesting option. He has experience in McDaniels system and perhaps has the best wide receiver in football with DeVante Adams. At QB26, there could be some value in two-quarterback leagues if the Raiders trail often and have to pass a lot more to catch up which they should. He may also be hurt constantly however and be a wasted pick.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs, Average Draft Position 22.3, RB9 (FantasyPros ADP)
Drafted in the 5th round last year, Josh Jacobs was easily the most valuable player in fantasy football last season based on his performance and what you spent to get him. He finished as the fantasy RB3. This season has not been off to a hot start with Jacobs holding out because of a decision to not sign the franchise tag the Raiders offered him. While the holdout was scary, all signs point to him ready to go for Week 1. He’s my RB6 and a good value at the back end of round 2.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Average Draft Position 16.7, WR8 (FantasyPros ADP)
At 30 years old, you could argue that Adams might be the best receiver in football. Last year he finished as the WR3 on a points-per-game basis with Carr. Adams is a target hog who can still get open deep and has shown to be QB-proof in the past. In 13 games with Brett Hundley, Adams has 65 catches for 902 yards and 8 touchdowns. That is 13.1 fantasy points per game which would have been WR11 this past season. Garoppolo in the McDaniels system should be better than Hundley. I have Adams as my WR8, matching with ADP.
Denver Broncos
2022 Record: 5-11
Vegas Expected Win Total: 8.5 Wins (Over)
Team Outlook: After adding Russell Wilson, the Denver Broncos’ expectations were a mile high. They fell flat on their face and ended the season 5-11 with the worst offense in football averaging 16.9 points per game. This season they remind me of what happened to the Browns in 2019 and then in 2020. The team went 6-10 under Freddie Kitchens but then got a real coach in Kevin Stefanski and finished 11-5 winning a playoff game.
The Browns had a ton of hype in 2019 with sophomore Baker Mayfield and the addition of Odell Beckham but also fell flat on their face. The Broncos now have Sean Payton instead of Nathaniel Hackett which should make a huge difference offensively. From 2006 to 2019 (16 seasons) Payton’s Saints had a top 5 offense nine times (56%), a top 10 offense four times (25%), a top 15 offense twice (13%), and a top 20 once (6%). Meaning, 81% of the time he constructed a top 10 offense if you combine top 5 and top 10 finishes. I think the Broncos bounce back and have a solid year making the playoffs.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson, Average Draft Position 147.3, QB18 (FantasyPros ADP)
I wrote a previous article explaining why Wilson is worth a shot. To sum it up, I think Wilson still has juice and last season was made far worse with bad coaching and an overweight and distracted Wilson. Sean Payton makes all the difference and always had incredible offenses during his time in New Orleans. I like pairing Wilson with a big upside, high-risk quarterback like Anthony Richardson late in drafts. He’s my QB15.
Running Back
Javonte Williams, Average Draft Position 67.3, RB25 (FantasyPros ADP)
Coming off a brutal knee injury, Javonte Williams is a controversial pick in fantasy football this season. I know the data shows that the first year after a running back tears their ACL is bad, I’m in on Williams in 2023. First off, the talent is incredible.
Only 40 running backs have forced 60+ missed tackles in their rookie seasons since 2006 per Alex Caruso, and Williams is one of them. From a play-calling perspective, Payton’s backs in New Orleans averaged 31.1% of receptions per year, an incredibly high number, and 23.3 rushes per game. Wilson has scrambled far less in recent years which should continue running back targets out of the backfield. Payton reported Williams is 100% healthy, and I like adding him as an RB2 or 3 in rounds 6/7 of drafts. He’s my RB22.
Samaje Perine, Average Draft Position 110.0 RB38 (FantasyPros ADP)
If I miss out on Williams, I am also intrigued by Samaje Perine. Perine excelled as a pass catcher for Cincinnati last season with 38 catches and averaging 7.6 yards per catch (11th in NFL). He was also 4th in pass blocking amongst running backs according to PFF. This lends itself to Perine being the 3rd down running back in Denver. If Williams comes out of the gate slow, Perine could be a great value in drafts getting him as your RB4.
Wide Receiver
Jerry Jeudy, Average Draft Position 58.3, WR23 (FantasyPros ADP)
In the beginning of the offseason, I was incredibly high on Jerry Jeudy. I still like Jeudy though his injury status does need monitoring. Last year, he finished as the WR21 despite playing in the worst offense in football. From Weeks 13-18, he was the WR6. Still, Jeudy has never finished with above 1,000 yards in a full season. This season, I believe he has the upside to be a low-end WR1 with Payton as head coach and a hopeful bounceback from Wilson.
Courtland Sutton, Average Draft Position 121.3, WR46 (FantasyPros ADP)
I grabbed a ton of Courtland Sutton last year believing all the training reports and how he was Wilson’s go-to guy. This offseason, those reports are resurfacing again but I am out on Sutton, he’s my WR50. Yes, a bounce back is possible but last season he looked incredibly slow and clunky releasing off the line of scrimmage and breaking in and out of his routes. Yes, Payton could revive this offense, but if I am investing in the potential bounceback, I am going with Jeudy.
Tight End
Greg Dulchich, Average Draft Position 128.0, TE11 (FantasyPros ADP)
After finishing as the TE19 on a points-per-game basis in 2022, Greg Dulchich had some hype entering the 2023 fantasy season. He’s currently the TE11 off the board. However, in this last preseason game, Dulchich played exclusively as the backup tight end. He would need to have complete ownership of the starting spot, and it looks like he does not have it. I am out on Dulcich as a late-round TE.
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